With spring ball rolling, how do the win totals look for all of the Conference USA teams? Here’s where the bar should be set … for now.
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Just how good are all of the Conference USA teams? There are still plenty of injuries, suspensions, and depth chart changes to come over the next several months, but here’s the first look.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures should be set.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Conference USA EAst
Charlotte 49ers
New head man Will Healy has a nice team coming back, with eight starters returning on an offense that also brings in USF transfer Brett Kean, and the defense has upside with eight starters back.
With road games at Clemson, Appalachian State, and FIU, there are a few tough battles, but it’s not a bad slate overall. The real problem will be the league’s improvement – there’s a problem is Florida Atlantic and Old Dominion improve. Getting to five wins again shouldn’t be a problem. It’s that sixth that’s going to be a fight.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Florida Atlantic Owls
The Owls should bounce back from a mediocre 2018 with a stronger passing game and just enough talent to push for a winning season. There are big holes to fill, but Lane Kiffin has put together a solid team that should be somewhere in between the great 2017 season and last year’s version.
They’ll almost certainly lose at Ohio State and against UCF, but they should be in the mix against everyone else. They can and should win at least eight of their last ten games.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Florida International Golden Panthers
Butch Davis has a great team returning with QB James Morgan leading a veteran offense with almost all of the top receivers returning. The defense gets back eight starts and should be better and more consistent.
The Miami game is the one killer, but that’s late in the season – the Canes might not be ultra-focused – and it’s coming after a week off. There are just enough road dates to and tough conference battles to drop a few games, but the regular season mark of eight wins from last year is about right.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Marshall Thundering Herd
It’s a really, really good team returning with a strong offensive backfield and four starters back on the line. The defensive front, though, has to replace just about everyone in the front six, but all five starters are back in the secondary.
There’s a trip to Boise State, but that’s it for the nasty road games, and there aren’t any dates against Power Five programs. However, playing Cincinnati will be tough, and going to Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic won’t be easy.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8.5
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The Blue Raiders lose longtime quarterback Brent Stockstill and a slew of the key receivers, and three starters are done up front. The defensive side takes an even bigger hit with six starters gone.
This will be a good team in time, but it’ll be a fight. The Duke game is at home, but that along with trips to Michigan and Iowa will likely make for a rough start. In all, six of the first eight games against bowl teams from last year, and one of the others is at Florida Atlantic.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6.5
2018 Record: 8-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Old Dominion Monarchs
The Monarchs have some nice parts, but have some work to do under head man Bobby Wilder. Michigan State transfer Messiah deWeaver will help the quarterback situation, but the receivers have to emerge with most of the pieces gone. The D has to replace all three safeties as well as the defensive ends.
Going to Virginia and Virginia Tech is a problem early on – especially after that win over the Hokies last year – and going on the road to Marshall, UAB, FIU and Middle Tennessee won’t be easy for a defense that has to be a whole lot stronger.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 4.5
2018 Record: 4-8
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
WKU Hilltoppers
New head coach Tyson Helton gets back a ton of experience on offense with everyone returning on the line, all the top receivers, and the backfield that’s good enough for the attack to be aw hole lot stronger. Getting back seven starters on D doesn’t hurt, either.
The Power Five games are against Louisville and at Arkansas, but there are more than enough winnable games to bounce back in a hurry and flirt with six games and a bowl.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
NEXT: Conference USA West
Conference USA West
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have to start out the year at Texas, and they have back-to-back away games at Marshall and UAB in November, but overall it’s not a bad slate. There’s just enough to drop a few games, but the team is good enough to beat the seven regular season wins from last year.
The offense has to replace both tackles, but the skill spots are loaded with a deep group of receivers for J’Mar Smith to throw to. The defensive side loses Jaylon Ferguson and the pass rushers, but the secondary is going to be fantastic.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 8-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
North Texas Mean Green
This should be another strong team for head man Seth Littrell, but the schedule is going to be a problem. The Mean Green have enough winnable games to get bowling without a problem, but going to SMU, Cal, Southern Miss and Louisiana Tech will be tough, and hosting Houston, Middle Tennessee and UAB is hard, too.
The offensive line has to replace both tackles, but the skill spots are loaded, especially with the passing game. The D has to replace both corners and four starters on the front six.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Rice Owls
There’s still a whole bunch of rebuilding to do in the second year under Mike Bloomgren. The receivers are there, and the offensive line gets back most of the top parts, but the defensive front has to all but start over. The linebackers and secondary are veterans.
Where are the wins going to come from? The Owls have to go against ten teams that went bowling, and the dates against the two others – UTSA and UTEP – are on the road.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 2.5
2018 Record: 2-11
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles are loaded offensively with everyone back up front and a great receiving corps returning for QB Jack Abraham to throw to. The defense is full of talent, too, with seven starters back.
Going to Mississippi State, Troy and Alabama in the first month is a big problem, and going to Louisiana Tech and Florida Atlantic won’t help. But the team should be good enough to make a bid to push past six wins.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7
2018 Record: 6-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UAB Blazers
The Blazers benefited from playing an easy schedule, but they managed to get through enough of the 50/50 games on the slate to roll to 11 wins and a conference title. This time around … it’s ridiculously easy, too, at least early on. The first game against a team that went bowling last year doesn’t come until November 9th. But they have to go to Tennessee, Southern Miss, and North Texas.
And now comes the rebuild. Only two starters return on offense, the defense has to start over a bit, too, and this is where the first wave of players who stuck with the program through the lean years have to be replaced. Even so, it should be a good year, but it’ll be rougher.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7
2018 Record: 11-3
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UTEP Miners
There really were some positive moments in a one-win campaign in Dana Dimel’s first year. The O line returns most of the parts, the backfield is okay, and the defensive line has the potential to be better. The corners and linebackers have to be replaced, too.
The Miners should be able to match last year’s win total in the opener against Houston Baptist, and there are just enough winnable games to push for at least three wins. They should be able to hang with UTSA at home and hang with New Mexico State and Rice.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 3.5
2018 Record: 1-11
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UTSA Roadrunners
The Roadrunners should get off to a decent start against Incarnate Word, but that’s hardly a given. Can the defense and the team start to do enough to beat the Rices and UTEPs on the slate? It’s going to be a fight to get close to six wins and bowl eligibility, but the Roadrunners should be a whole lot stronger.
The team is experienced enough to be a whole lot better after a total dud of a season. It returns all four starters on the offensive front, and has the skill guys to do something. The other side is strong up front and in the secondary, but needs work in the linebacking corps.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 4.5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
