And, we’re done.
The immediate winner tonight is Elizabeth May. But the strategic victor is Tom Mulcair’s NDP.
Under attack from the other three parties, Harper withered. But while May rose to fill the room, and Mulcair’s calm demeanor gave him the last word over and over again, Trudeau failed to hit the near-impossible moving target he had to hit to put his party back in contention.
Trudeau’s speech is themed around being “ready.”
“Mr. Harper wants you to believe that better just isn’t possible. But I think thats wong. We are who we are and Canada is what Canada is, because we’ve always known that better is possible.”
I don’t know what that means.
"Get to know us. We are not what you think." Elizabeth May's Green Party pitch. #macdebate
— Natalie Alcoba (@nataliealcoba) August 7, 2015
May thanks organisers for the opportunity to speak to the nation. She may not face the other candidates in any other debate, she says - which is true.
Though after her performance this evening she well experience a bit of a bump in the polls.
Mulcair next. Thanks organisers and viewers. “In this election there is a clear choice,” he says. “Mr. Harper has the worst jobs record since the second world war. Run up eight deficits in a row and added 50bn to Canada’s debt. Sorry. Mr Harper’s plan clearly isn’t working.”
“Clearly isn’t working” was another bingo card phrase. If you had that, you are also a winner.
“Proven experience,” is Harper’s opening gambit. Points to market turmoil in China, debt crisis in Europe. Trying to say he’s a safe pair of hands. But he looks, and sounds, rattled.
Closing remarks now.
Or this one:
The loudest cheers of the evening go to Mulcair's statement that he'd repeal c-51 #macdebate
— Peter Cowan (@PeterCBC) August 7, 2015
May’s line of the night - probably the line of the night overall - is on C51. “It’s a disaster.”
“This is an issue that people are quite rightly worked up about,” says Trudeau, pretty lamely
Harper is rattled. “If you are not prepared to call the threat the ... thing that it is, you are not prepared to defend this country.” Then May hits him again. She’s relentless, with a machine-gun delivery.
In almost so many words, Mulcair calls Harper - essentially - an Islamophobe, for targeting mosques.
And, having done the hard work, May leaves the cleanup to Mulcair. The NDP “Will repeal C51,” he says, looking straight into the camera.
The first real attack on C51 comes from May.
There is no oversight. There is no oversight at all. This act ... Makes. Us. Less. Safe.”
“I’ll let Mr. Trudeau explain his own position; he’s been for and against the legislation at the same time,” says Harper dismissively.
Final round of questioning for Trudeau finally gets to C51, the deeply unpopular counter-terror bill that his party supported.
This was always going to be a tough moment for Trudeau. He’s fudging - he’s clearly fudging - talking about amendments; being constructive. “Perhaps it was naive,” he says.
It’s about as well as he can do under the circumstances. But it’s still not a winning moment for the Liberal leader.
Scorecard so far, as we head into the final round of questions:
Harper 2/10
Mulcair 7/10
May 8/10
Trudeau 4/10
Suddenly, for the first time, May of the Green party sounds like she might be on the same hawkish side as Harper. “Assad is a butcher,” she says.
However, she says, ISIS is trying “to draw us into the region.”
“We are actually doing what they want when we go in with bombing missions.”
Harper accuses Trudeau of trying to “slag the military.”
More from Maxwell Cameron of UBC’s political science department.
The attack by Trudeau on Mulcair regarding the clarity act is all about trying to drive a wedge between the NDP and the Quebec federalists voter. It is an important part of this debate.
“Unfortunately, Mr. Harper hasn’t seen a war he hasn’t wanted to get involved in,” says Trudeau.
“Well, I... I don’t think this government has got involved in many military engagements,” Harper almost-stammers. Pivots quickly to the threat of ISIS. “It would be foolish not to go after this group before they go after us.”
Stephen Harper is rocking a deep left lean right now. V chill. #macdebate
— Katie Underwood (@katieunderwrite) August 7, 2015
Straight out of the David Cameron playbook. Very much UK-led in influence, this debate. Little drawn from Canada’s immediate neighbour to the south so far in terms of tics or tactics.
First question to Tom Mulcair. “Would the NDP ever send troops into combat?”
“Yes,” he says. “We’ve shown that willingness in the case of Libya. Then we withdrew that when they changed the mission.”
“But before I would ever sent in their brave men and women, I would ... make sure we had a clearly defined mission, and a clear exit strategy.” On ISIS, he says that the situation is “the result of the last misguided war” in Iraq.
In response, May immediately gets in a “with all due respect.”
And we’re done with the government segment. Up next, the last segment: foreign policy and security
Tom Mulcair talks like he's telling his mom how to use e-mail. Patient, slow, with just a hint of burning rage. #macdebate
— Honkey Magoo (@kevinjn) August 7, 2015
“It’s not my top priority, because it’s hard,” says May on Senate reform.
“One billion dollars has been spent on the Senate on Mr. Harper’s watch,” Mulcair says. He’s on a roll. “One billion dollars.”
Mulcair now promising to get rid of the unelected upper house entirely. “It’s a relic ... of our past”
Harper is drowning on the issue of his senators. Quibbling about the number of Liberal senators there are with Trudeau, but he’s badly lost this segment on procedure.
“I don’t want my grandchildren to have to bear the burden for wrong-headed choices made today,” says Mulcair. He and May double-teaming Harper for his appointed Senate killing an environmental bill passed by the elected congress.
“With all due respect” klaxon sounded for the first time for Elizabeth May
My role is not to apologize for the bad actions of others, says @pmharper on his troublesome Senate appointees. #macdebate
— Jessica Murphy (@Murphy_Jessica_) August 7, 2015
Fast-moving debate on Quebec and Clarity Act summed-up by contributor John Barber:
"You want a number? My number is nine." Best counterpunch so far. Point Trudeau.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
Re separatism: Why go there? His best speech so far. Point to Harper.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
"You're trying to throw gasoline on a fire that isnt even burning." Harper saves Mulcair from Trudeau Clarity Act attack.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
Back in Canada, things are getting pretty heated too. “Isn’t it ironic that this segment was supposed to be about how much heckling there is, how difficult it is to have conversation in parliament?” says May after a rather heated back-and-forth on Quebec independence.
“As Canadians, surely we can disagree without being disagreeable.”
Meanwhile, in America:
Wow, Fox News manages to kick off the first GOP primary debate by getting the crowd to boo Donald Trump.
— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) August 7, 2015
Question is, is this the round in which Harper will take flak for the unpopular counter-terrorism bill C51? Mulcair has pledged to repeal it; but Trudeau’s Liberal party helped pass the bill, which is part of the reason they have slipped in the polls.
Oh boy! We're about to talk about decorum in the House of Commons! #macdebate
— Jessica Murphy (@Murphy_Jessica_) August 7, 2015
“Do you worry that Green candidates will take support away from candidates who might help defeat this government?” the moderator asks Elizabeth May.
“We need ... to understand this election isn’t about electing a prime minister,” she says. It’s about electing local representatives, she says.
Up next: the state of Canada’s democracy.
End of the environment section.
The more criticism he takes, the more obvious it is that Mulcair's the guy.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
Meanwhile, debate fans, I’m hearing rumours of another clash taking place just south of the border in the great state of Ohio. Someone called “Donald Trump” will apparently take the stage. I’ve never heard of him, but my colleague Alan Yuhas is live-tweeting that debate here.
Maxwell Cameron, a professor of political science, is watching the debate in Vancouver.
So far, all three opponents have hammered Harper on his record. Elizabeth May has been especially effective, but I think Mulcair’s line about ‘which recession?’ was good. Also Trudeau is looking strong, confident, and holding his own among more experienced leaders.
“[Harper’s] taking real heat on environment. Nobody in the room here is buying what he’s selling in terms of Canada’s record on emissions.”
For someone who did teach drama, Trudeau's presentation seems rushed, unmodulated.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
Trudeau needed to do much, much better than this tonight.
Meanwhile:
"Canada needs to take action ... Canadians want action" Elizabeth May #cdnpoli #macdebate
— Don Peat (@reporterdonpeat) August 7, 2015
May continues to kill it.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
“Keystone XL represents the export of 40,000 jobs” says Mulcair. Says he wants to keep those jobs at home.
“Should Canadians assume major energy projects will be on hold for a Mulcair prime ministership?” asks the moderator.
“Part of sustainable development is creating those value-added jobs and keeping them in your own country,” he says, without directly answering the question. Then he goes on the attack: “Here’s the rub: Mr Harper has got the balance all wrong.”
He points to the Conservatives’ scrapping of environmental protection legislation; says that Harper’s “belligerent butting-head approach” isn’t working with Canada’s indigenous First Nation peoples re: resource-control.
Point: Mulcair
If you had “pipelines going hither and yon” on your Canada debate bingo card, come up and collect your prize.
Harper looking more and more under siege. In a direct sense, Green party leader Elizabeth May is winning tonight. In a strategic sense, Mulcair’s NDP will do best from everyone ganging up on the tories.
Meanwhile, Elizabeth May is getting huge plaudits from the Twittocracy.
I'd say Elizabeth May looks the strongest off the bat. Her lines are sharp, on-topic and well-delivered. #macdebate
— Ethan Cox (@EthanCoxMtl) August 7, 2015
When it comes to question Harper..specially abt environment..Somehow Elizabeth May nails it every single time! #Macleans #Debate #MacDebate
— Rahul Bhalla (@RahulBhalla9) August 7, 2015
Passionate statement from @ElizabethMay on the need for #climate action that will benefit Canada's economy. #Macdebate
— Mike Schreiner (@MikeSchreiner) August 7, 2015
Kinda love Elizabeth May though. #macdebate
— Nicole Williams (@nicolewilll) August 7, 2015
Is she Canada’s Nicola Sturgeon?
Mulcair: We're in a superbad recession Harper: I'm not denying that Mulcair: Cool, why are we here then #macdebate
— Hilary Beaumont (@HilaryBeaumont) August 7, 2015
We’re back, and a tough question for Harper. What has he actually achieved on energy exports?
Harper brings up Keystone. “I’ve had many conversations with President Obama,” he says. “I’m very optimistic about the future of that project.”
Do you think we have to wait for a new President for that? “That may be the case,” says Harper. “But I think whoever is the next President will approve that project.”
The economic section is over, much to what must be Harper’s relief. Though his relief may be short-lived: energy and the environment is up next.
The Canadian leaders debate is being simulcast in French, Punjabi, Cantonese, Mandarin, Italian and English #multiculturalism
— Tim Mak (@timkmak) August 7, 2015
"we are substantially in surplus," says @pmharper.
— Jessica Murphy (@Murphy_Jessica_) August 7, 2015
“For five months in a row the Canadian government has shrunk,” Mulcair says in answer.
He has an unerring ability to get the last word.
Here’s the problem for Trudeau. He already has an image problem as young and inexperienced. He looks very presentable; but he umms and ahhs a lot; he seems nervous. He knows he has the most to prove.
But Mulcair seems, or is, much calmer; he waits for Trudeau and Harper to finish, doesn’t speak over anyone, but comes off as confident and assured.
If you have “middle-class” on your Canadian leaders’ debate bingo card tonight, you are already a winner.
"Middle class" goes cumulo-nimbus in debate wordcloud.
— John Barber (@annegonian) August 7, 2015
Trudeau tries to outflank Mulcair on the left, proposing income taxes on the richest 1%. “We think that Canadians are paying their fare share,” Mulcair answers. “We think corporations are not.”
May has the floor now, and is attacking Harper again on his fiscal responsibility:
We have a budget that is balanced now, other countries don't, says @pmharper is defense of his economic record. #macdebate
— Jessica Murphy (@Murphy_Jessica_) August 7, 2015
In the scheme of things not very, says May about a balanced budget. #macdebate
— Jessica Murphy (@Murphy_Jessica_) August 7, 2015
It’s not just Mulcair who’s Milibanding straight into the camera. Trudeau and Harper both doing it too.
I hate the way they all (except @ElizabethMay ) look so creepy smiling at the camera while gritting teeth at opponents. #macdebate
— hipmum29 (@hipmum29) August 7, 2015
Mulcair: “Mr. Harper, we really can’t afford four more years of you.”
The live-stream of tonight’s debate, by the way, is here.
The UK comparison is an illuminating one. Like in the British leaders’ debates, Elizabeth May, the green party leader, is focussing her attacks on the incumbent Harper. Trudeau, so far, is using that alliance to keep the pressure on Harper.
But it’s possible that Mulcair is the one who will really benefit.
Tom Mulcair now speaks for the first time. “We want to invest,” he says, in infrastructure, families, and the middle class.
Brit political aficionados: he appears to have picked up that Ed Miliband habit of staring straight down the camera. Which didn’t do Ed much good.
Harper responds now, already on the back foot as he defends his record. “Non-energy experts are up,” he says, but promises “growth going forward.”
“Prudent” is how he describes his economic stewardship. We can expect him to try to use the other candidates’ inexperience against them.
But it bears remembering that the economy has not grown as fast as he would have liked, especially since the oil price has dropped.
Justin Trudeau gets the first question, and is immediately on the attack against Harper. “Simply not working,” he says of the sitting prime minister’s economic plan.
The economy up first.
Here’s what’s at stake tonight. Polls are near-as-dammit showing a dead heat between Tom Mulcair’s NDP and the incumbent tories led by Stephen Harper. The big question tonight is whether anyone can move the needle in their direction.
And we’re off. The economy, energy and environment, the state of Canada’s democracy, and foreign policy and security will be the four topic areas.
John Barber, another contributor, will be watching in Toronto and contributing his views. Last week he wrote this briefing on Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s bleak outlook.
His take going into this debate is this:
All parties and media are advising watchers to lower expectations, given the season (high summer, low viewership), the timing (so early in such a long campaign) and the competition (Trump!). But low expectations that relieve pressure could also encourage the candidates to take some chances. So I expect a surprise or two.
Trudeau’s decision to precede the debate by releasing an action video showing him throwing furious jabs in a boxing ring is pure Trumpism. Harper’s invention of a phantom “Netflix tax” with which to cudgel opponents is more Barnum-esque. If we don’t hear words that will ring repeatedly throughout the campaign, we could see some interesting new tactics.
Trudeau’s job is to show he has “bottom.” Harper’s job is to show he’s human. Mulcair’s job is to show he is comfortingly stolid. None of those tasks quite requires the knives to come out … yet.
T-7 minutes to debate time.
Our contributor Jessica Murphy is in Ottawa watching the debate, and has this to say:
Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Green Party leader Elizabeth May will be the only two who have participated in federal election debates before, though Harper is by far the most experienced, having participated in them in campaigns since 2004.
That said, the NDP’s Tom Mulcair goes in with high expectations. He’s a lawyer and has used those skills to great effect in the House of Commons during question period against Harper, often acting something of a prosecutor.
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau has the most to prove - hence the Tory spokesman’s comment that if he shows up with his pants on he comes in ahead.
Welcome to our live coverage of the first Canadian party leaders’ debate, moderated by Macleans’ magazine political editor Paul Wells.
Incumbent Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper faces off tonight against National Democratic Party (NDP) leader Tom Mulcair, Liberal party leader Justin Trudeau and Green party leader Elizabeth May.
Harper has been PM since 2006, but polling currently puts Mulcair’s party in the lead over the Conservatives by the barest of margins, with Trudeau’s centrist Liberals relegated to third place. Trudeau, the son of former popular prime minister Pierre, has seen his party squeezed into the shrinking middle ground by the Conservatives on the right and the NDP on the left.
Harper, too, is having a difficult time. He lost his party’s natural base, the resource-rich province of Alberta, to the left-of-center NDP in a huge upset in the provincial elections earlier this year. However Alberta and Ontario remain crucial battlegrounds, while the NDP will look to consolidate their predicted gains in British Columbia and Québec.
The NDP have never formed a government, and only found their way into opposition for the first time in the last election after the collapse of the nationalist Bloc Quebecois. Harper will be looking to paint them as untested and inexperienced. And while the NDP may currently be enjoying an upswing in the polls, they still lag behind the business-friendly Conservatives in fundraising.
The prime minister’s job will go to whichever party wins enough districts, known as ridings. There are 338 up for grabs. With most of an 11-week campaign still to go before election night on October 19 – the longest campaign in Canadian history, though this is nothing compared to the marathon two-year election campaigns seen south of the border – there is still everything to play for.
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