Slowly but surely there has been a changing of the guard at Saracens this season. In the four finals they have won in the past three years Richard Wigglesworth has started all of them at scrum-half, implementing the gameplan to a tee. On Saturday it is Ben Spencer’s turn.
This match could be the making of Spencer. He has had a phenomenal season and sometimes you can forget he is already 26 – it would be wrong to call him a youngster. But he has had to remain patient, just as Jamie George did behind Schalk Brits, and that is easier to do when you play for Saracens, when you are involved, if not starting in finals, when you are so well looked after and you are surrounded by players of the highest calibre.
Eddie Jones will be in Newcastle and while there are a number of players he will be looking at, he will be keeping more of an eye on Spencer than anyone else.
We know Ben Youngs is Eddie’s number one scrum-half but we also know that he does not know who his number two is. Dan Robson was involved during the Six Nations but Eddie didn’t quite seem to trust him and he has since had a dreadful setback after developing deep vein thrombosis.
Eddie will know all about Danny Care but Spencer is what I would call a hybrid scrum-half. He has an excellent running game – he is rapid – but his game control has developed superbly over the last few seasons at Saracens. He has honed that skill under the tutelage of Wigglesworth – he has had to because Saracens are so reliant on a scrum-half playing that way – but now he has the full box of tricks. If he can perform to his best on one of the biggest stages against Leinster on Saturday it could ensure he goes to Japan.
Spencer’s role is so important because exiting strategies and the aerial battle are two areas that will go a long way to determining who will win. If Saracens are going to beat Leinster they have to exit well. When you have two No 10s on the pitch such as Johnny Sexton and Owen Farrell you know both sides are going to be penned in at some stage and, in matches such as this, the one thing you don’t want to have to do too often is execute high-pressured skills. Exiting is one of them; if you do it poorly you give up easy field position.
And whether it be restarts or kicks off No 9 or No 10, the aerial battle will be of huge significance. It’s a big part of how both teams play – Leinster are excellent at it but Saracens do it better than anyone, living off those crumbs from tap backs or winning the ball back. Saracens have scored the most tries from kick returns and in broken play as a whole so if Leinster kick poorly they may find themselves cut open. In saying that, Leinster have conceded only two tries within the first three phases in the competition – if you give Saracens a decent set-piece opportunity then the stats suggest you would back them but the stats would also suggest Leinster are really strong from set-piece play. It’s crazy how well balanced the two sides are and how they nullify one another.
I also look at the battle between the 15-metre lines and workrate as two more decisive factors. Rugby is a game about momentum and you look at the ball carriers these two teams have, how they look to get dominance on the gainline, if you can stop that it changes the way you’ve got to play. If Saracens can stop the big runners from Leinster in between those 15m channels then Sexton has to go to a kicking game and the same goes for Leinster. They are two teams with such aggressive linespeed so the moment you can shorten that you can create opportunities out wide. You also have to be ready to work harder than the opposition. Two teams with workrate as part of their DNA. If you get outworked you are going to find yourself in a world of pain.
You have a Leinster side who like to dominate possession, their ruck efficiency is 90% plus – it’s incredibly difficult to get the ball off them – against a Saracens side who are probably more comfortable without the ball than with it. It’s like the unstoppable force against the immovable object but something has to give. It could take a moment of magic from one of the back three, a drop-goal from 40 yards, it could be a big hit or it could be a decision from the referee. We are talking about small margins, there is nothing to separate the teams statistically or stylistically but I believe Saracens just have the edge in terms of physicality. I think there is a fair amount of hurt, sometimes it is a bit easier to chase than be chased and I predict Saracens will prevail by five points.
