The race for Champions League football next season continues to be too tough to call after another pivotal set of results in the Premier League.
Ahead of Nottingham Forest’s trip to Crystal Palace on Monday night, Chelsea, Manchester City and Aston Villa all recorded important wins... but Newcastle again dropped points.
In an interesting turn of events, Arsenal’s home defeat to Bournemouth means they are also not yet guaranteed a top-five finish, needing five more points from their final three games.
With that in mind, here is the state of the race to finish in the top five...
Top five race predicted
According to Opta, Manchester City now have a 97.69 per cent chance of finishing in the top five. Four wins of the spin, including a victory over Villa, plus the easiest run-in, on paper, of their rivals means Pep Guardiola & Co. appear set to return to Europe’s top table.
The same cannot be said of Nottingham Forest, who have lost three of their last four games. Opta gave them a whopping 80% of securing a first-ever qualification for the Champions League, since its rebrand over 30 years ago, but their chances are now almost halved to 44.32%
Newcastle United appear to have benefited most from Forest’s slump. Despite being thumped 4-1 by Aston Villa and then scrapping a 1-1 draw at Brighton, thanks to Alexander Isak’s late penalty, Newcastle still have a 77.89% chance of finishing in the top five.
Chelsea have impressed the most during the run-in. Handed the toughest run-in, a last-gap win over Fulham was followed by a narrow victory over Everton, and on Sunday they beat champions Liverpool. Those three wins have been the Blues’ chances climb from 29.73% to 66.52%.
Aston Villa have the weakest shot, sitting at 13.69%.
Who will finish in the top five?
