A set of figures have revealed the probability of Celtic and Rangers qualifying for the Europa League knockout stage and beyond.
The findings, published by FiveThirtyEight , have predicted the likelihood of every team reaching each stage of the competition through a specific formula.
The odds are stacked against either team to go all the way, but both Glasgow giants are no stranger to a famous European run. Perhaps this year, it could happen again.
Celtic, who have been drawn in a group against Lazio, Rennes and Cluj, have a 67% chance of reaching the knockout phase. (35% to finish top, 32% to finish as runner-up.)
The Hoops then have a 33% chance of reaching the last 16, 15% to make the quarter-finals and 6% to reach the semi-finals.
According to these numbers, Neil Lennon's men have it all to do to make the final. The balance of probabilities of going to Gdansk are rated at 3% and a slim 1% of picking up the silverware at the end of May.
Rangers, on the other hand, are less likely than their rivals to make it as far in the competition. The Ibrox side's tough group consisting of Porto, Feyenoord and Young Boys will have an influence on their findings.
The Light Blues have a 32% chance of coming out of their group (11% to top it, and 21% to come second). Steven Gerrard's men have a 13% probability of reaching the last 16, 5% for the quarter-finals and 2% to be in the last four.
Rangers have under a 1% chance of both reaching the Final and winning the tournament.
How it works
Before the numbers for the entire competition have been decided, a team's SPI (Soccer Power Index) needs to be calculated. This is basically the overall strength of a team.
The SPI is decided through a range of data analysed from statistics including expected goals for and against (offensive and defensive rating), competition and strength of league and how a club performs in the transfer market.
Once a club's SPI has been worked out, each individual match in a competition (e.g. Europa League) is predicted. These findings allow the index to run a simulation to work out the probability of the overall tournament.
