ACT fires kept in check but dangerous fire conditions loom
Let’s do a quick recap of what we know.
- Despite weather in the mid 30s, benign wind conditions on Wednesday mean the ACT Emergency Services Agency has been able to downgrade the Orroral Valley fire from watch and act to an advice level bushfire warning.
- The blaze began on Monday when a defence helicopter landed in the Namadgi national park, south of Canberra, and accidentally sparked what authorities have called the city’s “most serious” bushfire threat since the city’s devastating 2003 fires.
- Tuesday saw dramatic images of the fire approaching Canberra’s southern suburbs, but conditions eased throughout the evening and the fire was downgraded from emergency level to watch and act just before midnight.
- The fire has now burned through 10,492ha, and earlier the ESA’s incident controller, Matthew Shonk, warned conditions are expected to deteriorate in coming days.
- Friday and Saturday are expected to be especially challenging, with temperatures due to reach 42C and westerly and north-westerly winds increasing.
- Dangerous weather conditions will hit much of the east and south-east of Australia. In the coming days temperatures are expected to exceed 40C in Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne, while some places – such as Cummins in South Australia, Echuca in northern Victoria, and Griffith in inland NSW – are expected to reach 45C.
- ACT emergency service personnel, police and defence force members are door-knocking residents in the southern Canberra suburbs of Banks, Gordon and Conder to remind them about the importance of having a bushfire survival plan.
Updated
Good news. The ACT Emergency Services Agency has downgraded the Orroral Valley fire from watch and act to an advice level.
It says there is now limited activity on the eastern edge of the fire, although there is an increase in fire activity on the western side of the fire.
Active fire remains on the northern side of the fireground. The fire remains out of control.
“Firefighters are on scene patrolling, preparing for property protection and strengthening containment lines,” the ESA says.
“The ACT’s specialist intelligence gathering helicopter is conducting aerial surveillance. People in the area may be affected by smoke, which could reduce visibility and air quality.”
Updated
I’ll leave Morrison there because he moves on to emissions reductions and then, of course, questions about the controversial sports grants program overseen by Bridget McKenzie.
Morrison:
As the years pass, though, we note that the bush grows back and fuel loads increase and people move in in still larger numbers to live in fire-prone areas and dangerous fires occur again in a cycle which we must break.
We must continue to [learn] from this fire season so we are better prepared for the next one because, of course, there’ll be one.
Whether that be the deployment of the defence forces, local hazard reduction, access to resources such as aerial firefighting equipment, consistency of disaster recovery arrangements or resilience in the face of a changing climate. And we must learn, as I discussed only last week, from the Indigenous Australians and their ancient practices and how to improve our resilience to these threats.
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Morrison points to the use of Australian defence force reservists as evidence the government has responded to the crisis, but says before the next bushfire season he will look at legislative changes including giving the commonwealth the power to declare a national state of emergency.
He also flags changes to the “legal interface” between the commonwealth and states and territories on responsibilities when it comes to preparing for and responding to natural disasters and emergencies on a national scale.
Morrison also flags “an enhancement of a national accountability framework for natural disaster risk management, resilience and preparedness”.
“This should include the setting of targeting and transparent reporting on key actions with enhanced national standards where necessary,” he says.
“We’ve got to be comparing apples with apples.”
Updated
He says that before the events of this summer the role of the commonwealth in responding to natural disasters “has been limited to responding to requests for assistance for state governments”.
“The scale of the bushfires this season, not least their simultaneous reach across many borders, has demonstrated to me the limits of these arrangements,” he says.
Updated
PM says we must prepare for future disasters
Morrison says the events of this summer have “reminded us that our national security is also about our preparedness, responsiveness and resilience to the natural disasters and the environment we will live in – today, over the next decade, and well beyond”.
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Morrison says that “amidst this devastation” it has been “humbling to see Australia as its best”.
In recounting the stories of their selflessness as I did on Australia Day, my message was very simple: this is the greatness of Australia. This is the strength of Australia. This is why, as a people, we always overcome and prevail. Australia is strong, but we must become even stronger.
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The prime minister, Scott Morrison, begins his National Press Club address by acknowledging the families who have lost loved ones throughout the bushfire season.
Your sorrow hangs heavy on our nation’s heart and that heart is extended also to all of those who now face the daunting task of rebuilding homes, livelihoods, businesses, and local communities.
“We’ll be with you for the long haul. Many Australians, as well as our loyal friends from overseas who are standing here with us, remain on those frontlines today at some 75 or so fires burning around the country.
“Our brave firefighters, our emergency service workers, our volunteers, our soldiers, our reservists ... our mental health specialists, local community leaders, public servants as well as the networks of civil society are engaged in all manner of very practical, helpful, loving tasks from delivering food to rescuing and supporting recovering wildlife.”
Updated
It’s not just the ACT that will see dangerous fire conditions increase as we get closer to the weekend. In the coming days temperatures are expected to exceed 40C in Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne, while some places, such as Cummins in South Australia, Echuca in northern Victoria and Griffith in inland NSW, are expected to reach 45C.
BOM meteorologist Diana Eadie told AAP on Wednesday that a hot air mass causing scorching temperatures across large parts of Western Australia will move across the country along with an increase in humidity.
“As a result we’re expecting severe to extreme heatwave conditions to develop across much of the south-east of Australia,” she said.
Eadie said many areas would experience uncomfortable overnight temperatures, including Adelaide where it would not drop below 28C on Friday.
“That’s why we’re seeing those severe to extreme heatwave conditions because when you don’t get those temperatures dropping off overnight, it doesn’t allow the body to recover.”
Eadie said the heatwave would bring elevated fire dangers, peaking on Thursday in South Australia, Friday in Victoria and Tasmania, and Saturday in fire-affected areas including the ACT and southern parts of NSW.
“Whilst we’ll see those warm temperatures and strengthening winds, it’s not as dry as what we’ve seen with previous events, which is why at this stage we’re only forecasting severe fire dangers,” she said.
“It’s not quite as dangerous as previous situations ... because we do have that moisture over fire-affected areas.”
Updated
#Smoke from fires in the #ACT and southern #NSW is seen here streaming into the Tasman Sea. Heatwave conditions will raise fire dangers in coming days, heat peaking Saturday. For the latest fire info #NSWRFS: https://t.co/wmduYxNR14 Latest forecast: https://t.co/3oIJQcpTAM pic.twitter.com/gjIqBDEGgI
— Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) January 29, 2020
Fears of being scammed
Some Australians are ignoring potentially life saving emergency alerts during disasters because they fear they are being scammed, says Queensland University of Technology associate professor Amisha Mehta.
Mehta has told AAP that emergency alerts with a link to a website are often mistaken as a scam or computer virus by younger and older people.
It is the latest challenge facing emergency authorities during times of natural disasters, Mehta says.
Updated
Remember when the ACT was hit by a vicious hailstorm... last week.
It was a long & challenging time for @ACT_SES crews who were inundated with 2,200+ calls for assistance following the hail storm last week. With some added help from @NSWSES crews, the weekend saw the long list of jobs tick down to ‘0’. A pleasing sight for sore eyes!! pic.twitter.com/mzvkY7IZZx
— ACT ESA (@ACT_ESA) January 29, 2020
I’ve just spoken to Abrar Shabren, a forecaster from the Bureau of Meteorology, who has given me a rundown on the weather fire crews in the ACT will face in the coming days.
While the temperature will rise quite steeply as this afternoon goes on, with a forecast high of 36C, quite benign easterly and south-easterly winds are expected to keep things in check.
However, conditions are expected to begin deteriorating from tomorrow until Sunday. Temperatures are expected to rise to 39C on Thursday before hitting 42C on Friday and Saturday, driven by increasing westerly winds.
“Around midmorning to midday on Friday the winds will start becoming north-westerly and that’s when that hot surge comes in,” he sais.
“In the beginning those winds will be light, between 10 and 15km/h then 15 to 20km/h, so not the strong winds we’ve seen in previous weeks with those high pressure systems bringing in quite strong winds.
“But on Saturday we will see that wind increasing on the fire grounds, so dry, hot and strong winds probably about 30, 40 and 50km/h. In the elevated areas and high peaks the wind gusts will be a bit stronger than that.
“That will drop off in the evening on Saturday and then through to Sunday winds become easterly and quite light.”
Updated
Looks like the bulk of Scott Morrison’s press conference will be about the unfolding coronavirus but he begins by calling the fires in Canberra “a reminder again that we’re a long way from the end of this bushfire season”.
Updated
Orroral Valley fire has burnt through 10,079ha
The Orroral Valley fire in the ACT has now burnt through 10,079 hectares.
WATCH & ACT - ORRORAL VALLEY FIRE - 29 January 2020, 11:30am https://t.co/QCox66vFPW pic.twitter.com/K6OYQqySBf
— ACT ESA (@ACT_ESA) January 29, 2020
Updated
The prime minister, Scott Morrison, is about to give a press conference in Canberra. I’ll let you know if he touches on plans to expand the powers of the commonwealth to respond to national emergencies, which is expected to be a key focus of his National Press Club address today.
Updated
Moving briefly to South Australia, AAP reports that authorities are bracing for a day of severe fire danger with special work to be conducted on the Kangaroo Island fire ground.
Earthmoving equipment, water tankers and extra fire crews are being sent to strategic locations ahead of a day of high bushfire risk.
The blaze is officially contained but the Country Fire Service says crews are still finding hotspots in various areas including Blue Gum Hills, Cygnet River and Vivonne Bay.
The bushfire risk on Thursday is expected to be severe with a total fire ban to be put in place as temperatures soar.
Adelaide is forecast to have a top of 42C with the mercury going even higher in some regional centres.
The fire has already burned through more 210,000ha and destroyed more than 50 homes along with hundreds of other buildings, crops, livestock, wildlife and infrastructure including many kilometres of fencing.
It also claimed two lives. Father and son Dick and Clayton Lang were killed when their car became engulfed in flames.
Updated
From Tuesday night. A lot of ACT residents are comparing this fire to the devastating 2003 blaze.
Where we're at ...
Just a reminder of where we’re at. On Monday, a defence helicopter landed in the Namadgi national park, south of Canberra, and accidentally sparked what authorities have called the city’s “most serious” bushfire threat since the city’s devastating 2003 fires.
Tuesday saw dramatic images of the fire approaching Canberra’s southern suburbs, but conditions eased throughout the evening and the fire was downgraded from emergency level to watch and act just before midnight.
The fire remains active though and is travelling in a north-east and easterly direction towards the communities of Mount Tennant, Tharwa Village, Boboyan Road and Top Naas Road.
The ACT Emergency Services Agency says residents in those areas need to “remain vigilant”. If you do not need to be in the area, “it is still best for your safety to not enter or return”.
Residents in the southern Canberra suburbs of Banks, Gordon, Conder, Calwell and Theodore should also continue to monitor conditions.
While milder conditions today are helping fire authorities the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting extremely high temperatures and low humidity that will prove challenging.
Temperatures today are still tipped to reach 36C though before rising to 39C on Thursday. On Friday the mercury will increase to at top 42C.
It will be 42C again on Saturday, before showers and possible storm pass through on Sunday, with a top temperature of 35C.
Updated
As Luke has written, fire crews are making the most of today’s milder conditions before the expected temperature rise tomorrow and on Saturday.
Today ACT emergency service personnel, police and defence force members are door knocking in the southern Canberra suburbs of Banks, Gordon and Conder.
It’s not an evacuation – no evacuation warnings have been issued for those suburbs – but the ACT Emergency Services Agency says they’ll be there to “answer any questions and to help ensure residents have a bushfire survival plan”.
Updated
That’s all from me for now. My colleague Michael McGowan will be taking over for a while. And a reminder that Scott Morrison will be addressing the National Press Club this afternoon.
Updated
Challenging times ahead
The ABC has reported some comments from the ACT Emergency Services Agency’s incident controller, Matthew Shonk, who says authorities do not expect the fire to return to emergency level today.
But Shonk says the fire is not going to be put out today or tomorrow and that conditions will worsen in coming days.
“We can’t sugarcoat that in any way,” he said.
“The conditions that we saw yesterday could well pop up again.
“There’s challenging times coming up; we’re not going to get this fire out today and not tomorrow. This is a campaign fire and we’ll be working for some time.”
The fire is about 8km south of Banks, the most southern suburb in Canberra. Fire crews are hoping to make the most of today’s milder conditions.
Updated
The size of the fire is 10,079ha, according to the latest update from the ACT Emergency Services Agency.
Updated
Whelan on what she called “disaster tourism”.
“We’d had a number of reports from residents in the southern suburbs of the significant amount traffic coming into the southern suburbs last evening,” she said.
“It would appear we have a number of people who are coming into the suburbs to check out the fire, to take photographs, to undertake what I’m calling disaster tourism.
“Please refrain from doing this.”
Authorities urge against 'disaster tourism'
We are seeing some amazing photographs of the Canberra fire. Many of these photographs will have come from safe vantage points or from a person’s own property.
However, the ACT’s emergency services agency commissioner, Georgeina Whelan, is asking people not to engage in “disaster tourism” by heading to head to Canberra’s southern suburbs an Instagram shot.
ACT ESA Commissioner update on #orroralvalleyfire, notes "disaster tourism" i.e. people heading 2 #Canberra southern suburbs to take photos. "Taking a great photo for Instagram is not worth your life. It is not worth slowing down my staff, who are working to keep Canberra safe." pic.twitter.com/0gMOrDO6ln
— Emma Groves (@EmGrovesy) January 28, 2020
Last night the fires sat to the south of the station. Although pretty impressive, the station is not under threat. Matt who was looking after the station last night took the pictures. pic.twitter.com/ZgQg1o81r5
— Richard Stephenson (@nascom1) January 28, 2020
Scott Morrison will address the National Press Club today – and excerpts of his speech indicate a key theme will be expanding the powers of the commonwealth to respond to national emergencies.
First, Morrison describes the problem as he sees it:
“To date, the role of the Commonwealth in responding to natural disasters has been limited to responding to requests for assistance from state governments. They judge the time and form of support needed.
The scale of the bushfires this season – not least their simultaneous reach across state borders – has unequivocally demonstrated the limits of those arrangements.”
And then, the solution:
“I believe, however, there is now a clear community expectation that the Commonwealth should have the ability to respond in times of national emergencies and disasters, particularly through deployment of our defence forces in circumstances where the life and property of Australians have been assessed to be under threat.
... I therefore flag the following as issues to be considered in the wake of recent events, namely:
- The constitutional and legal framework that would allow the Commonwealth to declare a national state of emergency - with clear authorities and appropriate safeguards for Commonwealth action on its own initiative, including the deployment of our defence force;
- The legal interface with the states and territories on responsibilities when it comes to preparation for, and response to, natural disasters and emergencies of national scale;
- An enhanced national accountability for natural disaster risk management, resilience and preparedness. This should include the setting of targets and transparent reporting on key actions, with enhanced national standards where necessary.”
Morrison will also give a bit more detail on his proposal for a royal commission into the bushfires, explaining its first take will be to “audit the implementation of previous [inquiries’] recommendations, drawing on work that has already been done in this area”.
Updated
This is some incredible footage from Martin Ollman, a photographer in Canberra.
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires pic.twitter.com/akBjC8AIof
— Martin Ollman (@martin_o) January 28, 2020
The weather over the coming days is expected to be very dry and hot in Canberra, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
Wednesday is tipped to reach 36C, with the city shrouded in a smoke haze. Thursday will hit 39C, with more smoky conditions, while Friday the mercury will increase to at top 42C.
It will be 42C again on Saturday, before showers and possible storm pass through on Sunday, with a top temperature of 35C.
The current watch and act alert for the Orroral Valley fire warns residents in Tharwa Village, Boboyan Road, Apollo Road, and Top Naas Road to remain vigilant.
“Monitor conditions and know what you will do if the fire threatens,” the ACT Emergency Services Agency says. “If you do not need to be in this area, it is still best for your safety to not enter or return.”
The agency says residents in Banks, Gordon, Condor, Calwell and Theodore should continue to monitor conditions.
But it notes that no properties are under threat at this time.
Updated
Yesterday, a fire started by a defence helicopter which landed in the Namadgi national park, south of Canberra, sparked what authorities called the city’s “most serious” bushfire threat since the city’s devastating 2003 fires.
The Orroral Valley fire has burnt through 9,500 hectares and is expected to grow, although it is now at a watch and act level. Moderate conditions overnight allowed firefighters at the scene to strengthen containment lines.
Updated
Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the bushfires threatening Canberra today. I’m Luke Henriques-Gomes.
