PSG v Barcelona
PSG do not have to look far for an example of what to do – and what not to do – against Barcelona. In September, the French side beat the Catalans 3-2 at home in the group stages without Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who was injured back then and will be suspended for the first leg of the quarter-final.
That victory owed much to the ferocious intensity with which PSG played, their ability to exploit Barça’s vulnerability from set-pieces, and excellent defending led by David Luiz. PSG’s defence is even stronger now – Thiago Silva did not play in September – and the victory over Chelsea can only have bolstered belief.
Barcelona deservedly won the return match 3-1 in December even though Ibrahimovic opened the scoring. But although Luis Enrique’s side enjoyed the lion’s share of possession, PSG were dangerous on the counterattack and would have scored more with better finishing.
Blaise Matuidi and Marco Verratti were superb until, astonishingly, Laurent Blanc took off Verratti with half an hour to play and PSG just a goal behind. That turned the match irrevocably in Barcelona’s favour and is a mistake Blanc is unlikely to repeat. The relative thinness of PSG’s squad is also something the manager will have to consider in the runup to this tie as competing on four fronts risks causing serious strains: in the week before the first leg, PSG contest a French Cup semi-final and then the League Cup final.
Prediction Barcelona to go through
Atlético v Real
Real surely did not want this draw. The Madrid neighbours have already met six times this season and Real have not won any, losing four and drawing two. “They were better than us in everything,” admitted Carlo Ancelotti after their most recent duel, a 4-0 bonanza for Atlético in February. The way Antoine Griezmann and Mario Mandzukic, in particular, tore into Real in that game suggested Atlético are understandably confident that they have Real’s number, and the way some of Real’s player seemed to give up towards the end of that match suggested they might agree.
Ancelotti has an urgent repair job to do. Even if Real’s outfield players do match the dynamism and fluidity of Atlético, the suspicion remains that, at some point in this tournament, Real are going to be made to pay for persisting with Iker Casillas in goal.
Prediction Atlético to go through
Porto v Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich have lost only once in 22 matches to Portuguese opponents – that was in the 1987 European Cup final, when Rabah Madjer scored the winning goal for Porto with a delicious backheel. Bayern will have to be wary of another Algerian this time, as winger Yacine Brahimi has been in terrific form as Porto have swept into the quarter-finals without losing a match, the only team to have achieved that feat this season.
Striker Jackson Martínez missed the second leg against Basel but that did not stop them from winning 4-0, and Martínez should be back for the quarter-final. So Porto are decent. But they still look serious underdogs against an awesome Bayern team.
Prediction Bayern to go through
Juventus v Monaco
This will be a very different tie to the one that Juventus enjoyed in the last round, when they allowed Borussia Dortmund to attack them before demolishing them on the counter. Monaco will be having none of that. So Carlos Tevez and Álvaro Morata will not be able to romp free behind a high defensive line.
The midfield battle will be fierce – Paul Pogba and Geoffrey Kondogbia were imperious alongside each other when France won the Under-20 World Cup two years ago – and, although the former will miss these two ties through injury, the Italian side looks to be stronger throughout, especially up front.
Juve are a far shrewder defensive side than Arsenal so are unlikely to lose their heads the way the Londoners did when conceding three times to Monaco in the first leg, but if Monaco are to score on the counter-attack, the most likely route may be through , who has the speed and skill to cause Patrice Evra all sorts of bother.
Prediction Juventus to go through
