CHARLOTTE, N.C. _ The first "squally" rain bands of Hurricane Florence _ now a category 2 hurricane _ rolled across coastal North Carolina shortly after 6 a.m. Thursday, as predictions say the storm looks increasingly likely to hover over eastern South Carolina with the southern part of North Carolina in the storm's bull's eye.
FEMA said Thursday morning that the storm remains 170 miles southeast of Wilmington and it will not make landfall for at least 36 hours, meaning the worst may not happen until Friday afternoon or early Saturday.
The first of the rain and wind gusts rolled ashore just before dawn Thursday at Morehead City, a Carteret County town that is expected to get 20 to 30 inches of rain in the next three days. The Weather Channel is reporting waves have already breached dunes along some parts of the Outer Banks, something experts predicted would add to rapid storm surge flooding.
The National Hurricane Center believes the center of Florence _ now 300 miles wide _ will move over southern North Carolina later today, but is expected to make "a slow motion over eastern South Carolina" Friday night through Saturday.
FEMA used the word "disaster" in describing the storm Thursday, explaining "we call them disasters because they break things." The winds and rain will wreak havoc with the state's infrastructure, FEMA says, including knocking out power and displacing people for days.
In coming hours, the storm will "pile up water" along the coast and bring a "tremendous amount of inland flooding," officials said Thursday. The storm could also bring "40 inches or more" of rain to some parts of the state, the National Hurricane Center said Thursday.
"Florence is a tremendously large hurricane," said officials with the National Hurricane Center. "Hurricane-force winds (74-95 mph) extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds (39 to 73 mph) extend outward up to 195 miles."
The National Hurricane Center said Thursday morning that the storm is 170 miles from Wilmington, North Carolina, with sustained winds of 110 mph. That puts it at the top end of category 2. A category 3 hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Moving at 12 mph,outer bands of rain from Hurricane Florence were already approaching the coast of North Carolina early Thursday, promising "life-threatening storm surge and rainfall," said the National Hurricane Center.
A NOAA buoy 80 miles southwest of the storm's center recorded gusts in the 64 mph range, and sustained winds of 52 mph, reported the National Hurricane Center.
The majority of both North and South Carolina are within the "cone of uncertainty" in the latest path, according to the NHC.
Among the most devastating scenarios, as reported by the Weather Channel: The storm could stall off the North Carolina coast, creating lingering storm surge and rain, then move slowly south before going inland around Charleston, dumping even more rain as it rolls northwest back toward western North Carolina.
Florence's major impacts are expected to be storm surge on the coast and torrential rain and "unprecedented" flooding inland, the NHC said. There was also concern that the slow-moving storm could stall over the Carolinas, dumping rain for days.
"If it gets close to the coast and just hits the coast or is just slightly inland, but then just sits there, it's like pressing pause at the most violent part of the landfall," said Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, according to The Washington Post.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
Storm-surge warning: South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina and Albemarle and Pamlico sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico rivers as of 2 a.m. Wednesday, the NHC said.
Storm-surge watch: Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South Santee River, South Carolina and North of Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.
Hurricane warning: South Santee River South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina and Albemarle and Pamlico sounds.
Hurricane watch: Edisto Beach, South Carolina to South Santee River, South Carolina and North of Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border.
Tropical Storm watch: North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia and Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.
STORM SURGE
Storm surge is also expected to produce "life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations," says the National Hurricane Center.
The ocean is moving inland ahead of Florence as storm surge begins to flood the Carolinas coast, according to the NHC.
The water could reach as high as 9 to 13 feet "from Cape Fear to Cape Lookout, including the Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo and Bay Rivers."
From North Myrtle Beach to Cape Fear, and Cape Lookout to the Ocracoke Inlet, water could rise 6 to 9 feet.
From the Ocracoke Inlet to the North Carolina-Virginia border and from the South Santee River to North Myrtle Beach, the NHC forecast that water could rise as high as 6 feet.
Water could reach as high as 4 feet from Edisto Beach to the South Santee River.
"The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves," the NHC said.
RAIN
"Heavy and excessive rainfall" of 20 to 30 inches is predicted along coastal North Carolina, with isolated spots of 40 inches. The Appalachians could see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated areas of 12 inches.
In South Carolina, 10 inches is expected, with isolated areas of 20 inches, says the National Hurricane Center.
"This rainfall would produce catastrophic flash flooding and significant river flooding."
