What I think, know and believe about the college football world, KJ Costello, the Mississippi State offense, and the sample size needed for the College Football Playoff, all in the latest Cavalcade of Whimsy.
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– Check out all the past Cavalcades
Sorry if this column sucks, it’s not my fault …
Like LSU, at least it leads the nation in run defense.
– College Football Playoff Sample Size
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
It’s almost as if the Pac-12 plays its game after dark, or something
First question I’ve been asked on every appearance over the last 48 hours: “Can you believe what Mississippi State did to LSU?”
Uhhh, yeah.
America, have you really not seen the Mike Leach offense before?
Of course the 623 yards and five touchdowns put up by KJ Costello in Mississippi State’s stunning 44-34 win at LSU were amazing, but this is what Leach’s teams do.
They put up ungodly numbers.
They take a slew of unnecessary chances when they’re up big in the second half, making games far more interesting than they need to be.
They sort of play defense – but not really – on the way to a 4th-to-6th place conference finish and, God willing, a mid-tier bowl game.
And they play a wacky-fun brand of college football.
But this all seems foreign to a whole lot of SEC fans, as if what happened on Saturday against LSU came from out of nowhere.
Of course it was incredible. Of course Mississippi State fans should be jacked. Of course the win is a big freaking deal. However, LSU really was missing an entire NFL team full of players from last year, including CB Derek Stingley Jr. – possibly the best college football player in America not named Trevor – who only makes all the difference in the world if he wasn’t out sick with non-COVID related issues.
But none of that really matters, especially this year.
How great was that Mississippi State performance? It’s been one of the rock-steady absolutes so far in 2020 is that almost all teams are really, really off to start the season. Without a regular spring practice and with the summer sessions screwed up, almost no one has the timing down.
The timing seemed just super for a Leach offense that’s all about quick reads and precision.
But again, college football, have you not seen this thing before? LSU fans should know the numbers better than anyone else.
Who led the nation in passing last year? Nope – it wasn’t Joe Burrow. It was Washington State’s Anthony Gordon, and he led by a mile averaging a ridiculous 51 more yards per game than Burrow.
Wazzu led the nation in passing in 2019. It led the nation in passing in 2018. Wazzu’s passing game was a disaster in 2017 – it finished second. It totally bottomed out in 2016 – it finished third.
It led the nation in passing in 2015, and 2014, and was fourth in 2013 …
This is what Mike Leach teams do.
The 623 passing yards were crazy – it’s not like this was Oregon State the Bulldogs were facing – but throwing it around the yard 60 times and putting up video game numbers is a day at the office.
And now this experiment gets interesting. As a head coach, Leach has never had the players to work with like he has at Mississippi State.
That doesn’t excuse that he has never taken a team to a conference championship game, much less win one – if you can get to a Power Five championship at Northwestern, or Baylor, or Wake Forest, or Duke … – but now he has the lines, and he has the talent to fit the system.
As if you needed more reasons to watch SEC football …
Oh yes, this will be fun.
Seriously, just how good is Stanford QB Davis Mills?
America, have you really not seen KJ Costello play? My guess is yes.
A little inside baseball stuff here – Stanford being awesome equals pageview and site traffic death.
Over the last two-plus decades, CFN has always covered the Pac-10/Pac-12 with the same sort of analysis and effort of any of the other top conferences, but unless USC is USC, you can actually hear people ignoring the site whenever anything about the league is posted.
Triple that whenever anything is put up about Stanford, even when Andrew Luck was busy being the greatest pro prospect quarterback since John Elway, so it’s not a shocker that Costello needed this LSU game to become a college football name in the SEC world.
Costello was a massive recruit for Stanford in 2016. Jacob Eason was the biggest star quarterback prospect in the class, but Costello wasn’t far behind.
There’s no questioning his size, his arm, his composure, his personality, or his smarts – the guy graduated from Stanford – but he got banged up early last year and wasn’t quite able to come back to form when he was able to go.
Now he’s healthy, and now he’s about to be 2020’s college football big thing.
WATCH THIS ⤵️
Our QB‼️ | #HailState🐶
— Mississippi State Football (@HailStateFB) September 26, 2020
In 2018 he bombed away for 3,540 yards and 29 touchdowns, torched Leach’s Washington State team for 323 yards and four touchdowns in a wild 41-38 loss, and appeared to be ready to be on the verge of stardom before getting hurt.
Now, he’s the exact right quarterback in the exact right system at the exact right time. No, he’s not Trevor Lawrence, but he might just be the No. 2 quarterback off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft if he can stay healthy and keep this going.
Welcome to college football’s newest superstar, and if he can do that again against Alabama and in wins on a few more national stages, welcome to the lead dog in the 2020 Heisman Trophy race.
Welcome to the KJ Costello, Mississippi State show.
– College Football Playoff Sample Size
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
– Sure-Thing Picks of the Century
NEXT: College Football Playoff sample size
Mmmmmmmm, samples
How much of a sample size do you really need to know whether or not a college football team is good?
More to the point, how many games will the College Football Playoff panel of judges really need to see to know whether or not a team is worthy of the four-team tournament?
I know, I’m not supposed to violate the first two rules of Fight Club by talking about Fight Club, but it’s true. On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
If a college football team plays a 12-game regular season, it’s going to have more chances to lose, more chances for injury, more wear and tear, and more shots at not playing well on a random off day than a team that plays fewer games.
However, will the Big Ten be penalized by the CFP for playing an eight game season with a championship, and will the Pac-12 be all but disqualified for a seven-game regular season with a title game?
Nah.
In most seasons, every Power Five program has one tough non-conference game, a few cupcakes, and then a regular season. The Big Ten and Pac-12 each played a nine-game conference season last year – do those one or two extra games really matter?
Does it really make a difference that Clemson has a win in the column after playing The Citadel? If Texas goes 11-0 with a Big 12 championship, does it get an extra cookie because it whacked UTEP?
Expect the unwritten rules of the College Football Playoff to apply this year more than ever. Go unbeaten and win your Power Five conference championship, and you’re getting in. That goes for the Big Ten, the Pac-12, and it even goes for a Big 12 that’s been so miserable that it barely deserves to watch this year’s CFP, much less have a spot in it.
In this of all seasons, the College Football Playoff committee isn’t going to get too funky.
In its dream world, there are unbeaten conference champs in the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC, the Pac-12 and Big 12 eat themselves up, and there’s an obvious one-loss ACC, Big Ten, or SEC team that of course deserves the No. 4 spot.
With all of that said, does a 9-0 Big Ten champ get in? Absolutely, no questions asked, book the ticket. 8-1, though … we need to talk.
That goes extra for the Pac-12. An 8-0 Pac-12 champion is almost certainly going to be in, but 7-1 … probably not.
On the flip side, a 10-1 SEC champion and an 11-1 ACC champ are almost certainly stone-cold locks.
The CFP’s job is to take the bodies of work from all the teams playing college football and come up with the four best teams.
Power Five programs, win your conference title, don’t lose any games, and you make the CFP’s job easy.
NEXT: I Think, I Know, I Believe …
America’s newest family-friendly fun-time … Think, Know, Believe
I think LSU is going to be a whole lot better as the season goes on.
I know Derek Stingley Jr. is one of the elite players in college football and starts in the NFL right now if he was able to go.
I believe LSU beats Mississippi State if Stingley could’ve played.
I think something big is supposed to be happening in the first week of November.
I know the Pac-12 is starting up its college football season on November 6th.
I believe Pac-12 football will own the news cycle.
I think there’s still an FBS team out there that hasn’t played Campbell, Austin Peay, Houston Baptist or Stephen F. Austin.
I know the FCS has yet to beat an FBS team this year.
I believe every FBS team could’ve really, really, really used a tune-up against an FCS program.
I think the Atlanta Falcons set a new bar for gagging away a game with their loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
I know Texas Tech spent last Saturday holding the Atlanta Falcons’ beer.
I believe the Atlanta Falcons took back that beer and shotgunned it against the Chicago Bears.
NEXT: The COW footballey opinions on footballey stuff
Five Cavalcade of Whimsy footballey opinions and, like, other stuff
1. KJ Costello this …
Can we get more Houston Baptist games?
Sam Ehlinger threw for 262 yards and five touchdowns in the wild 63-56 Texas overtime win over Texas Tech.
Bailey Zappe of Houston Baptist threw for 567 yards and four touchdowns against the Red Raiders. The senior also threw for 406 yards and five scores against Louisiana Tech, and last week he threw for 480 yards and three touchdowns against North Texas.
The Huskies got rolled by the Mean Green and Bulldogs, and they lost by two to the Red Raiders, but on the year Zappe has thrown for 1,453 yards and 12 touchdowns with one interception in his three games. This week he has his final game of the season with a trip to Eastern Kentucky.
I’ll be the one that says it. America needs more Zappe.
2. Your 2020 Nebraska Cornhuskers
In our bitterly divided world that’s hopelessly lost and permanently fractured, I’ve found the one thing everyone seems to be able to agree on.
No one wants to hear from Nebraska about how hard its schedule is.
Chirp, chirp, chirp … you wanted to play college football, Nebraska. Go play college football.
You want to whine about having to open up the season at Ohio State? Kansas State just won at Oklahoma. Mississippi State just won at LSU. Go beat the Buckeyes in Columbus.
Not only did Nebraska’s schedule not change all that much – it had to go to Ohio State and Iowa and was originally slated to play Wisconsin and Penn State, anyway – it actually caught a break with the game against the Badgers being moved to Lincoln.
3. Everyone’s already playing. You can stop the sales job.
Enough with the talking point of college football being played so the players can be happy.
Enough with coaches, announcers, and other media types saying that all of this is being done “for the kids” and all the hard work they put in.
Yeah, if it was about players having fun, the school would still have a volleyball team – and maybe in-person classes.
Money, money, money, money, money, money, money, money, money and money. That’s why everyone moved heaven and earth to play college football during a global pandemic. Seeing the smiles on the faces of the 18-to-23-year-old guys is a sweetener.
4. It’s college. Sometimes you pass a test you thought you failed.
The Georgia State vs. Charlotte game this past weekend was postponed because a few Panther players tested positive for COVID-19. As it turns out, the tests yielded false results – the players were really negative.
1) Yay. 2) It’s okay. Better there was a mistake this way than the other.
It was a mistake, but it was an error on the side of caution. The system worked, Georgia State did the responsible thing to not play a game when it thought the health and safety was at risk for both sides, and the world kept spinning.
5. Everything is going to flip.
Get ready for college football to look a whole lot different than it did over the first month. As we’re seeing, there’s a massive difference for various teams as they get their timing down, their conditioning right, and they start to settle in, especially in the SEC.
Just wait. Texas A&M, LSU, Georgia’s offense, Florida’s defense – don’t overreact quite yet to what you just saw, SEC fans.
Oh, whatever. Overreact. You wouldn’t be SEC fans if you didn’t.
NEXT: The sure-thing picks of the century for this week
This week’s reason I should be the next Commissioner of the Big Ten …
June 23, 1996. That’s when I was first introduced to a personal e-mail address. I paid $15 a month, then down to $8 for an account I kept open, just because. I’ve paid that for over 24 years, and as of last Friday, the account is no more.
Yes, I was the last person in America to pay for an email address, and I’d like to take this opportunity to sincerely apologize to Harry, the representative whose heart I broke in 1,000 pieces as he worked every angle of his flip-chart of rebuttals to try keeping me as a loyal customer.
But I held firm.
24 years of paying for e-mail. It’s just that sort of ruthless business acumen and fiscal responsibility I’ll bring as the next leader of the Big Ten.
The sure-thing, 100%, rock-solid lock, sell the house, sell the kids, no doubt about it picks of the century for this week
PICK SO FAR: 6-4 SU, 5-7 ATS
Sorry I missed you last week – personal stuff that wasn’t a whole lot of fun. But I’m back, and unfortunately, my record from two weeks ago still counts.
Overall, the picks are rocking so far. In this, I’m about as sharp as the Duke offense. To make up for it, I’m supersizing to get back in the game.
Fortunately, all these picks are correct.
– Boston College +13.5 over North Carolina (but UNC straight up)
– Virginia Tech -10.5 over Duke
– Oklahoma -7 over Iowa State
– Arkansas State -3 over Coastal Carolina
– Texas A&M +13.5 over Alabama (but Bama straight up)
– Mississippi State -18 over Arkansas
– North Texas -1.5 over Southern Miss
Bet on any of all these games at BetMGM. Please.
C.O.W. shameless gimmick item …
The weekly five Overrated/Underrated aspects of the world
5. Overrated: (painfully dated reference alert) Spinal Tap drummers
Underrated: Teams on Houston’s schedule
4. Overrated: The jacked Jake from State Farm in the extra-smedium shirts
Underrated: The pudgy Jake from State Farm in the extra baggy polo
3. Overrated: 2020 Miami-Florida State about five minutes in
Underrated: 1987 Miami-Florida State in the discussion of greatest college football games of all-time
2. Overrated: Honestly not knowing there was a big NBA conference final game on an NFL Sunday – not my fault, it’s always on the sender if the promotional message isn’t received – and not really having the first clue who’s in the MLB playoffs
Underrated: Being warm and cozy in an all-football bubble that blocks out the rest of the world, especially the icky stuff
1. Overrated: (okay, not really, but I need this for the bit) Mississippi State’s KJ Costello, 36-of-60 for 623 yards and 5 TDs with 2 interceptions – he’s currently 5th in the SEC in passer rating
Underrated: Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, 22-of-31 for 395 yards and 3 TDs with 1 interception – he currently leads the SEC in passer rating
Sorry if this column sucked, I wasn’t my fault …
Like Florida State, this column is in Tank For Trevor mode.
– KJ Costello Miss State Show
– College Football Playoff Sample Size
– I Think, I Know, I Believe
– 5 Footballey Opinions
