What the College Football Playoff rankings would be right now, and what the pecking order is, in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy.
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Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
I picked the wrong week to send my poles out to get cleaned. My opening act can’t come close to touching this …
I promise, we are going to get to the fun stuff, like talking College Football Playoff, and other things like that, but first …
Everyone, I’m about to give the insider tip on the tech stock early.
For this to work, though, I need you all to make the intellectual leap with me when it comes to the new Pay For Fair Play jazz that’s going to quickly sweep through the college sports world.
WARNING: I can’t change the future. I can only see what’s going to happen, and you’re probably not going like it.
I’ve had over a dozen conversations over the past week or so with friends of the program and colleagues in the business about what’s about to happen in the college sports world, and they’ve all gone something like this …
Me: You’re all in on players and college athletes being able to generate revenue off of their fame and likenesses, right?
Friend of the Program (FOP): Yeah, of course. It’s about time this finally happened. It’s been long overdue.
Me: So you’re totally cool with players getting paid? If it was up to you, what would be your plan?
FOP: Something like what’s coming. I’m not really for colleges just straight up paying players as employees, but this way, you’re making someone else pay them. It works out for just about everyone.
Me: Everyone but the NCAA.
FOP: The NCAA will be fine. It’ll have to take on a new role, though.
Me: Like what?
FOP: Regulation. It’ll have to come up with a way to make sure this all works and runs smoothly.
Me: Regulate what? Game over. That’s it. Players will be able to take money.
FOP: Well, we don’t want to encourage cheating.
Me: What’s cheating? That whole concept is going to be blown up. So, let’s say Zion Williamson decides he likes Duke and wants to stay an extra year, so he cuts an eight-figure shoe deal with Nike to get the financial ball roll rolling … is that kosher?
FOP: Yeah, that’s perfect. The guy gets to stay in school and get paid.
Me: Okay, that’s basketball. Let’s say Trevor Lawrence wants to do a deal with Hair Club For Men after his freshman year … we’re good, right?
FOP: Of course.
Me: So what if XYZ State is a Nike school, and Nike wants to offer Johnny Five-Star 50k to sign on, and ABC Tech is an Adidas school, and it wants Mr. Five-Star, so Adidas gets into a bidding war offering him 60k of shoe deal money to sign on?
FOP: Uhhhhhh, that doesn’t seem right. That’s different. That’s recruiting to a school, not a player being at a school and profiting off of it …
Me: It’s a player capitalizing and profiting off of his likeness, right? What if Uncle Phil Knight REALLY wants a superstar prospect or transfer to go to Oregon – other Nike schools be damned – and offers that player a mega-contract and his own branded shoe to be a Duck. How’s that actually different than the Zion hypothetical?
FOP: The NCAA would likely regulate this by age and by players who had already signed on.
Me: Can’t do it. Age doesn’t matter in this, and the NCAA wouldn’t have any say if this becomes a federal law. Okay … what if Whatsamatta U. wants, say, a D’Eriq King type to come to its school. Can’t it get one of its sponsors or affiliates to pony up the ad dollar dough to entice him to transfer?
FOP: That would get so sticky so fast.
Me: But that’s the deal. What’s profiting off of likeness, and why is this being defined by doing an ad deal or a job? What if Jim Bob Booster wants to give a kid a big bag of cash or a car to sign on or transfer to his school? How is that wrong and Zion cutting a Nike deal okay? Both guys are getting paid for who they are …
FOP: No, not really. One is taking advantage of opportunities provided by playing at a school, and the other is just taking things to go to a school. There’s a difference.
Me: Sort of, but not really, and there’s not going to be any way to police this without being totally hypocritical. How is picking a school because one gives a kid a better overall financial package any different than a kid picking one school because he’ll get a scholarship over another that won’t?
And on and on it goes from there.
Everyone, get used to the idea in a big, big hurry that this is it. You can’t be just be a little bit pregnant here, or unring Julian Edelman’s bell after seeing Bill Belichick’s junk as he got out of the hot tub.
There is absolutely no difference between a kid cutting an ad or marketing deal and a kid getting money and benefits just because. Profiting off likeness is profiting off likeness no matter how it’s defined.
Once this starts, it’ll be off to the races. With the exception of dealing with gambling companies, there will be no realistic regulation when it comes to what a player can and can’t take, partially because it won’t be possible to go through the proper vetting on every deal.
The schools that put the pieces in place first will dominate. It’s going to take a professional marketing and financial sales pitch to players, and if someone is smart, it starts with next year’s recruiting class.
You know who’s going to figure this out the fastest? The players and recruits, because all it will take is one school and one pitch and one plan so show a guy how he’s going to profit, and everyone else will follow.
And you know what? As I keep saying throughout all of this …
It’s all going to be okay.
You’re still going to love college sports just as much, if not more, because more kids will stick around instead of turning pro early.
Okay, so ….
“… and left me as impotent as a Nevada boxing commissioner.”
What’s the NCAA’s move. What’s its ultimate goal here?
It has to relax. Once it figures out how this is all going to work, it’s a good thing.
The NCAA doesn’t need to care about the players making money. What’s it to them? In fact, it’s better if this new Pay For Fair Play thing kicks in, because 1) the NCAA doesn’t have to do anything, 2) the players become bigger stars to 3) help crank up the eye-balls on the product which 4) boosts up the ad revenue and TV and media deals.
What the NCAA can absolutely not live with is a player union.
If that happens, then the players are going to want a piece of the overall revenue, including TV money, concessions, gate sales, etc., and then it’s really on. As long as the players can’t figure out that side, the NCAA is okay.
So what if a player gets a few bucks for peddling some dumbass energy bar or insurance gimmick? As long as the NCAA doesn’t have to foot the bill for any of this, it’s all good.
NEXT: Enough of this tomfoolery … who’s going to be in the College Football Playoff?
Men making other men mad about a hypothetical thing that doesn’t exist and will be settled in a few weeks. That’s what I’m here for.
What if the College Football Playoff committee went through its ranking world starting now instead of waiting until November 5th?
There’s actually no point – the only reason they do it before the final rankings that matter is to sharpen up the process and generate a buzz – but it’s still fun.
Even so, it would be a more interesting intellectual exercise if it was done now, just to get the committee on the record to know what everyone is thinking.
Remember, when it comes to the CFP rankings, 1) the AP and Coaches polls don’t exist, 2) no outside systems or rankings are allowed in the room, and 3) the CFP has its own proprietary stat system which allows the committee to rank Team A vs. Team B.
And in the end, it just comes down to who the committee thinks the four best teams are.
However, in the past, the committee has gone all in on doing its first few go-rounds of rankings based solely on resumés. At the end of the rainbow it might stick in a 2017 Alabama here or a 2016 Ohio State there, just because, but the process is a little more true and fair when it doesn’t count.
So with that in mind, here’s what the guess would be on the CFP rankings if they came out this week.
1. Ohio State. Totally and completely dominant so far, the Buckeyes would have the combination of things the committee would fall in love with. The performance on the field is part of it, and the road wins over Nebraska and Indiana – that room respects conference victories, especially for away games – would help. The Michigan State blowout would seal it.
2. LSU. The win at Texas might just mean enough to be in the No. 1 spot. The Tigers would absolutely not be any lower than this.
3. Georgia. Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Notre Dame. The committee system would love the metrics of the victory over an Irish team that dominated a one-loss Virginia.
4. Alabama. Remember, for right now, resumé, resumé, resumé. South Carolina can’t be the best win. If the final rankings were done at the moment, Bama would be in the top spot, but there isn’t a good win to hang any sort of a hat on. No. 4 would actually be generous because, technically, many in the room would be arguing for …
5. Florida. It might not have been a whole lot of pretty, but because Auburn beat Oregon and won at Texas A&M, Florida’s victory last week would generate a whole bunch of respect.
6. Wisconsin. There would be a massive debate over this spot, but the blowout over Michigan would be better and stronger than anything done by …
7. Clemson. Remember, 44-16 never happened. This is all in a self-contained season. Of course 13-0 Clemson will get in, but for now, the close call over North Carolina would hurt. On the plus side, the 14-point win over Texas A&M would get the Tigers ahead of …
8. Oklahoma. Here’s how this would go. It’s been fun and all, but the wins over Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech and Kansas would almost be worthless in a side-by-side comparison like the CFP creates it. Now, beat Texas this week, and everything changes.
9. Penn State. There isn’t a great win, but the Nittany Lions have been dominant. The win over Pitt would have to suffice as the top victory so far, but the undefeated aspect would get the Nittany Lions the nod over …
10. Notre Dame. The Irish would have a good win over Virginia, and they’d boast the most acceptable defeat among the top one-loss teams with their dogfight at Georgia. Feel free to flip-flop the Irish with Auburn for this spot.
With all of this in mind …
It would be nice if the CFP could be transparent about this, but it won’t be, so I’ll be the one getting yelled at.
This will change, but for the moment … what’s the College Football Playoff pecking order? If all things are equal, here’s the best guess on where the respect will be in terms of how the committee is going to credit the accomplishments and seed the teams.
1. Unbeaten SEC champion
2. Unbeaten Big Ten champion
3. Unbeaten Big 12 champion
4. Unbeaten Clemson
5. One-loss SEC champion
6. One-loss Big Ten champion
7. One-loss Pac-12 champion
8. One-loss Big 12 champion
9. One-loss SEC championship loser to an unbeaten SEC champion
10. One-loss ACC champion Clemson
11. Two-loss SEC champion if it hands an SEC team its only loss along the way – like Auburn beating Alabama two years ago – or in the championship
12. One-loss Notre Dame if Georgia is 13-0 SEC champion
13. One-loss SEC team not in championship – like, maybe, the LSU/Alabama loser – if that one loss came against the 13-0 SEC champ.
14. One-loss Big Ten championship loser
15. One-loss Ohio State if not in Big Ten championship
16. Two-loss Big Ten champion if it beats an undefeated team in the championship
17. One-loss Notre Dame if Georgia at least makes the SEC Championship
18. One-loss Oklahoma if it loses the Big 12 Championship
To be honest, I’m not quite sure how to handle the one potential twist we’ve never seen before – the one-loss Power Five champion that beat NO ONE. That could be what happens to Clemson.
At the end of all the fun, the precedent will still hold – it just will. Go 12-1 or 13-0 with a Power Five championship, and you’re almost certainly in as long as one of the P5er champs has two losses.
NEXT: I’ll also wish I didn’t get hosed on the FroYo toppings …
The Will Smith version will give me more, just because
When, not if, I find some genie in a bottle and I’m granted three wishes, wish No. 3 will be my loophole around the “no wishing for more wishes” hoo-ha.
It clearly states under Sec. 5 Article 44.13, Part J in the Genie Wish Rule Handbook that “Genie shall, without fear or favor, grant three wishes to whomever releases genie from the lamp by rubbing or polishing said lamp in a fair but vigorous manner.”
It says NOTHING about not being able to repeat the process over and over again. So wish No. 3 is for the genie to go back in the bottle.
My first wish would, of course, be for the ability to edit my tweets.
My second wish? I’ll get to saving the kids with cancer on the next go-round, and I’ll consider using it for environmentally safe straws that both do and don’t suck. However, wish No. 2 will be for …
SHORTER COLLEGE FOOTBALL HALFTIMES.
I reach my boiling point on this every three years or so – sorry if you’ve heard this before – but it’s getting more ridiculous than ever.
I know, I know … “But the bands …”
It’s 2019. Enough. The world doesn’t need another rendition of “thank u, next” or some celebration honoring the catalog of REO Speedwagon.
Bands are a necessary part of the college football experience, but before the game, after the game, and/or in a neatly-compacted NFL-timed 12-minute halftime blast.
I’m not exaggerating here. Just as the first half of Michigan State-Ohio State ended, I drove kid’s friend home, got lost when the directions were wrong, doubled back and dropped her off, stopped and got FroYo, filled up my gas tank, had a meaningful conversation about whether or not other kid was going to dye part – but not all – of her hair blue, watched one Major League Baseball at-bat, and HALFTIME WAS STILL GOING ON FOR ANOTHER FIVE MINUTES.
I know college football halftimes are supposed to be 20 minutes now, but for the big national TV games, not … a … chance.
College football, you have a better replay system than the NFL – by a mile – and a better overtime set-up. You have a better pass interference rule, and the one-foot in bounds thing solid.
But the pros have you on this. 12-minute halftimes.
Thank you. Next.
NEXT: Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
5. No Urban, no problem
Have you noticed how Ohio State isn’t its normal nationally despised self?
Maybe it’s anecdotal, but I’m just not hearing, reading or seeing anything negative about this year’s team so far. It’s not just because it’s been perfect – past Buckeye teams started out great, and fan bases were all too ready to pounce the first time there was a bad series of downs – it’s because no one has ever heard Ryan Day say anything.
Fans wanted to see Urban Meyer lose because he’s Urban Meyer. Ryan Day is a guy. He’s doing a fabulous job with all the pressure in the world on him to keep the machine going, but it’s not like anyone is going to take extra delight in seeing him drop a game at some point, if he does.
Watch the Buckeyes lose? Yeah, a whole ton of fans would love that. Watch Ohio State fans – easily the grouchiest fan base I’ve ever dealt with – be sad? 13 other Big Ten schools live for that. But for now, nah. The team has simply been great, and there’s no baggage attached to it.
4. Auburn 36, Florida 33
With Bo Nix out there in the Florida-Auburn game this week, CBS made a little bit of a deal about what his dad, Patrick Nix, did back on October 15th, 1994.
It was my first SEC game.
A friend of mine – who passed away from cancer a few years ago – was the biggest die-hard of die-hard Florida fans. He set up a trip for a group of us from Chicago to go to Gainesville to show the Big Ten country types what this whole SEC thing was about.
I’ve been ten feet away from the game-winning score at four of the last six national championships, but this was the game. This was the one.
The Gators were 5-0 and ranked No. 1 – led by Heisman front-runner Terry Dean – but Auburn got up, Dean couldn’t stop throwing picks, some Danny Wuerffel guy stepped in, Auburn RB Stephen Davis went off, Patrick Nix converted a 4th-and-10 to keep the game alive with 51 seconds to go, and two plays later connected with Frank Sanders for the Auburn game-winning touchdown. (At the 28:10 mark of this).
Throw in the entire experience – and the night at the bars – and it was the college football day that sparked the concept of CollegeFootballNews.com a few years later.
3. Just … don’t.
I know the whole idea of the targeting rules still offends the sensibilities of a whole slew of football fans, but the players are figuring it out. They’re tackling differently, they’re not coming up with the kill shots from the past, and if there’s a missed stop or two, who cares? The game is still fun AND everyone’s brain is getting destroyed just a little bit slower.
So quit arguing the helmet-to-helmet hits. We should be past that, but too many broadcasts aren’t.
And more than that – I heard this a few times this weekend in both college and pro games – don’t say something like, “well, the runner lowered his head, what’s the defender supposed to do?” … as the guy is lying on the ground with trainers around him.
Don’t hit the other guy in the head.
2. Turn a camera on the CFP process
I went through the first go-round on the College Football Playoff media mock rankings when it got started. I will forever be completely and totally geeked out-honored at getting to combine forces with Tony Barnhart in the role of Archie Manning.
It’s a great idea by the CFP – so the media can know how thorough the entire process is – and it’s still going on. At the very least, it shows that it’s not just a bunch of people sitting in a room throwing darts at a board. Agree or disagree with the rankings all you want, but just know that it takes a big fight and a ton of time to get there.
They just did the latest round of the media mock rankings, and it was broadcasted on twitter.
There’s just no point in the CFP not doing that for the real thing, too.
What’s being protected here? These aren’t some top secret calls to the Ukraine or anything – they’re people creating college football rankings. Broadcast them, and of course some fans will be mad at how it goes. At least everyone can see how painstaking each decision is.
1. The Oklahoma defense
Last year, the Oklahoma defense finished the season 114th in total defense and 101st in scoring D. On third down stops, it was 119th in the nation, allowing teams to convert over 46% of their chances.
Enter new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, and welcome to the new Sooner D.
Fine, so the stats are about to be obliterated after what’s going to be a shootout with Texas this week. but at the moment. OU is fifth in the nation in third down defense – teams are converting just 25% of their chances – after being second in the country before the Kansas game. It’s a not-that-bad 46th in total defense, too.
With this offense, and to potentially take that next step and actually win a College Football Playoff game, OU’s D just needs to hold serve. This one can do that.
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the SEVENTH prognosticator on the set of the new FOX College Football Pregame thingy …
I would pay just to be around Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Reggie Bush, and even Urban, to hear them all talk unfiltered about the all-timer 2005 Notre Dame-USC game.
Had there been instant replay, it’s likely that Matt Leinart’s tumble to the end zone would’ve been ruled a fumble out of bounds (7:30 of this below), and there wouldn’t have been the big-stones call by Pete Carroll to go for the touchdown instead of a field goal, and there wouldn’t have been the Bush Push by some guy who didn’t win the Heisman that year.
Had Notre Dame won this, even with an earlier 44-41 loss to Michigan State, it would’ve almost certainly have ended up in the top two of the final BCS standings over USC. It would’ve gone on to play Vince Young and Texas in the Rose Bowl for the national title.
Instead, of course, we got one of the greatest games of all-time when Texas got by USC, and Notre Dame ended up getting roasted by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 30-11 SU, 21-19-2 ATS
See, now this is why you’re here. There might have been some fine fellowship, delightful banter, and a tasty orange drink served with a festive array of store-bought snack cakes, but you want the guy that went 5-1 against the spread last week and 10-3-1 over the last two outings.
It’s okay, you stayed your hour.
Fortunately, these picks are all correct.
Do this, or I’m part of the next Snoop pregame festivities flying around the pole. If you choose to dabble, sign up with BetMGM though this link to take part in any of these games or other action on the schedule.
– Virginia +1.5 over Miami
– Texas +11 over Oklahoma (but OU straight up)
– West Virginia +10.5 over Iowa State (but Iowa State straight up)
– Texas Tech +10 over Baylor (but Baylor straight up)
– Alabama -17 over Texas A&M
– USC +11 over Notre Dame (but Notre Dame straight up)
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5) Overrated: The twitter reaction to the hit on Mason Rudolph. Apparently, no one on social media had ever seen or heard of …
Underrated: Two words: Mike Tyson
4) Overrated: Miami at 2-3 under head coach Manny Diaz
Underrated: Temple at 4-1 without would’ve-been head coach Manny Diaz
3) Overrated: Rocket Mortgage ads that use mascots, and the need for a car company to use former college players, because …
Underrated: Companies can’t use current college athletes in ads, but will soon be able to.
2) Overrated: Pretty much the entire real world as we know it right now
Underrated: Pretending to be really, really angry over some rival fan doing your hand signal upside-down.
1) Overrated: The 1982 SMU team that started out 6-0 – and went 11-0-1 by beating nine teams that didn’t finish with winning records.
Underrated: The 2019 6-0 SMU Mustangs
Sorry if this column sucked, I wasn’t my fault …
Welcome to the guy who was less excited about something as you were reading this entire column …
