Valued at a market cap of $19.1 billion, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is a global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products used primarily for energy, industrial applications, and agricultural fertilizers. The Northbrook, Illinois-based company operates a massive network of manufacturing complexes and distribution terminals, positioning itself as one of the world's largest producers of ammonia.
This agricultural fertilizers manufacturer has considerably outpaced the broader market over the past 52 weeks. Shares of CF have soared 54.5% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has gained 26.6%. Moreover, on a YTD basis, the stock is up 68.6%, compared to SPX’s 8.1% rise.
Zooming in further, CF has also notably outperformed the State Street Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund's (XLB) 20.5% return over the past 52 weeks and 15% uptick on a YTD basis.
On May 6, shares of CF plunged 6.5% despite posting better-than-expected Q1 results. The company’s net sales increased 19.4% year-over-year to $2 billion, topping analyst expectations by 12.4%. Moreover, its adjusted EBITDA of $983 million improved 52.6% from the year-ago quarter, while its EPS of $3.98 grew 115.1% compared to the same period last year. First quarter 2026 financial results reflect a gain of approximately $170 million from a litigation settlement.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect CF’s EPS to grow 48.4% year over year to $13.90. The company’s earnings surprise history is promising. It topped the consensus estimates in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 19 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a "Hold,” which is based on four “Strong Buy,” 12 "Hold,” one "Moderate Sell,” and two “Strong Sell” ratings.
The configuration is slightly less bearish than a month ago, with three analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating.
On May 11, Scotiabank reiterated a “Sector Perform” rating on CF and raised its price target to $120.
While the company is trading above its mean price target of $117.28, its Street-high price target of $150 suggests a 15% premium to its current price levels.
