In the imposing marble rooms of the Methodist Central Hall in the heart of Westminster on Friday, the great and the good of the progressive movement gathered at what many fear is an existential moment for their brand of centre-left politics.
Keir Starmer was on punchier form than usual, telling the summit audience that he was up for the fight against the populist right’s “industrialised infrastructure of grievance”.
But while his on-stage discussion with Canada’s Mark Carney and Australia’s Anthony Albanese was met with murmurs of approval from the room, there was an underlying unease that it might not be enough to counter the political storm unleashed by Nigel Farage.
“It all sounded so reasonable and reassuring,” said one former UK government adviser at the event. “But is the future really bright for progressives? Far from it. It’s bleak and scary.”
The scale of Starmer’s challenge at home – from the right, from a critical public and, increasingly, from within his own party – will be on stark display as he arrives in Liverpool for the Labour conference this weekend.
Much to his frustration, the prime minister’s autumn got off to a disastrous start as announcements on a US tech deal, the Hillsborough law and an expansion of free childcare were overshadowed by missteps and resignations that left doubts over his leadership.
With Labour MPs now openly questioning whether Starmer can survive, the party’s internal warfare broke into the open this week with Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, saying he would seek to challenge the prime minister if there was a path to doing so.
Starmer desperately needs this conference to draw a line under the chaos, to prove to his party and the country that he is best placed to challenge Reform despite lagging behind in the polls, and – perhaps most importantly – that he can leave them feeling hopeful for the future.
The prime minister’s allies admit he has a tough task ahead but insist he is determined to press on. “It’s a big, historic moment, Keir understands that. It’s a crossroads for the country. Lots of people think the UK is in fundamental decline, and the populist right only ever do well in those conditions,” said one senior aide.
“But there are ripples of hope, signs that things can and will get better. The country is facing some big structural problems but it doesn’t mean that progress can’t succeed. The summer, with all the protests and anger about immigration, made him realise he has to make the case for the sort of country he wants this to be.”
The conference strapline, “renew Britain”, is designed to get to the heart of the prime minister’s offer to the country. Downing Street insiders say his speech on Tuesday will be his most political yet.
“We want to unashamedly contrast with what’s on offer from Reform in terms of division and decline. They offer anger but no answers,” said a party official. “But it won’t just be about Labour v Reform, it has to be bigger than that.”
Starmer will make a case for what he calls “patriotic renewal”, which he told the summit on Friday involved not defending the status quo but delivering for voters. His plans to give tens of millions of pounds from an updated “levelling up” fund to help address anger about Britain’s broken communities are key.
An official said: “We’re serious about renewing the country. We’ll have a powerful story to tell to local people when they can see their high street revived, park restored, new life in their pubs and leisure centres – we’ll be able to tell them that Labour is making good on its promise of change.”
But Starmer’s words will also be aimed at Labour’s progressive wing, which includes many who feel they have been abandoned by the party. Senior No 10 figures say that is an unfair characterisation and – reeling off a list of achievements including the EU reset, clean power and public spending – say the speech will reassure this group.
While Starmer’s priority will be pushing his vision of a decent, moderate, fairer Britain, there are concerns that the conference, which throws together 17,500 politicos at the giant Albert Docks venue, will almost certainly foster more speculation over his own position.
Burnham’s team say the mayor is doing only a handful of fringe events but Labour’s “king of the north” will inevitably attract attention among the soft-left party membership.
The mayor is in No 10’s sights after he accused Starmer of having no plan to turn the country around and suggested he was running Labour in a “very factional and quite divisive” way. Downing Street figures said his remarks were disappointing and unnecessary.
“I don’t think changing leader is the formula we need,” a senior cabinet minister said. “The national debt doesn’t reduce because Andy is prime minister. Public services don’t suddenly leap into order. The problems don’t change by dropping somebody else into that space.”
The deputy leadership contest – in which Lucy Powell and Bridget Phillipson are battling to take over from Angela Rayner after she quit over her tax affairs – is another moment of danger. Much to the frustration of the contenders, the race is already being seen by some as a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.
Rayner herself will not be attending conference for the first time in more than a decade, it is understood, with allies saying she wants to rest and recharge and avoid being a distraction after a tumultuous few weeks.
Even if Starmer succeeds in navigating internal party battles, challenging Reform and setting out his prospectus for the country, it is the tough economic backdrop that keeps him up at night. Next month’s budget – with the likelihood of tax rises – will cast a shadow over everything.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, in her speech will issue a veiled warning to business, suggesting it should be careful about what might come under a Reform government – and that the turmoil unleashed by Farage’s policies would be an entirely different prospect to her own difficult choices.
But constantly on Starmer’s mind, allies say, is that last year he promised voters change and he needs to deliver that fast before their impatience turns to despair.
Minutes into his party conference speech two years ago, his last before the election, Starmer was interrupted by a heckler who showered him with glitter. His response could not have been better scripted: the then leader of the opposition removed his jacket and rolled up his sleeves to get on with the job.
He could be forgiven for thinking back on those days – when Labour was soaring in the polls and his leadership elicited hope rather than despair – with nostalgia. But those close to the prime minister, while worried about the impact of all the turmoil, say he is as determined as ever.
“Keir is always underestimated,” one ally said. “Yes it’s bumpy sometimes but he always does rise to the next challenge. He’s fiercely determined to sort this country out and prove his doubters wrong. He’s coming to Liverpool up for the fight.”
