Photograph: Sergio Perez/Reuters
Pro-independence parties win clear majority in Catalonia
And, with a clear result having emerged, we’ll close this liveblog. That clear result? Catalonia has handed a clear majority to parties actively seeking the region’s secession from Spain.
Nevertheless, independence remains a distant prospect. An agreement will have to be reached between the two main pro-independence parties in order to secure that absolute majority and the central government in Madrid has promised to fight tooth and nail to prevent secession.
The impact of this result on Spain’s general election, which is due to take place at the end of the year, will be interesting to see.
The Associated Press has produced a useful question and answer on the Catalan elections...
Q: How and why did the vote come about?
A: Catalonia has, for centuries, treasured its own language and culture. But, during Franco’s dictatorship, its language was banned. The recent surge in independence sentiment stems from June 2010, when Spain’s highest court struck down key parts of a charter that would have granted Catalonia more autonomy and recognised it as a nation within Spain.
Q: Who has won?
A: The pro-independence leader Artur Mas has claimed victory as separatists has won a parliamentary majority. However, opponents say pro-independence parties did not get more than 50% of the votes.
Q: What does Spain’s government think?
A: Prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s government has made it clear it will use all legal methods to prevent the independence of Catalonia, which accounts for nearly a fifth of Spain’s economic output.
Q: What’s next?
A: With both sides claiming some form of victory, moves to declare independence will be opposed. Months of negotiations are likely.
Many analysts believe the independence drive will be halted after Spain holds a general election in December and decides whether Rajoy and his Popular Party stay in power. Whoever wins, analysts say, the next government is likely to start negotiating more autonomy and fiscal powers for Catalonia.
The pro-independence parties’ celebrations are under way...
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Key point in Catalan election isn't pro-indy seats v vote %, it's that most want a referendum and Madrid will struggle to keep ignoring that
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 27, 2015
Pro-independence leader claims victory
The Guardian’s Spain correspondent Ashifa Kassam sends more from Artur Mas’ speech, in which the Catalan leader claimed victory for the pro-independence parties. She writes:
“We won,” Mas, tells a jubilant crowd at a rally in Barcelona. “Today was a double victory - the yes side won, as did democracy.” After attempts by Catalan leaders to hold a referendum on independence were blocked by the central government in Madrid, Mas turned the elections into a de facto plebiscite on the issue, pledging to begin the process of breaking away from Spain if Junts pel Sí won a majority of seats.
Mas vowed to push forward with independence, despite indications showing his party unlikely to score an absolute majority on its own. “We ask that the world recognise the victory of Catalonia and the victory of the yes,” he says. “We have an enormous force and legitimacy to push this project ahead. We will do it.”
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“Catalans have voted yes to independence,” Artur Mas tells supporters after nearly 71% of the vote is counted.
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Nardelli adds that the turnout is currently above 77% - a record high.
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With nearly three quarters of the vote counted, the pro-independence parties are still on course to win a majority of seats. Alberto Nardelli...
“Although it won’t matter in terms of parliament’s composition and the parties’ pledge to declare independence within 18 months of the vote, they look likely to win less than 50% of the vote share - and this will probably be one of the main debating points post-election.”
The Guardian’s data editor Alberto Nardelli is putting together a graphic showing the Catalonian election results as they come in - just for you.
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The Associated Press has been speaking to voters.
Jordi Perez, a 50-year-old civil servant said he voted for the pro-independence “Together for Yes” because he feels Spain has historically disparaged Catalan culture and its language.
“I have wanted independence ever since I was young. During three centuries they have robbed us of our culture. We have reached the moment that the Catalan people say ‘enough is enough’.”
School teacher Sandra Guerrero, 30, said these elections motivated her to vote for the first time for the anti-independence Citizens party.
“I feel part of Spain. I am proud to be Catalan, but also to be Spanish. I had never voted before because I was disillusioned with politics. But, this time, I have because these are important elections.”
The Guardian’s Spain correspondent Ashifa Kassam sends this dispatch from Barcelona:
The first hurdle for Catalans separatists will be to find common ground between Junts pel Sí, the coalition of parties from the right and left as well as grassroots activists, and the CUP.
“It’s not going to be easy,” said political analyst Josep Ramoneda. CUP has stated that the process of independence will only be legitimate if they win a majority of seats and votes. They have also taken aim at the idea of Artur Mas leading the transitional government, pointing to a string of corruption scandals that have plagued his party Democratic Convergence in recent years. CUP has also pushed for a more immediate break with Spain, rather than the 18-month timeline charted out by Junts pel Sí.
Any alliance with CUP may also modify the route to independence envisioned by Junts pel Sí. Mas has said the transitional government’s first step would be a declaration, made within days of taking office, proclaiming the beginning of the process to break away from Spain.
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It is worth noting that the exit polls suggest none of the secessionist parties is likely to gain an absolute majority of parliamentary seats. The leading parties would need to negotiate a settlement, should the figure be borne out in the final results.
My colleague Alberto Nardelli writes: “Based on these figures, the pro-independence parties would win a majority of seats and will also come very close to winning a majority of votes.
“This is just an exit poll though, so - as always - best treat the figures with caution and wait for official results, which should be coming in soon.”
Catalonia GAD3 exit poll: JxSí 62-65 C's 18-20 PSC 16-18 CSQEP 12-13 CUP 9-11 PP 10 UDC 2-3 Also boom. #27s2015 (via @electograph)
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 27, 2015
Just exit polls, but on those numbers pro-independence parties will not only have majority of seats, but v close to 50% vote share. #27S2015
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 27, 2015
The figures show separatist parties on course to win an absolute majority and, with it, a mandate to seek Catalan independence.
According to the poll released by local broadcaster TV3 - the largest carried out - the two largest secessionist groups “Junts pel Sí” and CUP would get between 74 and 79 of the 135 parliamentary seats between them. And they would jointly obtain 49.8% of the vote.
With a majority, they have said they would unilaterally declare independence within 18 months, something the central government in Madrid says it would block in court because the Spanish constitution does not allow it.
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Exit polls show pro-Catalan independence parties likely to win a majority
Catalonia election - TV3 exit poll: Junts pel Sí 63-66 seats Cs 19-21 PSC 14-16 CSQP 12-14 CUP 11-13 PP 9-11 UDC 0-3 Boom. #27S2015
— Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 27, 2015
#PresidentMas exercises his right to vote in the #27S2015 elections at his local polling station pic.twitter.com/GUatbq4uSz
— Catalan Government (@catalangov) September 27, 2015
Here is Artur Mas casting that aforementioned vote.
The Guardian’s data editor Alberto Nardelli on the potential effect of a high turnout on the final results: “It’s difficult to say who will benefit because it will all depend on how the vote is distributed. But what is clear is that, come tonight, we should get a clear idea of where Catalans stand on the issue of independence.”
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He volat 17.000km des d'Austràlia per poder votar, #VotaPerMi @assemblea @fiec @catalanassembly @tv3cat @diariARA pic.twitter.com/7VvZY3ZS0W
— ANC - Austràlia (@ANC_Australia) September 27, 2015
My colleague Ashifa Kassam reports that Ramon Querol Bonet was one who travelled a great distance to cast his vote. “I flew 17,000 km from Australia to vote,” reads his tweet.
On his Facebook page, he added: “17,000 km to be able to vote. It’s a dream come true. For all the Catalans outside of Catalonia who weren’t allowed to vote, this one is for you. Long live a free Catalonia.”
According to regional authorities, the number of votes by post jumped by 56% as compared to the 2012 elections, despite the fact that Catalans living in US, Mexico, Chile and parts of China weren’t able to take part in the elections because their ballot papers didn’t arrive on time.
“Today is a great win for democracy in Catalonia. We have surpassed all the obstacles placed by the Spanish government. Now, Catalonia faces its own destiny,” Catalonia’s regional leader Artur Mas said after casting his vote.
There are 135 seats being contested. The opinion polls put the main secessionist group “Junts Pel Sí” (Together for Yes) and the leftist party CUP on course to win a majority of seats, although they were likely to fall short of 50% of the vote.
By early evening on Sunday, more than 63% of those eligible to vote had cast their ballots. That was close to 7% more than in the previous regional election, the government said. As previously noted, that high turnout could be the factor that tips the balance away from an pro-independence win.
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With separatist parties expected to win a majority, it has been predicted that a high turnout could yet turn the result. And the turnout is on course to be the highest on record since the end of the Franco dictatorship in the 1970s, according to reports. You can read more about that in this piece by my colleague Ashifa Kassam.
Ashifa has also provided this detailed piece, which gives a great deal of background as we wait the exit polls.
In theory, this is a local election like any other. But the outcome will determine whether the authorities in Catalonia have a mandate to push for the region’s independence from Spain. Should the leading separatist parties win control of the Catalonian parliament, as opinion polls have suggested they are likely to do, each has said that that push would come within 18 months. Spain’s central government, however, has dismissed the possibility of Catalan independence as a “nonsense”.
Exit polls are expected as early as 6pm GMT, but may come later. You can follow that - and the full results - here, as well as regular updates from Guardian staff.
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