The Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs matchup doesn’t exactly feel like a 50-50 fight. But it also doesn’t feel too off of that pick ‘em mark either. Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs) is a fantastic fighter, and the fact he prospered during two grueling fights with Gennady Golovkin, picking up a disputed draw and a controversial victory, solidified him as one of the top-five fighters in the world.
Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs) isn’t too far behind him either.
But the Canelo vs. Jacobs odds don’t reflect that. As of this writing, Alvarez is a -500 favorite, meaning you’d have to wager $500 to win $100. Jacobs, meanwhile, is a +350 underdog, which means you’d earn a $350 payday if you wagered $100.
In my mind, it should be somewhere around Alvarez at -260 and Jacobs at +200—when the initial odds were first released, it was Alvarez at -285 and Daniel Jacobs at +225, so clearly, bettors have been backing Alvarez. It’ll be interesting to see if fellow fighters are also metaphorically putting their money on Alvarez as well.
“I think it’s very hard to predict,” middleweight star Gennady Golovkin, who certainly has a stake in the outcome, told reporters. “It’s definitely going to be a very important fight for middleweight, it’s going to be a very important fight for boxing in general. It’s hard to say. I think it’s going to be pretty even keel.”
That said, here are some predictions from those fighters and experts who know these boxers better than most anybody else.
Canelo vs. Jacobs predictions
Badou Jack: Coming off a draw with Adonis Stevenson and a loss to Marcus Browne, Jack—formerly one of the top fighters at super middleweight—doesn’t have a problem admitting that he’s rooting for Jacobs to beat Alvarez. But he just can’t figure out a way to pick Jacobs to actually win, especially because of the storyline that Alvarez simply doesn’t lose judges’ decisions when fighting in Las Vegas. “It’s a good fight; it’s a 50-50 fight,” Jack told the Mayweather Boxing Channel on YouTube. “Canelo has been looking really good his last couple of fights. … Um, I like Danny Jacobs. I root for him. But … umm … if it goes to the scorecards, I can’t see Canelo losing. Especially not in Vegas.”
Andre Ward: Once the top pound for pound fighter in the world who now does solid commentary for ESPN, Ward said it’s all a mental game for Jacobs, who Ward predicted will pull off the upset. “Danny has to come in there with his mind made up, that he’s not OK with losing a close decision,” Ward said, via FightHype.com. “He has to make up his mind that ‘I’m going to walk through fire to get what I’m trying to get and I’m not leaving here without it.’ If he has that mindset, he’s going to be a hard man to beat.”
Abel Sanchez: The respected trainer has had to face the Alvarez team twice as the former coach of Golovkin (the breakup between Golovkin and Sanchez last week was awfully acrimonious). He also saw up close how Golovkin narrowly beat Jacobs in 2017. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Sanchez is picking Alvarez. “Yes, better skills, speed,” Sanchez told Bad Left Hook. “It will be close for seven to eight rounds. Then Canelo takes the last part of fight.”
Timothy Bradley: Like Ward, Bradley—a former two-division titlist—has been an impressive analyst for ESPN in his post-retirement life. Unlike Ward, Bradley thinks Alvarez will win. “At the highest level, what separates good fighters from great ones is supreme concentration,” Bradley said, via ESPN.com. “[Floyd] Mayweather has it, Andre Ward has it, Terence Crawford, Errol Spence Jr. included. I love Jacobs but this will be his downfall against Alvarez. Defensive lapses will allow Alvarez to connect. Late stoppage or 12-round decision for Canelo.”
Austin Trout: In 2013, the then-undefeated Trout, coming off a glorious win vs. Miguel Cotto, fought Alvarez and lost by unanimous decision. But he’s picking Jacobs, a friend, to win the bout. He’s also a little trepidatious about that prediction. “Danny Jacobs is my boy. I’m always rocking with him,” Trout told the Mayweather Boxing Channel. “Now, Canelo is a beast. He’s gotten tremendously better since the first GGG fight. If you asked me about Jacobs-Canelo right after the first GGG fight, it’s Jacobs easy. I thought Jacobs beat GGG. Now it’s not so 100%. Jacobs can punch. He’s got a lot of skills, he’s got good head movement, he can box. H’s got a full arsenal. I’m rocking with Danny, but it’s going to be much harder than it was six or eight months ago.”
Robert Garcia: It doesn’t seem that many people are picking an outright knockout win for Alvarez. But Garcia, the respected trainer, is willing to say it. “Jacobs can box. Jacobs is a really good fighter. Jacobs is the real deal,” Garcia told EsNews. “It’s probably a 60-40 fight, 55-45 [in favor of Alvarez]. … I’m going to say Canelo knocks him out.”
This article will be updated throughout the week.
