Before spring football kicks in, how do the win totals look for all of the Big 12 teams? Here’s where the bar should be set … for now.
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Just how good are all of the Big 12 teams? There are still plenty of injuries, suspensions, and depth chart changes to come over the next several months – and spring football still has to kick in – but here’s the first look.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures should be set.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
Baylor Bears
The Bears are loaded with experience in Year Three under head coach Matt Rhule. The O line might need a little tweaking, but the skill parts are there, and most of the top defensive players – especially at linebacker – are back.
Assume a 3-0 start against Stephen F. Austin, UTSA and Rice, but there isn’t anything easy after that. Baylor should be able to win its share of games, but the Big 12 season is going to be another bear, including – potentially – the trip to Kansas.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Iowa State Cyclones
Matt Campbell has put together a strong program with staying power, but like almost everyone else in the Big 12, there are way too many 50/50 games. Beating Northern Iowa and ULM is a given, and the Kansas game is at home, but going on the road for five Big 12 games – including West Virginia, Oklahoma and Baylor – will make it tough to go on a huge run.
The O line gets everyone back, the defensive front will be a major plus, and outside of cornerback, there aren’t any major holes. Even so, getting to eight wins with this slate – the road games are the issue – will be a fight.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 8-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Kansas Jayhawks
How much can Les Miles do in his first year? There’s experience, but the interior of the lines was gutted, and most of the top linebackers are gone. JUCO transfers and surprisingly okay depth should make up for the issues, but the Jayhawks will stop be expected to bring up the Big 12 rear.
Even so, with Indiana State and Coastal Carolina to start the season, there should be two wins right out of the gate, and then it gets tough. A road game at Boston College is the other non-conference game, and KU should be the underdog in every other game.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 3.5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Kansas State Wildcats
Chris Klieman has enough in place to help K-State make a quick jump up. The receiving corps is terrific, the defense gets nine starters back, and both lines are strong. The chance to make a quick pivot is possible.
Playing Nicholls and Bowling Green right away should mean two wins, but with a road game at Mississippi State to follow, there aren’t any sure-thing wins the rest of the way. The Kansas and Texas Tech games are on the road, are are dates with Oklahoma State and Texas. Getting well past six wins isn’t a given.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6.5
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Oklahoma Sooners
As long as Jalen Hurts is just that good, the Oklahoma offense should keep on rolling. It might not be the high-powered passing machine it’s been over the last few years, but the expectations aren’t going to be lowered. The D is loaded with experience, getting back ten starters.
Going to UCLA won’t be easy, and the Texas game is always tough, but the Sooners should be the favorites in every game. The fear for losses – along with the dates with the Bruins and Longhorns – will be the regular season-ending trip to Oklahoma State, and maybe on the wrong day at Kansas State and Baylor.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 10.5
2018 Record: 12-2
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
NEXT: Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, West Virginia
Oklahoma State Cowboys
If the quarterback situation is settled fast, the Cowboys will be loaded with experience and talent all across the offense. The defensive front was gutted, and new top linebackers have to emerge, but the secondary has the upside to be among the Big 12’s best.
Starting out at Oregon State, McNeese State, and at Tulsa should mean a 3-0 start, and if the team is just that good, beating Kansas and Kansas State in Stillwater should help create a base of five wins. Getting Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor at home helps.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Texas Longhorns
There’s a chance Texas gets way overloved early on by the investment community. Tom Herman has created something special, but the offensive line needs a lot of work, almost everyone has to be replaced on the defensive line, and the secondary has to come up with a few new parts at corner.
So how can a team this strong and with so much momentum potentially lose a few games? The date against LSU is a concern, as is the annual showdown against Oklahoma. Road games at West Virginia, TCU, Iowa State and Baylor are all landmines.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9.5
2018 Record: 10-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
TCU Horned Frogs
After all of the issues and inconsistencies last season, TCU should be back to form. However, the linebackers have to be replaced, more pass rushers have to emerge, and the offense has to find something that works.
Fortunately, with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, SMU and Kansas early on, the Horned Frogs should have a great start. It’ll take TCU being TCU again to come up with enough Big 12 wins to be a player like it was in 2017, but being a few wins better isn’t asking for the world.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Just how quickly can Matt Wells turn Texas Tech into a Big 12 factor again? As long as the quarterbacks are healthy, the offense should explode. The defense, though, needs a while to get things in place with six starters needing to be replaced.
Getting to five wins again shouldn’t be an issue, but with a trip to Arizona and road games at Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas, there are plenty of most likely losses baked into the slate. Expect the win total line to fluctuate as much as any in the Big 12 throughout the offseason.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6.5
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
West Virginia Mountaineers
Neal Brown has a great offensive backfield with Austin Kendall coming in to take over the quarterback situation, but the receiving corps needs some work. The running game should be great behind a veteran O line, and the defensive back seven should be strong.
But can the Mountaineers be better than last year against a harder schedule? Having to go to Missouri and face NC State won’t be easy, and the Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU games are on the road. There aren’t enough sure-thing wins.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 8-4
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
