What story has the census told of modern Australia?
We’re wrapping up our live coverage of the census data. Here’s a summary of what it has told us about ourselves:
- The role of religion in our lives is dwindling. For the first time, the proportion of those with no religious affiliation (29.6%) overtook the next most common response (affiliation with the Catholic church at 22.6%)
- Australia is becoming more culturally and linguistically diverse. The number of people speaking English at home dropped to 72.7% in 2016, compared to 76.8% five years ago
- There’s been a slight shift away from home ownership towards renting. Rents have gone up ($335 per week in 2016, compared to $285 in 2011), while mortgage repayments have gone down ($1,800 a month in 2011 to $1,755 a month in 2016)
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Australia’s population is ageing. Those aged 65 and over now account for 16% of the total population, compared to 14% in 2011. The median age has increased to 38, after remaining at 37 for the past decade
- The movement of Australians to capital cities continues. Two-thirds of Australians now live in capital cities. The ACT experienced the fastest population growth, while Melbourne was quickly catching up to Sydney as Australia’s most populous city
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Same-sex couples counted in the census increased by 39% since 2011
- The median weekly income is now $662, up from $577 in 2011, and wage growth appears to be outstripping inflation
- The population of Indigenous Australians has increased by 18% since 2011, but there remains a significant gap in median age and the proportion of the population aged over 65
- The number of overseas-born Australians coming from England has steadily declined over the years, while we’ve seen increasing arrivals from China and India, particularly since 2006
- The ABS, government ministers and the independent assurance panel have all been at pains to emphasise that the data is reliable, despite the blow in public confidence caused by #censusfail.
Thanks for staying with us. We’re continuing to look at the census data in detail, and will have more coverage throughout the afternoon.
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This graph from the independent assurance panel’s report clearly shows the impact of privacy concerns on the 2016 census. Those handing their date of birth over to the ABS dropped considerably across all states and territories, compared to the 2011 and 2006 censuses.
And it’s a similar story for the number of people allowing their census forms to be retained by the national archives for 99 years.
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In case you missed it, the report of the independent assurance panel was released this morning, at the same time as the census data. That panel was set up to ensure the data was credible, given the concerns raised after the website outages on census night.
As we mentioned, the panel found the data could be used with confidence.
You can read the full report of the panel here, but I’ve been through the conclusions to save you some time. The panel found:
- The 2016 data is comparable with the censuses conducted in 2011 and 2006, is fit-for-purpose and can be used with confidence
- The overall response rate to the census (95%) was lower than previous years, but only marginally. The lower response rate is partly due to the ABS over-estimating private dwellings on census night
- Counts of the population compare well to Australia’s official measure of population – the estimated resident population
- The digital approach to census was well received by the public and attracted more accurate responses, notwithstanding the debacle that saw the online form down for almost 43 hours
- A growing number of people gave their age, rather than date of birth, in the 2016 census. The panel found this was likely due to privacy fears
- The number of people choosing to have their census form retained for 99 years by the National Archives dropped dramatically
- People were also giving false names. The panel estimated 1.2% of people failed to give either a first or last name in the 2016 census, compared to 0.6% in 2011
- A significant undercount of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population should be a matter of concern for the ABS, the panel said. The Indigenous population was undercounted by about 17%.
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There have been instances of census respondents using fake names and withholding their date of birth, AAP reports.
You’ll no doubt remember the privacy concerns raised after the ABS announced its intention to retain names and address information. The ABS said information would help to create a “richer and dynamic statistical picture” of Australia, and played down fears over information security.
The independent assurance panel chair, Sandra Harding, told AAP 1% of census respondents gave no name or a fake name, while 3% chose to provide their age instead of date of birth.
“It doesn’t really impact on data quality so much as it does potentially impact data integration or matching activities,” she said.
The proportion of respondents allowing the ABS to archive their data for 99 years fell from 63% in 2011 to 50% in 2016, despite having previously been on an upward trend.
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The census is fairly bleak on home ownership in Australia, as you’d expect, showing a continuing decline in ownership rates. Just 31% of Australians have paid off their mortgage and own their home outright, down from 32.1%.
The last five years have continued a trend towards renting. About 31% now rent property, up about 2% from 2011.
Our interactive census map can help you understand the proportion of home ownership in your own backyard.
Victoria provides an interesting case study.
Areas in the state’s west, towards the South Australian border, have extremely high rates of home ownership. You can see the concentration of deep red, signalling home ownership rates of about 62%.
Move towards Melbourne CBD, however, and the numbers fall dramatically. Footscray had a rate of 13% home ownership, North Melbourne 11% and Carlton 9%.
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It’s worth looking in more detail at religious affiliation across Australia. There are some significant differences across the states and territories.
Queensland and NSW recorded significantly higher levels of Christian affiliation than elsewhere, at 56% and 55.1% respectively. Victoria, meanwhile, had the highest non-Christian religious affiliation in the country at 10.6%.
Tasmania had the highest proportion of people with no religious affiliation, followed by the ACT and South Australia.
Tasmania has the highest proportion of non-believers in Australia (38.2%), followed by the ACT (36.8%) & the City of Churches (36%) #Census pic.twitter.com/mztojs3nSL
— Gareth Hutchens (@grhutchens) June 27, 2017
Islam was the most common non-Christian religion in Australia, accounting for 2.6% of the population.
My colleague, Nick Evershed, has created this rather astounding interactive map, which allows you to burrow down into the census data by location.
Follow the link above to experience it in all its interactive glory.
By way of example, you can use it to measure median rent across the country. Sydney is an angry blob of red, as you’d expect.
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A bit more on the reliability of the results. One of the members of the independent assurance panel, Professor Lisa Jackson-Pulver, has said the 2016 data is of comparable quality to the 2011 and 2006 versions. But she expressed concern at the undercount of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders.
The ABS concedes it probably undercounted the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population by about 17.5%. That’s a slightly worse result than the 2011 census.
Jackson-Pulver said it was something the ABS “will need to address”.
“One way to do this is to work more closely with communities and understand better what communities and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people want from the Census,” she said.
“These are hard conversations to have, but ones that are needed so that the statistical agency and its many partners can serve better the needs of vulnerable Australians.”
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In many ways, the 2016 census paints a picture of Australian diversity. It gives us a clear insight into the composition of our multiculturalism.
This chart shows the dramatic shifts in the country of birth of overseas-born Australians since 1966.
The number of those coming from England has steadily declined over the years, while we’ve seen increasing arrivals from China and India, particularly since 2006.
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Indigenous population grows, but gap in median age remains
The census reflects a strong growth in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population in Australia. The population grew by 18% since 2011, jumping to 649,171.
That means Indigenous Australians now make up 2.8% of the population. More than 60% of Indigenous Australians live in New South Wales and Queensland, while 25.5% of those living in the Northern Territory identified as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander.
The median age of Indigenous Australians, despite increasing to 23, is still well below the non-Indigenous median age of 38.
A similar gap is seen in the proportion of Indigenous Australians aged 65 and over.
About 4.8% of Indigenous Australians were aged 65 or over, compared to 16% for the general population.
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The census data tells us a lot about wage growth in Australia. The median weekly income is now $662, up from $577 in 2011.
But has wage growth outstripped inflation? It appears so.
Wage growth was up 15% in the five years since 2011, and the consumer price index, a measure of inflation, rose by about 10% over the same period.
The ACT - which you’ll remember had the highest population growth of any state or territory - had the highest median income at $998 per week. Tasmania was the lowest at $573 per week.
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Disability advocate and campaigner, Craig Wallace, has tweeted about the lack of questions on disability in the census. However, the Australian Bureau of Statistics does collect such data elsewhere.
Sadly the #census still doesn't ask how many Australians identify with disability - bizarre given our investment in #NDIS @abccanberra
— Craig Wallace (@CraigWtweets) June 27, 2017
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I mentioned earlier that the rate of non-response could affect the reliability of some aspects of the census data. For some questions, the rate of non-response has been significant. The Australian National University’s Nicholas Biddle has written on this issue for The Conversation.
He said there were 1.6 million people who recorded “not stated” when asked for their country-of-birth. That’s 35.7% more than 2011. There was a similar result for those asked about their Indigenous status. Biddle explains:
“That doesn’t mean that all or even most of these records are people refusing to answer the question. Rather, most are records that have been imputed due to missed households or individuals,” he said.
“However, we do need to make sure we carefully exclude these records from our calculations. And more research is needed to uncover whether and why there are a number of people not answering individual items.”
But Biddle says the independent assurance panel, used for the first time, meant that “for the most part, we should believe the results from the 2016 Census”.
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The number of same-sex couples in Australia recorded in the census has increased significantly since 2011. The census counted about 46,800 same-sex couples in 2016, an increase of 39% since 2011. Same-sex couples were typically younger. The median age of same-sex couples was 40, compared to 48 for opposite-sex couples.
One-quarter of female same-sex couples had children, compared to 4.5% for male couples.
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Melbourne set to overtake Sydney's population
The great movement to our major cities continues. The census shows that two-thirds of the population lived in a capital city on census night. The population of capital cities grew by 10.5%, almost double the population growth in other areas.
Sydney maintains its position as the most populous city in Australia. There were 4,823,991 residents in greater Sydney on census night, and it grew by about 1,656 every week since 2011.
Melbourne is growing at a higher rate. Greater Melbourne had a population of 4,485,211 on census night, and was increasing by about 1,859 people each week in the past five years.
Should those trends remain stable, Melbourne will eventually become Australia’s most populous city.
The ACT is the fastest growing state or territory. It added 40,000 new residents since 2011, an increase of 11%.
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The Australian family unit has undergone no significant change since 2011, with the shares of couples with children, couples without children, one-parent families and “other family types” almost identical to five years ago.
The same is true of marital status.
Of people in Australia aged 15 years and over, 48.1% were married (down from 48.7% in 2011) and 11.7% were either divorced or separated (8.5% and 3.2% respectively), down slightly on five years ago (11.4%).
There has been a slight increase in the number of people who had never been married from 34.3% in 2011 to 35% in 2016.
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The ageing of Australia's population
The census has again reflected the ageing of Australia’s population, a consequence of falling birth rates and rising life expectancy.
It’s a trend that’s not unique to Australia. But it will have widespread implications for the nation and our economy. There’ll be a smaller pool available for the labour market, fewer people paying taxes, and higher health and aged care costs.
So what does the census tell us about Australia’s ageing population?
In 2016, there were 664,473 more people aged 65 and over compared to five years ago.
That means those aged 65 and over now account for 16% of the total population, compared to 14% in 2011.
The median age has increased to 38, after remaining at 37 for the past decade.
Tasmania had the highest median age at 42 years and almost one in five people there were aged 65 and over.
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We spoke a little earlier about the changing nature of religion in Australia, and its trend of decline. This chart plots the major religious affiliations of Australians over the course of the census, from 1966 to 2016. It shows the declines in Catholicism, Anglicanism and other Christian religions are part of a longer trend.
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The census gives us a clearer picture of the costs of housing in Australia. In a change likely to surprise no one, median household rent has increased significantly.
In 2016, the median household weekly rent was $335, compared to $285 in 2011.
But the median household mortgage repayment has actually decreased over the past five years, from $1,800 a month in 2011 to $1,755 a month in 2016.
Our homes are not getting any more crowded, either. The average number of people per household remained steady at 2.6, and the median number of bedrooms per household also remained at 3.1.
This chart gives a clear picture of the emerging major religions in the past decade. We can see Islam, Hinduism and Sikhism have all significantly increased, while Buddhism has declined.
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What do Australian families look like in 2016? The census tells us that 44.7% of families were couples with children, while 37.8% were couples without children. Another 15.8% were one parent families, and 1.7% were listed as “other family types”.
What’s striking about this data is that it’s barely changed since 2011. The composition of our families are almost identical to five years ago.
The changes are so minuscule – a 0.1% increase for couples with children, for example – that it’s barely worth remarking.
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A bit more on religion. Catholicism remains by far the most dominant church in Australia. But the church has declined since 2011. In 2016, 22.6% of Australians listed Catholicism under religious affiliation, compared to 25.3%.
Keep in mind that the number of people who listed “no religion” was 29.6%. That means this year is the first in which the proportion of Australians without a religion is higher than those affiliated with the Catholic church.
The Anglican church has experienced a similar fate. About 13% of Australians listed “Anglican” as their religious affiliation, compared to 17.1% in 2011.
"No religion" has overtaken "Catholic" as most common response in #census (2016 on left, 2011 on right) pic.twitter.com/w0iqFX2UJE
— David Lipson (@davidlipson) June 26, 2017
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English speaking at home declines
What does the census tell us about the languages Australians are speaking at home?
It appears to show a slight decline in the proportion of the Australian population speaking English.
In 2016, 72.7% of Australians spoke English at home, compared to 76.8% five years ago.
Mandarin, the second most spoken language, has jumped from 1.6% in 2011 to 2.5%. Arabic has increased slightly (by 0.1%) to become the third most common language in Australia, while Cantonese is fourth.
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The ABS was at pains to emphasise the 2016 census could be trusted in a statement accompanying the release of the data.
Australian statistician, David Kalisch, said the final response rate was 95.1%, which is largely in line with previous years.
The ABS said an independent assurance panel, established by Kalisch, had concluded that the 2016 census “can be used with confidence”.
“The 2016 Census had a response rate of 95.1% and a net undercount of 1%, meaning the quality is comparable to both previous Australian censuses and censuses in other countries, such as New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom,” Kalisch said.
“Sixty-three per cent of people completed the Census online, embracing the digital-first approach and contributing to faster data processing and data quality improvements,” he said.
The ABS also undertook quality checks through a post enumeration survey, which was considered and verified by the independent panel, Kalisch said.
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The census has some quite incredible statistics showing the decline of religion in Australia.
In 1966, those who said they had “no religion” was just 0.8%.
The 2016 census has that number at 29.6%. That number has almost doubled since 2001 and increased by about seven percentage points since 2006.
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Census 2016 is live
The ABS has hit publish on census 2016. My colleague Gareth Hutchens has an early take on what the data shows about Australia. He writes:
Australia’s rapidly changing population is more godless, more Asian and far less likely to own a home outright, the results of the 2016 census show.
The first full results from the census, released on Tuesday, revealed an ageing Australian population with huge shifts in the things its citizens have in common. The proportion of those who own their home outright has fallen dramatically and, for the first time, the majority of residents who were born overseas now hail from Asia, not Europe.
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The census is often described as “Australia’s largest peacetime logistical operation”. So, as we await the release of the data, let’s take a moment to remember the mind-boggling amount of work that goes into this huge survey.
The ABS uses 40,000 employees to collect data from 24 million people in 10 million dwellings. That includes 100 remote area mobile teams visiting remote communities, 1,000 staff interviewing those sleeping rough, and 1,000 staff scanning and processing data.
It takes about six months to print the census paper forms, using 3,500 litres of ink and 13,500 litres of glue. The ABS mails out 20 million items, makes two million phone calls, and communicates in more than 300 languages with people from 200 different countries of origin.
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Government insists on reliability of data
Small business minister, Michael McCormack, is insisting this morning that the census data can be trusted. He’s citing the high response rate as evidence the data can be treated with a high degree of confidence.
“Thanks to the very high participation rate of Australians in last year’s census, and the [bureau’s] efforts to assure the data through its rigorous quality checks, the census will provide a comprehensive and accurate account of modern Australia,” he said in a statement.
The high response rate is one thing. But it’s also crucial to look at either “not stated” or nonsensical response to questions, which could suggest the quality of data has been compromised if the figures are high.
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Good morning Australia, and welcome to census day! We’ll be providing live coverage of the census data as it’s released this morning, hopefully in a somewhat smoother fashion than the now infamous #censusfail of last year.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on how last year’s website outages affect the quality of data released today. Those outages, you’ll no doubt remember, lasted almost two days and stymied the attempts of many Australians attempting to complete the census online. It was the first time the Australian Bureau of Statistics had attempted to shift most people doing the survey online. Despite the debacle, the response rates remained relatively high. An estimated 96% of occupied households completed census 2016, only slightly below the 96.5% response rate of the 2011 survey. Federal ministers and the ABS have insisted the data can be trusted.
So now we await the full release of the data, expected to occur just after 9am, to see what it will tell us about the nation, its people, and how we’ve changed in the past five years.
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