Everton head into the weekend just four points off the Champions League spots and with a game in hand on Thomas Tuchel's Chelsea, with their league position somewhat higher than what the underlying numbers suggest it should be.
Clearly, there is more to football than metrics, shot differentials and maths, but the reason for Everton's overperformance this season is clear: Carlo Ancelotti.
"After the Everton win over West Brom, the Everton Twitter account tweeted 'a win is a win is a win'," said Josh Williams on the Analysing Everton podcast.
"That is absolutely true but if you win like that - the expected goals were 1.1 to West Brom's 1.0, so virtually nothing between them - you are relying on being on the right side of a coin flip.
"Everton have been landing on the right side recently but there are not that many games left for them to keep doing it - there are only 10 games left!
"If they keep doing it, they can then reassess in the summer in terms of the performances when they get better players in.
"At the minute, I see a team that are not winning as often as they are - that is what the numbers say."
"In terms of goal difference, Everton are 10th with plus four," David Hughes explained.
"That is an improvement on where they finished last season, but obviously it is still mid-table ranking.
"In terms of shots attempted, they rank 17th. In terms of on target, they rank 11th, shots faced 13th and shots on target faced 12th.
Listen to the full Analysing Everton podcast by clicking HERE
"In terms of shots attempted, they rank 17th. In terms of on target, they rank 11th, shots faced 13th and shots on target faced 12th.
"A lot of people might think those numbers have some value to them and there might be some who are quite dismissive.
"But look at, for example, shots on target faced. The teams who have faced the fewest are Manchester City, Chelsea, Brighton, West Ham, Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves, Liverpool, Arsenal.
"Of that group, there is only Brighton who you would deem an outlier. These metrics are quite similar to the league table.
"So for them to be in the position that they are, it is brilliant, but there is some justification for some nervousness and red flags."
Everton have been out-shot in 15 straight Premier League matches and while the results have not been impacted, over a longer period of time, the pattern could change.
Generally speaking, the underlying numbers tend to catch up with results in the long-run - though Ancelotti's tactics mean that will not necessarily be the case as much as might have been at other clubs.
"It is not beyond the realms of possibility [that the results could continue to defy the underlying numbers] because clearly it is happening now," Hughes added.
"Everton have been on the right side of the coin toss quite frequently but there are factors that influence that, like scoring first.
"When they score first, Ancelotti tends to adopt an approach which is to protect rather than build on the lead.
"Everton have took the lead in 15 Premier League matches - and by that, I mean scored the first goal - and have won 13 of them, losing one and drawing the other.
"But the flip side is when they concede first, which has happened on 12 occasions, they have gone on to lose eight times.
"That can have an impact on the underlying numbers because if you score first, you adopt a defensive approach, and therefore concede more shots."
So while on the face of it, the underlying numbers might be cause for concern, as long as Everton can maintain their narrow wins for the remainder of the season, then add more quality to the squad in the summer, under Ancelotti, it might just be sustainable.
