CBI downplays chances of second pre-Brexit deadline boost

At least 38% of UK factory firms surveyed by the CBI are reported they were predicting declines in the coming quarter. Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

The chances of a repeat of the pre-Brexit deadline boost to manufacturing have diminished following a downbeat survey from the CBI showing the bleakest outlook for industry in more than a decade.

The employers’ organisation said order books were shrinking and output was set to fall in the coming months amid Brexit uncertainty and global trade tensions.

Growth in the first three months of 2019 was boosted by industry building up stocks of goods ahead of the original 29 March date set for the UK’s departure from the European Union.

But the latest snapshot of manufacturing from the CBI found no signs of a repeat in the run-up to the new deadline of 31 October.

The survey of 269 firms conducted in late August and earlySeptember found that 13% of manufacturers said total order books were above normal, and 41% said they were below normal. The balance of -28 points compared with -13% the previous month.

Only 6% of firms said their export order books were above normal, while 37% said they were below normal. After rounding, the CBI said the balance of -32% was almost double the -15% in August.

Factory output picked up slightly, with 25% of businesses reporting that production was up and 24% reporting a fall. The balance of +1 point compared with -3 in August.

Related: UK factories facing biggest slowdown since financial crisis, says CBI

But firms do not expect the improvement to last. While 19% are predicting growth in the coming quarter, 38% are expecting a decline. The balance of -19 points was the weakest since April 2009, when the economy was in recession following the near collapse of the global financial system the previous autumn.

Anna Leach, the CBI’s deputy chief economist, said: “Following a stabilisation in last month’s data, UK manufacturers have become noticeably gloomier in September. This likely reflects a combination of heightened Brexit uncertainty and the ongoing global slowdown in manufacturing.

“With little more than a month to go until 31 October, the message from business is clear. Both sides need to get a deal by compromising to protect jobs and livelihoods on both sides of the Channel.”