Before spring football kicks in, how do the win totals look for all of the American Athletic Conference teams? Here’s where the bar should be set … for now.
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Just how good are all of the American Athletic Conference teams? There are still plenty of injuries, suspensions, and depth chart changes to come over the next several months – and spring football still has to kick in – but here’s the first look.
Based off of the schedules, timing of the big games, and the talent coming back, here’s around where the win total futures should be set.
The win total line projections are based on the regular season – bowl games or conference championships don’t count. And remember, this is a cold business. The investment market will set the line as the offseason goes on.
American Athletic East
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats should have a better team under Luke Fickell, but the schedule makes it tough to improve on the amazing ten-win regular season of 2018. The offense is loaded at the skill spots, but the lines are gutted.
Playing UCLA and Ohio State to start the season is tough – and the road games at Houston, USF and Memphis leave little margin for error. Throw in the home games against Temple and UCF – and a nasty date at Marshall – and as good as UC will be, it’ll be a fight to get to eight wins.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 11-2
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
East Carolina Pirates
New head coach Mike Houston has to settle on a quarterback, but the lines are full of veterans and most of the main tacklers are back. But there’s still a whole lot of improving to do.
It’s not a bad slate, though. ECU has to go to NC State and UCF, but the Temple, USF and Cincinnati games are at home. In all, seven games are against teams that didn’t go bowling last season, and two are against FCS teams. Start with matching the three wins of 2018 without a problem, and go from there.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Temple Owls
New head man Rod Carey has a good defense returning, but the secondary needs help. The offensive side is loaded with veterans from a team that exploded throughout 2018.
Can the Owls come up with at least a win against Maryland, Georgia Tech, Memphis and UCF at home? Throw in the road game at Cincinnati, and there are just enough tough games to assume three losses. But there’s a floor of five wins.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 8-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UConn Huskies
There’s still a whole lot of work to do from last season’s disaster. The skill guys need work, and the D – while experienced – is coming off an all-timer of an awful year.
The Huskies will beat Wagner, but it’ll be a shocker to pull off a win over Illinois, at Indiana, at UCF, USF, at Tulane, and against Houston to follow. Throw in the road games at Cincinnati and Temple, and three to four wins is a safe early bar.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 3.5
2018 Record: 1-11
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
UCF Knights
Disrespect UCF at your own risk. The quarterback situation is great, the O should be fantastic, and the defense is loaded with veteran playmakers. So why is the total set so low?
The Knights have to go to Florida Atlantic. No problem, but they host Stanford, go to Pitt, go to Cincinnati, go to Temple, and face Houston and USF at home. Be careful of just assuming this will be another 12-win team.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 10
2018 Record: 12-1
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
USF Bulls
There’s a whole lot to like. The passing game should be great, the O line gets just about everyone back, and the defensive front should be far, far better.
However, USF has to start out the season against Wisconsin and at Georgia Tech. Throw in a home date against BYU, road game at UCF, and battles against Temple, Cincinnati and Memphis, and there are enough landmines to assume four losses as a base to work from. This is the toughest slate yet under Charlie Strong.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 7.5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
NEXT: American Athletic Conference West
American Athletic West
Houston Cougars
Good luck trying to figure out exactly where Houston stands under new head man Dana Holgorsen. QB D’Eriq King is coming off an injury, but the O is loaded, and the Ed Oliver-less defense should be just fine after a few corners rise up.
The schedule is an issue – sort of. Going to Oklahoma and hosting Washington State is a problem. Going to UCF and hosting Memphis and Cincinnati won’t be easy. The Cougars will likely lose at least two of those five games, and they won’t be strong enough to avoid at least one other stumble.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 8
2018 Record: 8-5
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Memphis Tigers
Assume this is the best team in the AAC West starting the season. The offense loses a bit in the backfield, but it’s still terrific and the defense is full of veterans.
The first five games – including the opener against Ole Miss – are against teams that didn’t go bowling. There isn’t an absolute sure-thing loss on the slate, but the Tigers do have to go to Houston and USF.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 9
2018 Record: 8-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Navy Midshipmen
There’s no way a Ken Niumatalolo team can be that bad again, can it? There are a whole lot of losses on the lines, and the running game needs new options to play around with.
Four of the first five games are against teams that didn’t go bowling, but games away from Annapolis against Notre Dame, Houston and Army will make it scary to get to a winning season if there are early stumbles on the road at Memphis or against USF.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 5.5
2018 Record: 3-10
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
SMU Mustangs
Is Texas grad transfer QB Shane Buechele enough to push SMU to something big? The rest of the offense is loaded, and just about everyone is back on D.
However, road games at TCU, USF, Houston, Memphis and Navy aren’t going to be easy, and there are just enough over dangerous battles at home – North Texas, Tulane, Temple – to keep this from being a sure-thing winning season.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6
2018 Record: 5-7
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Tulane Green Wave
The offense should explode with the addition of Oklahoma State transfer Jalen McCleskey to an already good receiving corps. The defense is experienced, but the O line needs some work.
Going to Auburn, Army, Memphis, Navy and SMU will be a grind, and the Green Wave get UCF, Houston and FIU at home. They’ll go bowling. The question is how much they’ll have to sweat to get there.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 6.5
2018 Record: 7-6
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Where are the sure-thing wins? Going to San Jose State right after playing Michigan State isn’t a rock-solid lock, and hosting Wyoming is a problem. It’s going to take a few upsets to get close to a winning record.
The Golden Hurricane have the experience, especially on the defensive side. The passing game should be sharper, and the backs are there to balance things out. However, they might not be favored in more than three games.
CFN Early Spring Win Total Line Projection: 4.5
2018 Record: 3-9
– Schedule Breakdown & Analysis
