Cathie Wood's ARK Invest firm on Wednesday released a report about SpaceX with a bold forecast that Elon Musk's rocket company will hit an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030. ARK Invest collaborated with consulting firm Mach33 on the report.
ARK's SpaceX model expects a base enterprise value of around $2.5 trillion in 2030, representing about a 38% compound annual rate of return from its last funding round at $350 billion in December 2024.
The firm's bear case has an enterprise value of $1.7 trillion or less in 2030, which has a 25% probability, according to ARK's analysis. The bull case of $3.1 trillion or more also has about a 25% probability.
ARK and Mach33 used a Monte Carlo simulation in crafting the report, which is a sampling technique to determine a range of possible outcomes.
The report notes that SpaceX's business model operates like a flywheel.
SpaceX uses cash to build rockets and satellites to create orbital bandwidth. The company acquires Starlink customers by selling its space-based internet services, and reinvests the resulting cash in its business. As the cycle continues, funds gradually flow toward Musk's goal of Mars development until the Starlink satellite constellation is complete.
As of June 2025, Starlink had more than six million active connections across 140 countries, according to the report. The base case trajectory implies bandwidth growth by 30 times in five years to 20,000 Terabits per second, while the on-orbit mass of Starlink satellites increases by 13 times.
ARK's research suggests that SpaceX could generate around $300 billion in annual revenue once the Starlink constellation is completed, which could occur around 2035 with the base case. That represents about 15% of total spending on global communications, according to ARK.
SpaceX Mars Mission
Once the constellation is complete, ARK assumes the company will sustain the satellites and ramp up investments in Mars.
SpaceX's Starship should improve and become increasingly reusable, which will translate to fewer vehicles and more frequent launch cycles, while delivering the same amount of payloads to orbit.
Based on Falcon 9 data, ARK expects Starship's turnaround time to decline at a constant rate of 27% while payloads to orbit double.
In ARK's view, Musk's Optimus robots and Boring Company machines have been engineered to build infrastructure in extraterrestrial environments to support Mars colonization. The firm believes that Mars will account for a growing portion of SpaceX's enterprise value growth over time, but capital improvements and related cash flows are much more difficult to speculate than Starlink's model.
ARK expects SpaceX to devote a "small" portion of its budget to the Mars mission until the Starlink constellation is complete, before shifting resources. Given the scale and long-term objective, investors are unlikely to earn much of a return on capital for a "significant" period of time, ARK wrote.
The model assumes that Starships will incorporate Mars-adapted Optimus Robots, with the fleet "growing to the millions" over time. The Optimus workforce will build infrastructure to support a permanent colony, and ARK expects productivity to improve over time. However, payloads to support early human habitation could be quite complex and unlikely to "meaningfully" contribute to SpaceX's book value. A previous Mach33 report estimates it could cost $77 million per person to establish and sustain a "small" Mars outpost. That assumes a crew of 10 people with 152 metric tons of equipment and 950 cubic meters of volume.
Mars activities could lower servicing costs for satellites on Earth and pave the way for mining asteroids, but those opportunities were "beyond the scope" of the forecast.
2040 Potential
Mach33 and ARK's 2040 forecast pegs SpaceX's base case valuation at $12.8 trillion, with bear and bull cases at $10.1 trillion and $14.5 trillion, respectively.
"That extra spread represents a decade's worth of Mars optionality layered on top of a cash-rich Starlink core," the firm wrote. However, that depends on if SpaceX can turn Starship into a reliable interplanetary vehicle.
Potential Risks
However, these are just predictions based on scenarios that ARK believes are plausible. There are still a number of risks that could affect performance. Musk's departure from SpaceX or a natural disaster or pandemic could throw off the outcomes "considerably." Space is also a challenging domain, ARK wrote. If Starship fails to achieve rapid reusability, it could have a material impact the projected value for the company.
The report noted that there is "no guarantee" that Optimus will be capable of supporting infrastructure development within the modeled timeline. Any delays could also lead to significant schedule slippage, given the timing constraints of interplanetary launch windows. Increased competition could reduce the total addressable market for broadband, while fluctuations in government spending could impact revenue potential from Starshield, ARK wrote.
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