As spring football kicks in, how do the win totals look for all of the Pac-12 teams? Here’s where the bar should be set … for now.
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Just how good are all of the Pac-12 teams? There are still plenty of injuries, suspensions, and depth chart changes to come over the next several months – and spring football still has to kick in – but here’s the first look.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures should be set.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Pac-12 North
California Golden Bears
The offense has plenty of experience, but it has to find more production and more playmakers. It’ll have to find something that works, but the defense that was so good last season should help with eight starters returning.
The schedule is just okay enough to get back to six wins, but there can’t be any mistakes against UC Davis, North Texas and Oregon State, and the Bears have to be on the right side of all of the 50/50 games.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6-5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Oregon Ducks
The Ducks return absolutely loaded, with QB Justin Herbert back along with nine other offensive starters. The attack will be even more deadly, and the defense gets back eight starters and has even more talent coming in.
There isn’t a game on the slate the Ducks can’t win, but they have to go to Arlington to deal with Auburn, and they have to go to Stanford, Washington, USC and Arizona State. They’re not going to be good enough to win all of those, but they have to win at least three.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9.5
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Oregon State Beavers
Who are the Beavers going to beat? They have to get by Cal Poly, and they have to avoid a potential disaster against what will be a jacked up Hawaii team in Honolulu. There isn’t another game on the slate they’ll be favored in. Even so, there should be at least one upset to push for at least four wins.
The O line needs a few new parts, but the skill guys are there. The other side gets eight starters back, but will the D be any better? It has to be right stronger right out of the gate.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 3.5
2018 Record: 2-10
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal might be a lot better, but good luck with the first four games against Northwestern, at USC, at UCF and Oregon. However, the Ducks are coming to Palo Alto, and so is Washington, and so is Notre Dame.
Can the team get close to double-digit wins with such a tough slate? Yeah, if the offensive line rises up and restocks the shelf right away, and if six starters can quickly be replaced on defense.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Washington Huskies
The defending Pac-12 champ isn’t going to be strong enough to get to the College Football Playoff, but it can win the conference title again, with eight starters back and good options to take over in the backfield. The defense loses six starters, but the Huskies reload instead of rebuild.
Getting to double-digit wins isn’t a given, but it’s a very, very light road slate – all things considered – going to BYU, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State and Colorado. The Dawgs are good enough to win at least four of those, and everything else is in Seattle, including showdowns against Oregon, USC, Utah and Washington State.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9
2018 Record: 10-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Washington State Cougars
Underestimate the Cougars at your own peril. They might not be quite as good, but the receivers are all there, four starters are back on the offensive front, and Gage Gubrud is a great transfer quarterback from Eastern Washington. However, six starters are gone on defense.
The schedule isn’t awful, but the Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Utah and Washington games are on the road. They can lose those three or those five, and be favored in every other game except for the date with Stanford.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 11-2
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
NEXT: Pac-12 South
Pac-12 South
Arizona Wildcats
There’s just enough returning for a stronger Year Two under Kevin Sumlin. Khalil Tate and nine starters return on offense, and almost everyone is back on the defensive side.
If all goes well, the Wildcats should have a sure base of three wins over Hawaii, Northern Arizona and Oregon State. There are enough winnable home games to get to six wins, but the road games in the Pac-12 are all nasty.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Arizona State Sun Devils
Herm Edwards might be missing his defensive tackles from last season, and star WR N’Keal Harry is gone, but just about everything else is back and in place … as long as the quarterback situation is settled right away.
Getting to seven wins again is a good goal with sure-thing wins over Kent State and Sacramento State, and with plenty of winnable games like at Oregon State and against Colorado.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Colorado Buffaloes
Melvin Tucker has a nice team to work with. Steven Montez leads what should be a loaded passing game, and he has eight starters back on defense.
The Buffs have to take care of Colorado State and Air Force early, and then win a few of the tough home games against Nebraska, Arizona, USC, Stanford, and/or Washington.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5.5
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins will be better in Chip Kelly’s second season, but how much? The offense is loaded with talent, upside and experience, and the defense gets back ten starters. Will it all kick in right away as the Bruins build on the end of last season?
There aren’t any sure-thing non-conference wins playing at Cincinnati, San Diego State and Oklahoma – and there are a whole bunch of rough road games. UCLA should be good for at least seven wins, but outside of Oregon State at home, there aren’t any layups.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
USC Trojans
After a dud of a losing season, the Trojans still have a whole lot of rebuilding to do. They need to replace just about everyone in the secondary, have to replace three starters on the offensive line, and need the young star prospects of last year to be special.
The road games at Washington and Notre Dame are the big problems, but there are no true layups. Every game will be work for a team with so many concerns and question marks.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Utah Utes
The defending Pac-12 South champs should be every bit as good if the stars in the linebacking corps can be quickly replaced, and if the O line can retool in a hurry with three new starters.
The schedule shouldn’t be too much of an issue with more than enough winnable home games to ensure bowl eligibility. Beat BYU in the opener, and the only tough road games remaining are at USC, Washington and Arizona.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8-5
2018 Record: 9-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
