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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Jon Henley European affairs correspondent

Catalonia secessionist parties declare victory in regional elections – as it happened

A man wearing a barretina, the traditional Catalan hat, kisses his ballot while voting in Barcelona.
A man wearing a barretina, the traditional Catalan hat, kisses his ballot while voting in Barcelona. Photograph: Lluis Gene/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

I’m going to wrap this live blog up now. Here’s a summary of the evening’s developments:

  • Catalonia’s three pro-independence parties, JuntxCat, ERC and CUP, have declared victory after winning an absolute majority of 70 seats in the 135-seat parliament, dealing a severe blow to the Spanish government.
  • A record 80%-plus of Catalan voters cast their ballots in the snap election triggered by prime minister Mariano Rajoy when Madrid took control of the region in October after its illegal referendum and unilateral declaration of independence.
  • The unionist Citizens finished as the largest single party in parliament, but its 36 seats were not enough to form a majority government with other parties in favour of Catalonia remaining a part of Spain.
  • Rajoy’s centre-right People’s party lost nearly three-quarters of its seats, collapsing from 11 to just four.
  • Pro-independence politicians including Carles Puigdemont, the ousted regional president currently evading arrest in Brussels, lined up to say the vote represented a popular repudiation of article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allowed Madrid to take direct control of the region.
  • The pro-independence parties did not, however, win the popular vote, failing once again to secure a share of more than 50%.
  • The winning parties will now try to form a coalition, although it is unclear how easy that will be: there are tensions between JuntsxCat and the ERC, and the CUP’s insistence on unilateral independence could make relations with Madrid even trickier. Just restoring self-government and seeking the release of imprisoned leaders may absorb much of the movement’s energy.

Puigdemont speaks from Brussels

The ousted Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, is speaking now in Brussels, where he is evading a Spanish arrest warrant:

I want to congratulate the Catalan people, because they have sent a message to the world. The Catalan republic has beaten the monarchy and article 155. The Spanish state has been beaten. Mr Rajoy and his allies have lost. They were seeking to legitimise article 155, but they have been beaten.

Now we need to restore democracy, restore our legitimate government, our freedoms. We need to free all those people who are still in prison, but should not be. The prescription that Mr Rajoy throught would work has failed.

Things are even more positive for the pro-independence parties today, because today we have one more seat. We will have more freedom in parliament than we had before. As the legitimate president of Catalonia, I say: Mr Rajoy’s prescription is not working.

If he keeps applying the same formula he will keep failing. He needs to change. We have to find solutions. It is time not just for Mr Rajoy but for many other people to realise this.

Inés Arrimadas, the leader of the victorious pro-union Citizens party, has told supporters gathered at the Hotel Catalonia that “for the first time a unionist party has the elections in Catalonia, and it is Citizens.”

Arrimadas said the pro-independence parties “can no longer speak on behalf of everyone” and a majority of Catalan voters are clearly “in favour of union with Spain”.

Referring to the fact that secessionists have a majority in parliament but did not win the popular vote, she added that an “unfair” electoral law had given “more seats to those who have fewer votes in the street”.

Marta Rovira of the pro-independence ERC has also said that the republic “has beaten article 155”,. She called on Mariano Rajoy to withdraw the controversial constitutional measure, release the imprisoned pro-independence politicians and sit down at the negotiating table.

Citizens have voted for the republic! We want to congratulate Citizens for their performance, and JuntsxCat for being the first pro-independence party. Now we have to reopen Parliament and respect the democratic mandate.

Updated

Another JuntsxCat politician, Eduard Pujol, declares that article 155 – which allowed Madrid to take control of Catalonia – is now “dead and buried. The polls have buried it.”

Celebrations are underway at pro-independence party JuntsxCat, which finished the day as the Catalan parliament’s second largest party on 34 seats and is now in a position to try to put together a governing coalition.

“The victory of the independence movement is the victory of all – JuntsxCat, ERC and the CUP,” said the party’s Elsa Artadi.

Updated

Despite the Citizens party winning the election in terms of seats and vote share, unionist forces managed a total of just 57 seats in the Catalan parliament, compared to 70 for the combined pro-independence parties.

In a major setback to Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy, the shortfall reflected the dire performance of his centre-right People’s party, which collapsed from 11 seats in 2015 to just four.

The socialist PSC party was more successful, gaining one seat and ending on 16.

Updated

My colleague Sam Jones has filed the first take of his story on the election results with more than 90% of votes now counted:

Catalan pro-independence parties look set to hold on to their absolute majority in Thursday’s snap regional elections, dealing a severe blow to the Spanish government, which called the polls in the hope of heading off the secessionist threat.

With 90% of the votes counted, the three separatist parties are on course to win 70 seats in the 135-seat regional parliament even though the centre-right Citizens party appears to be the single party with the most seats.

Together for Catalonia, the party led by deposed Catalan president Carles Puigdemont, is expected to take 34 seats, the Catalan Republican Left 32 and the far-left, anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy four. Between them, they will have enough seats to reassemble the parliamentary majority that put them into office after the 2015 elections.

The Citizens party, which has taken a fiercely anti-independence stance, is on track to win 36 seats, the Catalan socialist party 17, Catalunya en Comú-Podem (the Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party) eight and the conservative People’s party four.

Thursday’s snap election was called in October by the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, after he used article 155 of the constitution to take control of Catalonia and sack its government over its unilateral independence referendum and subsequent declaration of independence.

The vote, which has pitted secessionists against unionists, attracted a record turnout of 80%, dispelling fears that holding the election on a weekday rather than the usual Sunday would hit turnout appeared to have been unfounded.

You can read Sam’s full story here.

An aide to Carles Puigdemont, the deposed regional president currently dodging arrest in Brussels, sent a Whatsapp message to journalists shortly after 10.30pm Spanish time.

It read simply:

As you see, we are the comeback kids.

Secessionist parties secure narrow majority with 90% of votes counted

With just over 90% of votes counted in Catalonia’s snap general election, the three pro-independence parties appear to have won a narrow two-seat majority.

If they succeed in negotiating a coalition agreement – by no means guaranteed – JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP would have a combined total of 7o seats in the 135-seat parliament.

The provisional breakdown is as follows:

1. Citizens - 36 seats

2. JuntsxCat - 34 seats

3. ERC - 32 seats

4. PSC - 17 seats

5. Catalunya in Comú-Podem - 8 seats

6. CUP - 4 seats

7. PP - 4 seats

Updated

A record turnout of more than 80%, five percentage points up on the previous 2015 poll, appears not to have produced the result many predicted – namely a swing towards Catalonia’s unionist parties who want the regions to stay part of Spain:

The Guardian’s Stephen Burgen points to one remarkable possibility if the current partial result – with around 75% of votes counted – is confirmed:

There is a real possibility that the deposed president Carles Puigdemont could be invested as the new president, but the moment he sets foot on Spanish soil he will be arrested on the charges that led him to flee to Brussels - rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds.

However, pundits claim that there are precedents for him to remain in Belgium and be the president but without executive powers. This has been a bizarre election and it appears there’s more weirdness to come.

Pro-independence parties on course for majority with 70% of votes counted

With nearly 75% of votes counted, the unionist Citizens party is still on course to win the election, but Catalonia’s three main pro-independence parties seem headed for a narrow parliamentary majority of two or three seats - but less tan 50% of the total vote:

Updated

With events now appearing to spin away from Mariano Rajoy, here’s a prophetic Sam Jones profile of the prime minister, Spain’s “safe pair of hands” who decided to risk it all on Catalonia:

Spain’s national unity has not faced a threat of this magnitude since it returned to democracy following Franco’s death and what happens over the next few months will determine not only Rajoy’s political future but also his legacy.

He has become the first Spanish prime minister to reach for the so-called nuclear option of the country’s 1978 constitution, which permits the central government to take control of an autonomous region if it “does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the constitution or other laws or acts in a way that is seriously prejudicial to the general interest of Spain”.

Rajoy, a 62-year-old political veteran, has been Spain’s prime minister for six long and difficult years. In that time, Spain has slowly retreated from the brink of economic catastrophe, witnessed the death of four decades of two-party hegemony, squirmed over a whack-a-mole succession of corruption scandals and spent 10 months deadlocked and government-less.

The question now is just how effective Rajoy’s Catalan gamble will be and whether its success or failure will eclipse his economic achievements.

Worth noting, though, that as things stand the three pro-independence parties JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP may be heading for a clear – if slim – majority in parliament, but they do not have 50% of the popular vote.

This will not be the absolute mandate they were hoping for.

This graphic of where things are with 50% of votes counted courtesy of the Guardian’s Seàn Clarke:

default

Updated

The consensus among observers, commentators and journalists appears to be building, and it’s not looking pretty for Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy in Madrid. Has his decision to call this snap Catalan election backfired?

With more than 45% of votes now counted, the useful live calculator run by political scientist and commentator Ignacio Escolar looks like this:

As you can see, it too gives the pro-independence parties a narrow majority with or without the support of the local version of the anti-austerity Podemos party, Comú-Podem. The left-wing parties and the unionists fall short of the magic 68 seats required.

Here is El Pais with the exact tally after 40%-plus of votes have been counted. The unionist Citizens are marginally ahead in vote share and could finish as the largest party, but the three pro-independence parties JuntsxCat, ERC and CUP seem, for the moment at least, on course for a narrow majority:

The count is progressing much faster now. Reuter’s chief Spain correspondent gives her verdict with around 40% of votes already tallied – it’s going to go down to the wire:

With more than 20% of the vote now counted, Guardian writer Stephen Burgen is prepared to stick his neck out:

This is looking like a catastrophe for Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy. As things stand, a secessionist coalition will have an absolute majority, his centre-right rival Ciutadans will have won the most seats and his own Popular party will have its worst ever result in Catalonia.

However, we have had few results from Barcelona and other urban areas. That could change the picture radically – but not in Rajoy’s favour. This is not what Rajoy had in mind when he called these elections.

As part of his pre-election coverage, the Guardian’s Sam Jones took a trip out to Arenys de Munt, an hour or so outside Barcelona and the town where, eight years ago, the early simmerings of regional discontent began to come to the boil:

Residents of Arenys de Munt became the first Catalans to vote on a now-familiar question: “Do you agree that Catalonia should become an independent, democratic and social state of law, integrated in the European Union?” Town after town followed suit and the movement snowballed.

Sam found the pro-independence council still deeply proud of that first symbolic 2009 poll, in which 96% of people voted to leave Spain, and mostly determined to stick to their guns. Àngel Vallcorba, a councillor for the pro-independence ERC party told him:

We’re a small place but the referendum really put us on the map. We lit the fuse and a lot of other towns and cities started holding their own consultations. Arenys de Munt is seen a bit as the bressol, or cradle, of independence.

And if their drive for independence needed any further encouragement, it came courtesy of the Spanish authorities’ reaction to the October referendum and the detention of the former Catalan vice-president andthe leaders of two grassroots pro-independence groups.

Like most independentistas, the town’s mayor argues that the Spanish authorities left them with little choice but to act unilaterally. Joan Rabasseda said:

I can’t understand how, in a democratic country, and after years and years of massive demonstrations – millions of people on the streets calling for a different relationship with the Spanish state – the answer has always been no.

If you had a million people on the streets of any other EU country calling for something, I think the government would pay attention to what they were saying … There’s never been any effort to court people.

Updated

Counting is underway, but is progressing slowly. Most observers warn against drawing any firm conclusions about the outcome until at least 80% of votes have been counted – a tally which looks a long way off at the moment:

In his analysis of what the vote might mean, Guardian contributing editor Giles Tremlett warned that the election was unlikely to heal the bitter divisions in Catalonia. The crisis could yet last for decades, he predicted:

These are extraordinary circumstances, with Catalonia split into two increasingly angry halves and polls showing that those who preach moderation or compromise are the least likely to succeed.

One side is outraged that police batons were used during the 1 October vote, that some of its leaders are now in jail and that Rajoy later imposed direct rule. This, it says, is the final proof of Madrid’s iniquity.

The other is furious that the separatists used a slim parliamentary majority – backed by less than 50% of Catalan votes – to force a confrontation with Madrid before declaring a muddled form of independence that turned out to have no substance to it. That, they say, has sowed the seeds of division, fractured Catalan society and driven away both money and jobs. And yet both sides must continue living together.

A separatist victory would do little to clear things up, and may provoke splits in the independence movement’s own ranks. Hardcore separatists want to return to the path of civil disobedience, but the leadership appears to have realised that, with the EU having turned its back, that route is blocked. Just restoring the self-government that Catalonia usually enjoys and seeking an amnesty for its own leaders may absorb much of the movement’s energy.

Apart from that, there is little indication of how it would drive the independence campaign forwards. “Tell us what you plan to so with the road map that you left only half-completed,” said the disillusioned separatist writer Bernat Dedéu.

The competing parties have chosen a range of locations in which to hold their post-election rallies, writes the Guardian’s Stephen Burgen in Barcelona – from hotels to a museum and even a bus station:

Catalunya en Comú-Podem - the Catalan version of the leftwing Podemos party - is holding theirs on a university campus. A spokeswoman said the high turnout was encouraging but said they weren’t paying much attention to the exit polls and would wait for the real results.

But if the estimations are even half right, the result could turn out to be a disappointment for the party led by the likeable history professor Xavier Domènech with ambitions to be the kingmaker in a leftist coalition made up of the pro-independence ERC and the socialists of the PSC.

With the vote count underway for little over half an hour, the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that the outcome of this election is going to be very close indeed.

Both the secessionists and the pro-independence parties could yet emerge with a parliamentary majority – and no one can say how coalition negotiations will go.

In his pre-election assessment of the most likely potential coalition permutations, Sam Jones sketched out three main options:

  • Another alliance between Puigdemont’s JuntsxCat, the ERC and the anti-capitalist CUP is possible but would be problematic. There are tensions between JuntsxCat and the ERC, and the CUP’s insistence on unilateral independence would be frowned on by Madrid which could again use the constitution to apply direct rule.
  • A three-way leftist coalition of Catalunya en Comú-Podem (the Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party), the ERC, and the socialist PSC. However, this would involve the ERC having to renounce its unilateral stance on independence and the PSC abandoning its support for direct rule from Madrid.
  • Ciutadans could try to build a pro-unionist government with the PSC and the conservative People’s Party of Catalonia (PPC), but the centre-right party and the socialists have been trading insults and the latter would suffer nationally for teaming up with the People’s party, which governs Spain.

Whatever happens, Sam predicted, “Comú-Podem looks set to play kingmaker in the looming rounds of horsetrading”.

Updated

Another reminder to treat this forecast with extreme caution, says Guardian Madrid correspondent Sam Jones:

“I don’t think anyone here trusts polls/exit polls any more. Many were convinced Podemos would leapfrog the social democrat PSOE party to become the second party of Spain in June 2016 election – and it never happened ...”

Early estimate suggests possible slim majority for pro-independence parties

As polls closed at 8pm local time, the Barcelona-based La Vanguardia newspaper released a forecast based on 3,200 telephone interviews suggesting the unionist Ciutadans party could be the largest in the regional parliament – but that the three main pro-independence parties could just squeeze home with the narrowest of majority. Or, they could fall just short.

The forecast is not an exit poll so should be treated with caution, however. It suggests Ciutadans could win just over a quarter of the total vote, advancing from 25 seats in the current parliament to between 34 and37.

However the pro-independence ERC, JuntsxCat and CUP are on course for between 67 and 71 seats – with an absolute parliamentary majority secured if they manage 68.

Catalan TV stations decided not to join forces to produce a more formal exit poll for this election partly because of the cost, and partly because the last time they did one – in 2015 – it turned out to be wildly inaccurate.

Updated

Miquel Iceta, leader of the Catalan Socialist party, cast his ballot this evening.

“The higher the turnout, greater the joy – for all democrats,” he said said later as he reached party HQ to await the count.

Asked if he was worried a close election result could make Catalonia ungovernable, he said he hoped not – his aim was to “translate the citizens’ will into a system of government that is as stable and progressive as possible”.

Updated

With less than half an hour to go before many polling stations close, there are still long queues outside some – even if, in this one in Barcelona, 70% had voted by 6pm. Many observers have suggested a high turnout should produce a stronger showing for pro-unionist parties.

Confused about which parties are running, what they stand for and who might team up with whom? The Guardian’s Madrid correspondent Sam Jones produced this handy list as part of his guide to the election published earlier today:

  • Junts per Catalunya (JuntsxCat, Together for Catalonia). The revamp of Catalonia for Yes, the deposed coalition government of ERC and Puigdemont’s Convergència i Unió. The new group insists Puigdemont is the only legitimate president and that the illegal 1 October referendum is the basis for an independent republic, but backs away from committing to a timescale for independence.
  • Esquerra Repúblicana Catalana (ERC, Catalan Republican Left). ERC is going it alone rather than in coalition with Puigdemont. Its leader, Oriol Junqueras, is in prison, which could give him a moral advantage over Puigdemont, who skipped the country.
  • Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC, Catalan Socialist party). The PSC upset many party members by backing Madrid over direct rule but in Miquel Iceta has a leader with strong appeal to anti-independence voters. Open to coalition but not with secessionists.
  • Partit Popular de Catalunya (PPC, Catalan People’s party). Catalan wing of Spain’s ruling, conservative People’s party. Vows to dismantle pro-independence institutions established over recent years and reform Catalan public TV and radio. Could play vital role in any anti-independence coalition.
  • Ciutadans (Citizens party). Centre-right, anti-independence party on course for about 25% of vote under leader Inés Arrimadas. Vows to heal the wounds of divided Catalan society. Won’t form government with secessionists but could end up leading left-right coalition of PP, socialists and the leftwing Catalonia in Common.
  • Catalunya en Comú (Catalonia in Common). Catalan version of the anti-austerity Podemos party. Struggling to shake off accusations of being soft on independence and establish clear identity as left alternative. May well end up as kingmaker.
  • Candidatura d’Unitat Popular (CUP, Popular Unity Candidacy). The anti-capitalist CUP, whose 10 seats gave Together for Yes a majority, regards the election as illegitimate because it was called by the Spanish government but is standing nonetheless. Refuses to countenance any road other than a unilateral declaration of independence. Current polls suggest its vote is falling.

Guardian contributing editor and former Madrid correspondent Giles Tremlett wonders whether the high turnout could favour the parties that favour Catalonia staying a part of Spain:

Carles Puigdemont, the ousted Catalan president, told reporters in Brussels – where he is evading a Spanish arrest warrant – that the election was “extraordinarily important” for the region because “from the results will come the formula to recover democracy”.

Puigdemont fled to Belgium after the Madrid government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy sacked him for pushing ahead with a unilateral independence drive. Several other members of his former cabinet were jailed on charges of sedition and rebellion.

“It’s not normal, an election that takes place with candidates in prison and candidates in exile,” Puigdemont said. He thanked an anonymous 18 year-old woman who cast a ballot paper on his behalf.

Updated

The pro-Spanish unity candidate leading some polls ahead of the election has promised to put an end to the divisions in Catalan society that she said had been opened up by the unilateral actions of the separatists.

Ines Arrimadas, who heads the Citizens party’s slate, told reporters after casting her vote in Barcelona this afternoon: “We are going to fight very hard for Catalonia to return to normalcy.”

The candidate of the pro-union socialist PSC party, Miquel Iceta, also said a “change of direction” in Catalan politics was needed “to make progress possible”.

Oriol Junquieras, leader of the pro-independence ERC party, has tweeted a letter written on 8 December from his cell in Estremera prison, Madrid.

“Prison does not weaken us,” the deposed vice president of the Catalan regional government wrote. “On the contrary. It makes us stronger.” He said he had not wanted to avoid jail because it was “the best testimony of our absolute commitment to humanism and nonviolence”.

Turnout heading for new record

Voter turnout was up by more than 5 percentage points two hours before polling stations closed, Catalan authorities have said.

The regional election board said 68.3% of Catalan voters had cast their ballots by 6pm, agains 63.12% in the previous 2015 election.

Recent polls had predicted a record turnout as feelings continue to run high both among pro-independence voters angry at Madrid’s response to the October referendum and unionists fed up with the ensuing social unrest and economic instability that have ensued.

Updated

Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Catalonia’s snap regional election, triggered in late October by the Spanish prime minister, Mariano Rajoy, as Madrid took control of the region in the wake of its illegal independence referendum and unilateral declaration of independence.

The bitterly contested vote is finely poised, with the pro-independence Catalan Republican Left party (ERC) neck-and-neck in the polls with the unionist, centre-right Ciutadans (Citizens). Its outcome will determine the next phase of the region’s long-running campaign for independence from Spain.

Neither party is expected to win a majority in the region’s 135-member chamber and a number of different coalition permutations look possible, making a hung parliament and protracted negotiations to form a new government all but inevitable – with article 155 of the Spanish constitution, which allows Madrid to maintain direct rule, in place until it is formed.

Tensions remain high in Catalonia. The deposed regional president, Carles Puigdemont, has been campaigning from Belgium after fleeing charges of rebellion, sedition and misuse of public funds, while his former number two, Oriol Junqueras, is in jail with two other prominent independence leaders.

With a record turnout expected, the outcome could hinge on the more than 20% of voters who are undecided. The Barcelona newspaper La Vanguardia will be publishing an exit poll soon after polls close at 8pm local time and confirmed results should be available fairly quickly, with around 80% of votes expected to be counted by 10.30pm.

Updated

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