Which down teams will bounce back? FSU’s bright side, and the Jalen Hurts Process, in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy.
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Week 1 Roundup: 5 Things That Matter
CFN 1-130 Rankings | Bowl Projections
Coach Hot Seat Rankings | Heisman Trophy Race
– Early Week 2 Line Lookahead & Projection
– 10 Quick Thoughts On Oklahoma 49, Houston 31
– Projecting The Polls: AP | USA Today Coaches
3 Quick Thoughts On Every Game
ACC | Big Ten | Big 12 | SEC
Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
I tried to write it while in bed and looking out the window. However, unlike the Liberty football team that lost to Syracuse 24-0, I’ll at least make a point.
Because putting on a shoe is a terrific way to make sure she’s your soulmate, and no, I didn’t go with solemate, because there’s a special place in hell for punny people …
There’s no such thing as a Cinderella story when it comes to the College Football Playoff.
This isn’t college basketball. You can’t win your mid-major conference or finish ninth in your power league, get hot for three weeks, and then go all 1985 Villanova and win the national title. In this, either you’ve got the guys, or you don’t.
There’s a difference between being a national championship contender and a College Football Playoff contender.
Of course it’s possible for great teams to get to the College Football Playoff – like Notre Dame last year, or 2016 Washington, or 2015 Michigan State – and that’s a whole lot of fun, and then they have to play Alabama or Clemson. If they somehow win that first game, the reward is … Alabama or Clemson.
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Oklahoma. Those are your national championship contenders, with Texas A&M and Texas submitting their application to be reviewed on Saturday. Those are the teams that have the NFL talent across the board, the depth, the elite recruits, the skill, the coaching, and everything in place to win it all.
Everyone else? They’re all just College Football Playoff contenders.
Michigan can get to the CFP. Washington, Oregon or Utah could take the Pac-12 at 12-1 and get in, and it wouldn’t be totally stunning if Michigan State or Wisconsin put something impressive together to get the No. 3 seed.
But can any of them actually win it all?
Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU and Oklahoma. Your national champion is coming from this group, and if it’s another team that gets it done, fantastic. It would be wonderful to add a touch of magic to the CFP chase.
At least he didn’t say the word process …
You want to know why I’m picking Oklahoma to take that one extra step and finally get to the College Football Playoff National Championship? It’s because its quarterback is bringing this …
Yeah, Jalen Hurts’ postgame interview with Holly Rowe seemed overdramatic and a tad staged, as he refused to acknowledge his amazing performance – one that ranks among the greatest in the history of Oklahoma football – in the terrific blowout win over Houston. But for this guy, on this team, in this case, it all worked.
If this was ANYONE else – like, if Georgia State QB Dan Ellington tried to downplay the performance as “sloppy” after beating Tennessee – it would be totally silly. From Hurts, this might just be exactly what Oklahoma needs.
All offseason I was trying to explain why Hurts could be the difference for an OU program that hasn’t been able to get over the hump, and I couldn’t quite articulate it. No, he’s not Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray as a passer, but he’s a different kind of leader with a different set of skills.
So if the dude who was the starting quarterback for one national championship Alabama team, and a pick play away from possibly being on another, thinks his new team was “sloppy,” he’s correct.
Dog him all you want for sounding like Nick Saban and maybe having his former coach in his head, but that’s not a negative.
Why wouldn’t you want to bring some of the attitude and, yes, process, from the greatest college football head coach ever to a program that could be one tweak away from winning a national title?
This week’s sign that football is finally back, and not that there’s anything wrong with that …
We once again get to enjoy – as FOX/FS1 color analyst Brock Huard described – the “girth” of “large men” while “loving to see men on the ground” as the Minnesota offensive line was taking over in the win over South Dakota State.
“The problem, Willie, is that Charles and yourself are not the quickest of cats at the best of times.”
And you think you had a bad weekend. Try being a football program that Florida State head coach Willie Taggart cares about.
Taggart turned Western Kentucky from nothing into a winner before taking off for the USF gig in 2012.
Your 2019 Hilltoppers suffered the indignity of being the only FBS team to lose to an FCS team this weekend, dropping its date to Central Arkansas.
It took a few years, but Taggart built up USF into an 11-2 team in 2016 before leaving for Oregon.
Your 2019 Bulls got obliterated by Wisconsin 49-0 at home.
It was up to Taggart to restore the glory at Oregon, and he set the foundation for the turnaround with a seven-win season in 2017 before leaving for Florida State.
Your 2019 Ducks outplayed Auburn for just over 58 minutes before seeing it all go away with one Bo Nix touchdown pass.
And, of course, there were your 2019 Florida State Seminoles failing to properly hydrate in a collapse to freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier and Boise State.
To add another twist of the knife, that was true freshman QB Sam Howell – who was all but in at FSU this year before being stolen away in the recruiting process – leading North Carolina to the win over South Carolina.
With all of that said …
NEXT: To continue with the theme …
“Chillllllll, Winston, it’s me. Charlie knows it’s me. What’s the problem?”
Is Florida State going to win the national championship this year? No.
Was Florida State going to win the national championship if it had beaten Boise State? No.
Does Florida State still have a whole slew of problems to deal with and fix? Obviously.
Is Florida State going to be a dangerous player in the ACC race? There’s no chan … ehhhhhhhh, be careful with this.
No one will or should pick the Noles to catch fire and win the Atlantic, but if the team that ripped it up in the first half against Boise State shows up in Charlottesville against Virginia in a few weeks, or if it finds its consistency by midseason before it goes to Clemson, don’t be shocked if Willie Taggart really is right and it’s just about showing a little patience.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the defense was a disaster late against the Broncos, and the O went into a coma in the second half, but go back and watch that first half and see if you catch something different about this team.
Those guys were FLYING around, looking and playing like a team that was nowhere to be found all throughout last season.
It looked like Florida State again.
Before it all went so terribly wrong, RB Cam Akers was tearing off long runs, QB James Blackman was solid – finishing with 327 yards and three scores – and the defense was living in the backfield and beating up Bronco QB Hank Bachmeier to a pulp.
That was how Florida State should look and play.
It’s Week 1, which means it’s overreaction time. Everyone is going to keep ripping apart Taggart and FSU until they do something great, but again, if that first half version is the real 2019 Florida State, and the team really did bonk in a way-long game – more on that in a moment – look out.
This week’s second sign that football is finally back, and/or there’s WAY too much commentary at a furry party, not that there’s anything wrong with either of those things …
“He just got blown by a couple of Wildcats who love to come downhill.” – Brock Huard after a particularly physical tackle by Northwestern in its loss to Stanford
NEXT: Dead, resting, or pining for the fjords?
“Mate, this bird wouldn’t voom if you put four million volts through it.”
Here’s the drill. Out of all the teams that had disastrous Week Ones – or is it Weeks One, like Attorneys General? – who had a false start, and who’s already dead?
False Start: Florida State – Again, if you need to, go back and watch that first half. The Noles got sleepy after that, but they unleashed the fury early on. They’ll at least go bowling, and they’re going to screw up someone’s season along the way.
Dead: UCLA – There’s ugly, there’s not tuned-up, and there’s whatever that was in the loss to Cincinnati. The Bearcats are good, but they’re not Clemson – the Bruins couldn’t do anything right against a Group of Five program. Outside of Oregon State, there’s a solid chance that everyone left on the schedule will end up going bowling.
False Start: Tennessee – Whatever … it was embarrassing, but this was about as Week One a loss as it gets. The lines were lousy and there wasn’t a running game, but QB Jarrett Guarantano had enough good moments to be hopeful. Lose to BYU, though, and throw the Vols into the Dead pile.
Dead: South Carolina – Alabama, at Missouri, Kentucky, at Georgia, Florida, at Tennessee, at Texas A&M, Clemson. Good luck. Beating North Carolina was an absolute must to get to six wins, and now the season has the potential to spiral into the abyss. QB Jake Bentley is hurt, Will Muschamp has an $18 million buyout, and … ugh.
False Start: USF – It’s attitude time for the Bulls. They got stomped on and shut out by Wisconsin, but there’s a chance the Big Ten bully found its 2017 mojo and is just that good. USF could absolutely beat Georgia Tech next, and even if it doesn’t, it’s still going to be a factor in the American Athletic race as long as it doesn’t get down.
Dead: Purdue – Jeff Brohm suffered some disastrous losses in his first few years and still got to a bowl game each time, but this season looks different. The Boilermakers can’t lose more than five games the rest of the way, and they get Vanderbilt, TCU, Minnesota, at Penn State, Maryland and at Iowa up next – that’s tougher than it looks. They have to go to Northwestern and Wisconsin, too, to go along with a date with Nebraska.
False Start: Oregon – The CFP can still happen, but there can’t be any brain-cramps like there were last year. The Ducks still have to go to Stanford and Washington, but everything else on the slate – there’s no Utah to deal with – is more than winnable, and that includes going to USC. Running the table isn’t out of the question.
Dead: Northwestern – Okay, fine, this is silly considering the team lost to Akron last year and ended up playing in the Big Ten championship, but it got beaten up by Stanford in the 17-7 loss. The defense was terrific, but the run of Michigan State, at Wisconsin, at Nebraska, Ohio State and Iowa to start the Big Ten season looks even more brutal now.
False Start: Missouri – Go ahead and switch around Mizzou and Northwestern if you want, considering the Tigers are already bowl-dead thanks to their NCAA sanctions. The Wyoming loss was just … strange. There were too many Week 1 mistakes, but the schedule is still light enough to go on a massive run before going to Georgia.
Dead: Ole Miss – YEEEEEEESH. The offense did absolutely nothing in the 15-10 loss to Memphis. There are enough winnable games to get to six and bowl eligibility, but forget it if the attack can’t do anything right. Figure at Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn and LSU are all losses unless something crazy happens – there can’t be any other misfires.
False Start: Virginia Tech – It was a mistake-filled road loss to a good Boston College team. Welcome to the ACC season of depth and parity. The Hokies are still going to win at least seven games. But on the other side …
Dead: Pitt – The defending Coastal champs got thumped at home by Virginia. The ACC schedule isn’t totally miserable – there’s no Clemson or Florida State – but Ohio is no picnic this week, and at Penn State and UCF could make this a rough September. The Panthers then have to dive back into conference play with five road games to play.
False Start: Georgia Tech – Oooooh, the Yellow Jackets got blown out by Clemson. Oooooh. No shame there – watch out for a bit of a run before a rough mid-season patch of road games.
Dead: USC – The Trojans beat Fresno State, but it was a fight, they lost QB JT Daniels, and now they have to face Stanford, at BYU, Utah, at Washington and at Notre Dame before the midseason. Meanwhile, USC fans appear to be waiting in joyful hope before Saint Urban arrives.
False Start: Miami – Going back to Week 0, Miami made a whole slew of mistakes, but it had its chance late against Florida. Now Jarren Williams has a little game experience, the team got a chance to rest up, and if it beats North Carolina, it joins Virginia and Syracuse in the Second Best ACC Team discussion.
Dead: BYU – What’s the point? There’s no conference title game to shoot for, the College Football Playoff is out, and the team is locked into the Hawaii Bowl. The home game against Utah is what mattered, and it was yet another loss.
NEXT: Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
5. Ryan Day and Jim Harbaugh
They get paid a ton and they’re at dream jobs at superpower programs, but strip that all away, and sometimes it just sucks to be these two.
Ohio State deleted Florida Atlantic’s account after a breathtaking first quarter, but the defense gave up two long fourth quarter touchdown drives and the offense didn’t keep up its intensity.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?!
Michigan ripped apart Middle Tennessee, but the offense didn’t score on every possession, and there was the expected Week 1 sloppiness, and …
BOOOOOOOOOOOO. Shea Patterson only completed 17-of-29 passes with no interceptions and three touchdowns … BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Sometimes, social media, it’s okay to take the double-digit point win for the answer.
4. We all need more Lane Kiffin
You just know that the Florida Atlantic head coach was looking across the field at the Ohio State team loaded with NFL talent, thinking, “give ME that program and we win this game by 75.”
Nothing against Florida Atlantic – who doesn’t want to live, work, play, go to school, die in Boca Raton? – but Kiffin is too good to not be in charge of a major program again. We all need a high-profile head coach who’ll tweet out this …
3. SEC bashing
Forgetting that Alabama, Georgia and LSU won in a walk, and that Florida and Auburn pulled off tough wins they needed to have, the world had a great time ripping apart the SEC when Ole Miss (Memphis), Tennessee (Georgia State), South Carolina (North Carolina) and Missouri (Wyoming) all lost, and after Arkansas looked dreadful against Portland State.
None of the losses mattered all that much, however, if Texas A&M gets obliterated at Clemson, and LSU falls at Texas, get ready for open season on the conference that’s supposed to be the best in college football … and none of that will make a difference, either.
The rest of the SEC being disappointing doesn’t mean Alabama and Georgia are all of a sudden bad at college football, and if the Aggies and/or Tigers win, be prepared for the SEC-SEC-SEC chanting backlash to hit hard.
2. As a nation, we need stronger early games.
This weekend needed the NFL.
It’s not like watching Jalen Hurts wasn’t fun on Sunday night, and Notre Dame-Louisville was at least competitive, but those games were something to do because nothing else was on.
College football has to take advantage of having the football spotlight all to itself in the opening weekend, and that means there can’t be 40 games vs. FCS teams and just one matchup – really, there were two with Northwestern ranked in one poll playing Stanford along with the Auburn-Oregon game – of top 25 teams.
1. These games are LONNNNNG.
Coaches need to do a better job of preparing for the ridiculously long and often hot Week 1 games.
Intensity coming out of the locker room is great, but these games are pushing four hours at times after the TV timeouts, the needs-to-be-shortened interminable halftime, and with the guys still trying to get into playing shape.
You can drill all you want, but with no preseason games, teams and players are going to hit a wall. Granted, this goes for both sides, but it’s so, so, so to hold off a losing team once the momentum shifts.
This happened in the Boise State comeback against Florida State, the big Georgia State fourth quarter against Tennessee, the North Carolina win over South Carolina, the Nevada win over Purdue, and the Auburn win over Oregon. The teams in the lead punched themselves out, and the teams that were down scrambled back.
Remember this, too, when it comes to the wagering world. Michigan dominated Middle Tennessee. Ohio State blew apart Florida Atlantic, and Texas A&M owned Texas State. None of the favorites covered after letting down late.
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the SEVENTH prognosticator on the set of the new FOX College Football Pregame thingy …
Unlike one guy on the set, I will say the word Michigan. I’ll say lots of other words, too. Good ones.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
Of course going 3-3 isn’t what my program is all about, but it was Week 1 and I’m finding my groove.
Fortunately, these picks are all correct.
– Texas A&M -17.5 over Clemson
– Wisconsin -35 over. Central Michigan
– Tennessee -3.5 over BYU
– Stanford +2.5 over USC
– Missouri -14 over West Virginia
– New Mexico State +54.5 over Alabama (but Bama to win outright)
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5) Overrated: Puma Pass
Underrated: Jawon Pass
4) Overrated: Trader Joe’s
Underrated: Trader Hoe’s (As the daughter just mistakenly texted me asking what I wanted from there. The response of “something naturally voluptuous with no major tattoos or strange piercings” was deleted at the last possible moment for fear of suffering the indignity of a disapproving emoji being thrown back in my face.)
3) Overrated: Dancing boy bands
Underrated: Getting the chance to be treated like a princess
2) Overrated: Five straight days of Week 1
Underrated: Week 0
1) Overrated: Bo Nix for 57:55
Underrated: Bo Nix for the final 2:05
Sorry if this column sucked, I wasn’t my fault …
Just when I thought I had a chance to make it good …
