Amid a so-far relatively predictably general election campaign, a minor if nonetheless eye-opening surprise could be brewing on the Isle of Wight.
The island’s parliamentary constituency is being targeted by the Greens, even though there was a 13,703 Conservative majority in 2015.
“I just think it’s a brave person now who makes predictions about what is and isn’t possible in this election,” Lucas says before posing for a promotional photo with the party’s newly-elected local councillor, and activists at a local community centre. “I just know from my time on the island that there is such an upswell of people who want to have a progressive MP.”
The bullishness is based on several factors, not least last week’s local polls, which saw the Greens win more votes than Labour or the Liberal Democrats on the Isle of Wight.
There is also the fact that the Green candidate, Vix Lowthion, a local secondary school history teacher, is the only candidate remaining from the 2015 election, after the sudden political demise of the Conservative MP, Andrew Turner.
That happened just over a week ago when Turner, chatting to a sixth form politics class, was asked if he would take part in the island’s inaugural LGBT pride event this summer. No, the MP replied; he thought homosexuality was “wrong” and “dangerous to society”.
One of the students, Esther Poucher, posted about her shock at his comments on Facebook, the local radio station picked up the story and Turner stepped down that afternoon.
Among Lucas’s engagements on the island was to meet Poucher and some of her classmates. “I was shocked he said that, especially in a school. You don’t expect it,” Poucher told the Guardian before meeting Lucas. “I don’t think he realised he’d said something shocking until I walked out of the room.”
She said she was surprised by the repercussions of her post: “I wouldn’t wish that on anyone, if it’s something he loves to do. It’s not a positive way to end anything. But I do think it was best for him to go.”
Lucas argues that the circumstance of Turner’s demise has renewed focus on how the Isle of Wight is a more diverse place than often portrayed, both socially and economically, with the monied plenty of the annual Cowes Week yachting event contrasting with significant poverty in nearby towns.
Before heading outdoors to pose with activists in the unseasonal May chill outside the community centre, Lucas accused the Conservatives of showing “an extraordinary complacency” in a seat Turner held since 2001.
“I think there’s an appetite for a change. Yes, if you look at the bare figures it will take a big swing, but nevertheless I do feel people on the island are at the end of their tether and the concerns of the island are not being heard.”
The other factor pointing towards a possible upset is the way the island’s people appear happy to make tactical choices in casting their vote.
Lowthion points to the change in the Greens’ fortunes between the 2010 and 2015 elections, where they went from 900 votes to 9,500, despite having not enough resources in 2015 to even do any canvassing, in a result that catapulted them above Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Lowthian says that even without any formal deal for other candidates to stand down, she could clinch the seat. “People here tend to vote tactically,” she says. “I’m not asking the other parties to stand down; I’m appealing to the voters to choose which they think is the strongest candidate.”
The sudden evaporation of the Ukip vote, which went from 14,000 at the 2015 election to 900 in last week’s local polls, has provided Lowthion with hope.
“Voters move around a lot on the island with who they support,” she says. “It’s a small island. We all talk to each other. They pay attention to local papers. And they’ll make the decision.”
- This article was amended on 9 May 2017, to clarify that the Green party holds one seat on the local council.
