Before spring football kicks in, how do the win totals look for all of the Big Ten teams? Here’s where the bar should be set … for now.
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Just how good are all of the Big Ten teams? There are still plenty of injuries, suspensions, and depth chart changes to come over the next several months – and spring football still has to kick in – but here’s the first look.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures should be set.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Big Ten East
Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers have a nice team returning. The offensive skill spots are strong, but the line will need a little while. The defensive front has to do some work, and the linebacking corps is questionable, but the O should keep up in shootouts.
The schedule is set up for six wins – or close. Ball State, Eastern Illinois, UConn and – coming off a week off – Rutgers. Start with those four wins, and can the Hoosiers come up with two more? They’ll be the underdog in almost every other game.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Maryland Terrapins
The Terps will beat Howard, and they’ll struggle against the East big boys – Ohio State and Michigan State are road games – but there are more than enough 50/50 games to push for a bowl season under Mike Locksley.
The Terps have the running backs and receivers – and now they have the quarterback in Virginia Tech’s Josh Jackson – but they don’t have the offensive line early on. The defensive front is gutted, but the secondary should enough of a strength to work the D around.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Michigan Wolverines
Talent isn’t an issue. The Wolverines have the skill players and the main men on the offensive line to come up with an even stronger season on that side of the ball. The defense should be a killer again, even with some key parts missing.
But can it all translate into a special College Football Playoff caliber season? Getting to at least six wins is a given with this schedule, but going to Wisconsin and Penn State and hosting Iowa, Notre Dame, Michigan State and Ohio State is scary.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9.5
2018 Record: 10-3
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans should be a lot better this year – at least offensively. The experience is there with all five starters back up front, and the skill players are too good to not be able to do something more.
Going on the road to deal with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan equals a big, big problem. Throw in home games against Penn State, Arizona State, and even Maryland, and it’ll be tough to get to nine wins.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8.5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Ohio State Buckeyes
Can Ryan Day pull off another Big Ten championship season? He’s got his quarterback in Justin Fields, and the defense is loaded with enough talent to be deep in the hunt for the College Football Playoff. The O has to be more consistent, and Fields has to be the real deal.
The non-conference schedule is a breeze, and Michigan State, Wisconsin and Penn State are all at home. The Michigan showdown is on the road, but it’s Michigan – you know how that’s going to go. But because of the coaching change and the uncertainty on offense, it’s not going to be an interesting projection throughout the offseason.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 10
2018 Record: 13-1
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions have enough stars on defense to be fantastic, but is the quarterback situation going to be okay? Will the offense be more consistent? The O line should be terrific, and the skill guys are there.
There are enough winnable games to provide a nice base – the non-conference schedule is a relative breeze – and the Big Ten slate isn’t awful beyond road games at Ohio State and Michigan State.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
It’s been said before, but Rutgers should be stronger this year. The passing game has upside, the receiving corps is full of veterans, and there’s just enough defense to be okay.
The Scarlet Knights are going to win more than one game – they’re not going to lose to UMass or Liberty. They’re also overdue for a big upset or two, but road games at Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and home dates against Ohio State and Michigan State, will make it almost impossible to come up with a massive season.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 3.5
2018 Record: 1-11
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
NEXT: Big Ten West
Big Ten West
Illinois Fighting Illini
Is this the year when the Lovie Smith thing finally breaks through? The quarterback play has to be better, but just about everyone is back on both sides of the ball. There’s even a whole lot of depth, too.
There can’t and shouldn’t be any whiffs against Akron, UConn, Eastern Michigan and Rutgers – there’s the match for last year’s four-win total. There will be an upset somewhere along the way in Big Ten play, but can there be two? It’ll take a slight shocker against Minnesota on the road or Northwestern at home to get there.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5.5
2018 Record: 4-8
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Iowa Hawkeyes
Assuming the Hawkeyes can get by Iowa State on the road, there’s a great chance of starting 4-0. Throw in the home games against Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois, and getting to and past six wins isn’t asking for the world. At Michigan, at Wisconsin, at Northwestern, at Nebraska, and at home against Penn State – there are the barriers.
The receiving corps and the tight end situation have work to do, the top safeties are gone, and the defensive front needs an overhaul, but there’s more than enough talent in play to have another 7-to-9 win Iowa-like season.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 9-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Can the Gophers beat Fresno State on the road? If so, they’re going to be 3-0, and they should have four early wins if they can get by Illinois this time around. There isn’t a game on the slate they can’t win – there aren’t any nasty road games against the East. It’s all about winning their share of the 50/50 games.
Experience-wise, the team is loaded with all of the receivers back, options in the backfield, and just enough on the line to be fine. Eight starters return on the defensive side.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Just how much magic can Scott Frost create in his second season? He and Nebraska are still about a year away from really rocking and rolling – the defense needs more time to mature – but the offense will be unstoppable at times.
The schedule isn’t awful, with he toughest games against Ohio State, Northwestern and Wisconsin at home. Those are all winnable, and the Huskers might be the favorites in every other game on the slate. Even so, the win total will still be a big call. Is the team ready to push for double-digit victories? The investment public will have its say.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 4-8
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Northwestern Wildcats
The defending Big Ten West champs not have former Clemson star recruit Hunter Johnson at quarterback. The line needs work, but the rest of the O should be strong, and the defense has the experience and upside to be even better.
The road games at Stanford, Nebraska and Wisconsin are going to be rough, but Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa and Minnesota are coming to Evanston. The team came up with eight regular season wins last year, but with a tougher schedule, that will be a push.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 9-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Purdue Boilermakers
Jeff Brohm’s team has to go to Nevada to start the season, and that’s about as easy as the slate gets. There are a whole bunch of winnable games, but dealing with Vanderbilt and TCU aren’t layups, and going to Penn State, Iowa, Northwestern and Wisconsin means there has to be an upset or two along the way.
The offensive backfield gets an overhaul, and the line loses three starters, but the defense should be a bit stronger with a good-looking linebacking corps and eight starters back overall.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6
2018 Record: 6-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Wisconsin Badgers
If the offensive line comes around and is the Badger offensive line, the team should be close to 2017-good again. The skill players are magnificent and experienced, and the defense returns eight starters.
The schedule has a slew of concerns, hosting Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa, and having to go to Nebraska and Ohio State. The Badgers should be more than good enough to get to double-digit wins, but after last year’s clunker, they’re going to have to prove it.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9
2018 Record: 8-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
