Even though the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) in the second wave of COVID-19 in Karnataka has remained lower than the first, experts are anticipating a rise in absolute numbers in the coming days.
Monthly data suggests that the CFR – proportion of deaths out of the total individuals testing positive – has remained lower in the second wave so far.
While the second wave has seen a sharp rise in positive cases, particularly this April when 5.26 lakh cases were reported, the number of deaths for the month were 2,956. This is lower than the 3,388 reported in August, 2020 and also resulted in a lower CFR for this April [0.56%] compared to August 2020 [1.55%].
Health Minister K. Sudhakar, during his recent visit to Kalaburagi, also said the second wave’s CFR was lower than the first wave.
Experts, however, have warned against complacency. C.N. Manjunath, Director of Jayadeva Institute of Cardiology, Bengaluru, who is also the nodal officer for labs and testing in the State’s COVID-19 task force, said the dynamics can change, when the absolute number of deaths could increase.
“Probably, the best time to assess the CFR is after tw
o more weeks. It is bit too early now,” he said. Anticipating the absolute numbers to rise, Dr. Manjunath said what matters was the number of deaths and not necessarily the proportion.
Lag time
Another member of the State COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee pointed to a lag time of 14 to 17 days between the surge in cases and deaths. “COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU after a surge in cases will die only after 10 to 15 days so the surge in deaths will be reflected on that day,” he said.
Also, many severely sick patients will not get ICU beds when there is a strain on the medical infrastructure.
A patient admitted to an ICU will remain there 14 to 15 days. “As ICUs cannot be created overnight, newer admissions will not be possible. Hence, patients, who have to wait for a longer time, turn critical and die. It is like a cycle,” the expert said.
Besides, the CFR has been calculated on the basis of the reported deaths, leaving out the unaccounted deaths. Referring to the difference between the reported COVID-19 deaths and the deaths reported from crematoriums and burial grounds, the expert said a lot of reconciliation of data will take place later.
In view of the high number of positive cases being reported daily, experts sau that the absolute number of deaths will be more the coming days even if their proportion to the confirmed cases is less.
Dr. Manjunath added that the second wave has begun peaking in the State and expects the surge to begin its decline by the May-end or beginning of June.
