Coming into the college football season, three teams were pegged as being the elites, above all others. Those three, since the year started, were Clemson, Alabama, and Georgia. It very quickly became obvious that Ohio State, Oklahoma, and LSU would join that group. And, for the first six weeks of the season, none of those Top 6 (who were also the Top 6 in both major polls) lost. Aside from Clemson’s sole troublesome game against North Carolina, no one came close to losing. That is, not until this week, when Georgia lost a stunner at home to a barely-mediocre South Carolina team.
Aside from breaking up the total lack of chaos at the top of the sport this year, this week served as an important reminder that we live in a chaotic college football world. Any team can lose to just about any team in any given week. And while we often like to envision scenarios in which chalk rules the day, that just doesn’t happen. Ever. We never see more than a few undefeated power conference teams. We never get nonstop perfection from the top teams.
Even in this four-year era of Alabama and Clemson conquering all, we’ve still only seen two undefeated regular seasons from each of them. Perfection is the goal in college football, and it’s very rarely achieved, even by those closest to it. Don’t be lulled into thinking that the top teams can lose. They can lose; and, more likely than not, they will lose at least once.
13 teams still control their own destiny
That’s right. 13. If that number seems high to you, it’s because it is. But Clemson is a Playoff lock if it wins out. Oklahoma or Baylor is a Playoff lock if it finishes undefeated. Any undefeated or one-loss Big Ten or SEC champion is a virtual lock at this point, so that includes Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, and Auburn. We could also add Missouri to the list, but those Tigers are expecting a bowl ban, currently under appeal.
On top of those 13, we have Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Oregon (and to a lesser extent Utah and Arizona State), all of whom will have very strong resumes if they win out. Our number of serious Playoff contenders is at 19 right now, with a few more waiting in the wings should these teams slip up.
Still, 19 is a strong number. And sure, some of them (like Wake Forest or Minnesota) winning out seems very unlikely, but these teams have all put themselves in this position after seven weeks. That’s noteworthy on its own at this point.
Also, with so many contenders, it will be very hard for the teams behind them to find the chaos they need to move up. Sure, Louisville is still alive. But why would the Cardinals jump Clemson at this point, even if they themselves beat Clemson. That’s the problem for every two-loss team rooting for chaos right now. They’re going to need a ton of chaos to get back in the picture.
Next … The SEC’s two-bid dream takes a big hit
Two-bid SEC in big trouble
All season, fans and pundits have been wondering if the SEC will get two teams in the Playoff. Heck, ESPN even spent some time talking about a potential three-bid SEC, back when Alabama, Georgia, and LSU occupied the No. 2-4 spots in the polls. With Georgia’s loss to South Carolina, though, the conference will have a hard time pulling off even two.
For starters, the easiest path to a two-bid SEC was always having two 12-0 teams meet in the SEC Championship Game. That is officially out of the question, since both Georgia and Florida (the SEC East’s final two undefeated teams) lost this week.
What scenarios are left for the SEC to get two bids? The easiest would be either Florida or Georgia winning out, and beating an undefeated SEC West champion in the SEC Championship Game. Based on how each of those teams played this week, it’s hard to see that happening.
The other scenario would be a one-loss SEC West runner-up getting a second Playoff bid, after the conference champion (likely the SEC West champion). The problem with that, though, is that it requires either both Alabama and LSU to beat Auburn or Auburn winning out. Neither of those seem like great possibilities at this point. Of course, even if both do beat Auburn, they’ll have to avoid slip-ups against other teams. And, looking ahead at their schedules, even though it seems like there’s no one to really challenge Alabama and LSU, we just learned with Georgia this week than any team can have an off game.
Of course, all of this is just focusing on the SEC and not the rest of the country. It’s impossible to talk about only one league at a time, as how every contender finishes impacts what spots are left for others. Resumes will be compared, and we can’t really discuss one conference’s set of resumes in abstract.
With all of that said, there are still baselines we can set. Sure, anything can happen with exactly the right chaos. But there are definite scenarios that would give the SEC its best chance at two bids. And, looking at the results this week, those scenarios took a major hit.
Next … What about a two-bid Big Ten?
Big Ten teams have no quite received the respect that SEC teams have this season, though we of course haven’t seen any rankings from anyone on the selection committee yet. Will the committee respect Wisconsin and Penn State? Will it give Minnesota more credit than the human voters have so far? We won’t find out the answers to any of these questions until November.
Still, if the committee does give the Big Ten some extra benefit of the doubt, it still needs its perfect scenarios to even have a chance.
Unlike the SEC, the Big Ten’s best two teams play each other in the regular season. If the Big Ten really wants two bids, then fans should root for both Wisconsin and Penn State to beat Ohio State. 12-0 Wisconsin meeting 12-0 Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game would be the league’s best chance. Of course, it seems very unlikely at this point that Ohio State will lose two games.
There is the possibility that Ohio State and Minnesota could both go 12-0. But looking at Minnesota’s start to the season and nonconference schedule, it’s hard to think the Gophers get in the Playoff at 12-1, even with potential November wins over Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
Of course, being able to get two bids, as we said with the SEC, always depends on the rest of the country. Who will lose to open up that fourth spot? So maybe, if the Big Ten wants to get in two teams, the best possibility is Ohio State winning out and Penn State going 11-1. Then, if Pitt (who Penn State beat earlier this season) wins the ACC Championship Game over Clemson, it would be hard to keep Penn State out.
It’s also still way too early in the season to talk about precise scenarios like that. Let’s see where things stand when November starts, then we can dive into the nitty-gritty.
