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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
World
Kate Lyons and Mattha Busby

Canada election 2019: 'We'll govern for everyone' says Trudeau, after narrow win – as it happened

Closing summary

We’re now going to close our live coverage of the Canadian election. Here is an updated version of the summary my colleague Kate Lyons posted earlier.

  • Justin Trudeau won a second term as prime minister of Canada in a narrow victory that will mean he will lead a minority government. Its worth noting that minority governments in Canada do not usually last longer than two years.
  • Trudeau’s Liberal Party led in 146 out of 304 electoral districts that had reported results by about 10:30pm Toronto time on Monday, short of the 170 needed to security a majority government.
  • The New Democratic Party were widely expected to support the Liberals in some way, but the nature of their future relationship in the Canadian parliament remains to be seen and there was speculation that the left-wing party would pull Trudeau in a more progressive direction.
  • However, the party led by Jagmeet Singh suffered a blow on election day, dropping to 24 predicted seats from the 44 it won in 2015. However Singh gave no hint of disappointment, dancing and high-fiving supporters after a triumphant speech, in which he said his party would continue to “play a constructive and positive role in the new parliament”.
  • Donald Trump congratulated Trudeau for a “a wonderful and hard fought victory”, saying Canada was “well served” by its leader. His congratulations came despite the leaders’ rocky relationship. Trump described Trudeau as “dishonest” and “weak” at last year’s disastrous G7 meeting in Quebec.
  • Other world leaders joined a chorus of congratulations for Trudeau, but Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron are yet to comment.

  • In an awkward moment in the early hours of Tuesday morning, barely a minute after Andrew Scheer started addressing supporters at the Conservative headquarters, Justin Trudeau took to the stage in Montreal to deliver his victory speech, in a highly unconventional moment of political scheduling, which a CTV news anchor suggested was evidence of a “nasty campaign” spilling over into election night. (see 7.29am)

  • Addressing supporters, Trudeau said the nation had voted in favour of a “progressive agenda” and committed his government to fighting for all Canadians, not just those who voted for him.
  • The leader of the Conservative Party Andrew Scheer said while the night had not ended the way he wanted, the results – which saw the Liberals lose around 20 seats and the Conservatives win a larger share of the popular vote than the Liberals – showed his party had “put Trudeau on notice”. He declared his party is “the government in waiting”.
  • The Greens are expected to win three seats – up from one won in the 2015 election (though they gained another seat in a by-election earlier this year), and promised to “hold feet to the fire” in the new parliament, especially to ensure action on the climate crisis.

  • The real winners in today’s vote were the Bloc Québécois, which are set to win 32 seats, more than tripling the party’s seat count compared to the 2015 election, making it the largest party after the Liberals and Conservatives. The leader of Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet told supporters the desire for Quebec sovereignty ran deep within him but he did not go to parliament to undermine federalism, but would represent the interests of Quebecois in parliament “while we wait for Quebecois to choose another path”, where Quebecois might be “partners, but equals, and free”.
  • The election represents a death knell for the country’s fledging far right party, the People’s Party of Canada, writes Martin Petriquin. “Its leader, former Conservative MP Maxime Bernier, adopted the tone and substance of Trumpian nativism, decrying multiculturalism and promising to decrease immigration. Formed just over a year ago, the PPC ran a nearly full slate of candidates, yet failed to win a single seat.”
  • Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former attorney general and justice minister who was expelled from the Liberal party after publicly criticising Trudeau for his role in the SNC Lavalin scandal, was successful in her bid to retain her seat as an independent.

Thanks for joining us, and have a nice day.

Updated

The Liberal party has tweeted this photo of Justin Trudeau embracing supporters.

While the Conservative party’s Twitter account still leads on this campaign video.

And the New Democratic Party is striking an optimistic note.

Bloc Quebecois say thanks.

This is worth a read.

Congratulatory tweets from world leaders are coming thick and fast.

Here is Martin Patriquin’s snap analysis:

Updated

This is from Reuters:

A Quebec separatist party that softened its demands for independence reaped the reward on Monday, mounting a remarkable comeback in Canada’s election that deprived Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of a majority.

The Bloc Quebecois, revitalised under new leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, jumped to 32 seats from 10 seats in the predominantly French-speaking province, according to provisional results. Quebec accounts for 78 seats in the House of Commons, second only to Ontario.

“We have come far but we will go further,” Blanchet told jubilant supporters in the early hours of Tuesday.

The ruling Liberals went into the election seeking to add 10 seats to the 40 they held in Quebec. But the Bloc’s resurgence meant they lost seven, helping reduce Trudeau to a minority.

Blanchet’s party will not be a kingmaker in the new Parliament, however, since the Liberals look set to govern with the left-leaning New Democrats.

Surveys show support for Quebec independence is far below the levels it hit in 1995, when a referendum on breaking away from Canada only just failed.

Blanchet has muted talk of separatism, positioning the Bloc as a party that wants to stand up for Quebec’s interests and the French language in the federal Parliament in Ottawa rather than actively seeking to break up the country.

“The strength Blanchet brings is he projects an image that is not quite as hardcore as the previous leaders. That allows him to draw on a much wider slice of the electorate,” said University of Montreal professor Pierre Martin.

The 54-year-old former provincial minister and media personality said the Bloc wanted to make Parliament work and would back any proposed legislation that was good for Quebec.

“I don’t believe Quebecers and Canadians elected a minority government with the goal of going back to the ballot boxes in 18 months,” he said. “We need to make Parliament work.”

Blanchet - repeating comments he made over the weekend - said Quebec could one day “give itself all the attributes of sovereignty,” while making clear it would not happen during the lifetime of this federal Parliament.

“Our job is not to make Canadian federalism work. Our job ... is also not to cause problems,” he said, adding the party would not be servile.

Blanchet is particularly close to Quebec’s nationalist Coalition Avenir Quebec government, which brought in legislation earlier this year banning some public employees from wearing religious symbols.

Trudeau said during a French-language campaign debate that he would be prepared to challenge the law, prompting Blanchet to accuse him of not respecting Quebec.

There is speculation that the Liberals is most likely to be supported by the left-wing New Democratic party.

Singh has said he has spoken with Trudeau and told him his party would be “working hard to deliver on making sure we deliver the priorities that Canadians have.” Minority governments in Canada rarely last more than two years.

John Manley, a former Liberal finance minister who now works in the private sector, said:

I think a Liberal government supported by the NDP is likely going to lean farther left. It raises a series of issues about what are the demands that an NDP party would make. What’s the price of governing going to be? I think businesses are going to be reluctant to make any moves until they get some satisfaction around that.

Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said:

One question will be if the Liberals adopt any of the NDP proposals on raising taxes, or will the focus instead fall on pharmacare. It’s likely that at least one key NDP priority will be addressed.

Conrad Winn, professor of political science at Carleton university, said:

He’s (Trudeau) going to have to curry support with somebody. The NDP may not wish to run another election, they may not be able to afford it. The Bloc may very well wish to run another election because they’re on a bit of a comeback. It’s not clear what kind of deal that Justin has to have with the opposition parties. He may have to have a deal with more than one party.

Jonathan Rose, professor in politics at Queen’s university in Kingston, Ontario, said:

Historically, the Liberals have been kind of a chameleon party. They’ve campaigned from left and governed from the right. They’ll moderate the way they govern for the next few years.

Markets like stability and minority governments are inherently less stable than majority governments, but Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are a known commodity and so it shouldn’t be disruptive. Right now they don’t need the Bloc Quebecois. That’s probably a relief for the Liberals.

Karl Schamotta, director of global markets strategy at Cambridge Global Payments, said:

The (results) suggest that Mr. Trudeau will require the support of leftist opposition parties to enact important pieces of legislation. The strongly environmentalist, anti-corporation and social spending-friendly New Democratic Party is likely to assume the king-maker role, meaning that investment-friendly pipeline and infrastructure initiatives could struggle to win approval.

Updated

Here’s the front page of the Globe and Mail, arguably the most influential newspaper in Canada.

It notes the surge of Bloc Quebecois in the French-speaking province, after reports that it had downplayed its aspirations for independence in Quebec.

Global National anchor Dawna Friesen said it was “unprecedented” that the prime minister would begin his speech during that of his main opponent’s. Still, the channel moved to cover the leader of the largest party.

Here’s more from Andrew Scheer’s speech. Its worth noting that the Conservatives usually do well in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

There were excitable scenes during New Democratic Party leader Jasmeet Singh’s speech earlier, after the loss of nearly half his party’s seats.

Here’s a useful interactive map of of the results from CBC.

Updated

That’s it from me, my colleague Mattha Busby is going to take over the blog and bring you any late analysis and reaction. Thanks for reading along.

Summary

  • Justin Trudeau has won a second term as prime minister of Canada, but in a narrow victory that will mean he leads a minority government.

  • Trudeau’s Liberal Party led in 146 out of 304 electoral districts that had reported results by about 10:30pm Toronto time on Monday, short of the 170 needed to security a majority government.

  • Donald Trump congratulated Trudeau for a “a wonderful and hard fought victory”, saying Canada was “well served” by its leader. His congratulations came despite the leaders’ rocky relationship. Trump described Trudeau as “dishonest” and “weak” at last year’s disastrous G7 meeting in Quebec.

  • In an awkward moment in the early hours of Tuesday morning, barely a minute after Andrew Scheer started addressing supporters at the Conservative headquarters, Justin Trudeau took to the stage in Montreal to deliver his victory speech, in a highly unconventional moment of political scheduling, which a CTV news anchor suggested was evidence of a “nasty campaign” spilling over into election night.

  • Addressing supporters, Trudeau said the nation had voted in favour of a “progressive agenda” and committed his government to fighting for all Canadians, not just those who voted for him.

  • The leader of the Conservative Party Andrew Scheer said while the night had not ended the way he wanted, the results – which saw the Liberals lose around 20 seats and the Conservatives win a larger share of the popular vote than the Liberals – showed his party had “put Trudeau on notice”. He declared his party: “the government in waiting”.

  • The New Democrat Party, led by Jagmeet Singh, suffered a blow on election day, seeing their seat count drop from 44 won in 2015 to 24 predicted seats. However Singh gave no hint of disappointment, dancing and high-fiving supporters after a triumphant speech, in which he said his party would continue to “play a constructive and positive role in the new parliament”.

  • The Greens are expected to win three seats – up from one won in the 2015 election (though they gained another seat in a byelection earlier this year), and promised to “hold feet to the fire” in the new parliament, especially to ensure action on the climate crisis.

  • The real winners in today’s vote were the Bloc Québécois, which are set to win 32 seats, more than tripling the party’s seat count compared to the 2015 election, making it the largest party after the Liberals and Conservatives. The leader of Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet told supporters the desire for Quebec sovereignty ran deep within him but he did not go to parliament to undermine federalism, but would represent the interests of Quebecois in parliament “while we wait for Quebecois to choose another path”, where Quebecois might be “partners, but equals, and free”.

  • Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former attorney general and justice minister who was expelled from the Liberal party after publicly criticising Trudeau for his role in the SNC Lavalin scandal, was successful in her bid to retain her seat as an independent.

Green leader Elizabeth May addresses supporters

Green Party leader Elizabeth May arrives with her grandkids Moss Burton, 13, and Nina Liv, 12, during election night as results in British Columbia.
Green Party leader Elizabeth May arrives with her grandkids Moss Burton, 13, and Nina Liv, 12, during election night as results in British Columbia. Photograph: Chad Hipolito/AP

Addressing her supporters, May says that along with the Bloc Québécois (which almost doubled its seat count), the Greens are the big winners today, having doubled their popular vote and tripling its seat count (the Greens won one seat in 2015, but picked up a second in a byelection a few months ago. They won three this today).

“We will keep fighting across this country,” she said. “In a minority government we can make a huge difference and we will.”

May spoke about the children’s climate strikes and the need for aggressive action on climate change. “We will not allow the parliament of Canada in its 43rd session to let down the children of Canada.”

“This is the best result that any Green Party in any first-past-the-post parliamentary system has ever had,” said May, who vowed that her party would work hard to hold the government to account by “non-stop arm-twisting”.

“I guess the phrase is holding the feet to the fire, there will be crispy toes,” she said.

'We are the government-in-waiting,' says Andrew Scheer, Conservative leader

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer waves with wife Jill and children as he addresses supporters after losing to Justin Trudeau in the federal election in Regina, Saskatchewan.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer waves with wife Jill and children as he addresses supporters after losing to Justin Trudeau in the federal election in Regina, Saskatchewan. Photograph: Todd Korol/Reuters

Scheer said he has spoken to Trudeau to congratulate him on winning the most seats. He said that the strength of a democracy is not just measured by how we vote, but how we move forward once those votes have been counted.

Scheer said that while the night’s results are not what he hoped for, he is proud of the team and the Conservative movement, reminding people of the different mood in 2015 “when Justin Trudeau looked unstoppable, when pundits said that this was the beginning of another Trudeau dynasty and he had eight of 15 years ahead.”

But Scheer said this election result, in which the Liberals lost 20 seats, showed that the “Conservatives have put Trudeau on notice”.

“Mr Trudeau, when your government falls, Conservatives will be ready and we will win.”

Scheer says his party has made history by turning a first-term majority government into a minority government and highlights the fact that the Conservatives are leading the popular vote.

“More Canadians wanted us to win this election than any other party!” he said. “This is how it starts! We are the government in waiting.”

Trudeau has finished speaking.

CTV’s news anchor says: “It’s very unorthodox for one leader to start talking while another leader is still talking.” So, CTV is now screening Andrew Scheer’s speech from where they had to cut it off in order to cross to Trudeau.

Trudeau’s speech can be seen here.

'We will govern for everyone,' says Trudeau

Prime minister Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau wave to his supporters at the Palais des Congres in Montreal after holding on to power in a nail-bitingly close election.
Prime minister Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie Grégoire Trudeau wave to his supporters at the Palais des Congres in Montreal after holding on to power in a nail-bitingly close election. Photograph: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP via Getty Images

Trudea addresses Canadians, saying that no matter who they voted for, he would be their prime minister. “We will work hard for you, your families and your family.”

Trudeau says that the nation has voted in favour of a progressive agenda.

“You have asked us to invest in Canadians, to reconcile with the indigenous people and make it a priority and to show even more vision and ambition where we are fighting against the biggest challenge of our times – climate change. It is exactly what we will do, we know there is a lot of work to do, but I give you my word, we will continue what we started.

“Liberals know, as all Canadians know, it is always possible to do better.”

“We all want safer communities, a cleaner planet and a better quality of life. We seek hardship for none and prosperity for all, and if we unite around these common goals, I know we can achieve them. In the years ahead, our team will work hard to build on the progress

“We will champion Canada in all its diversity,” he says. “We will always put this country and its people first.”

Updated

Trudeau thanks supporters

Trudeau begins by thanking his family including his wife, with whom he says he made a decision years ago “to fight for a stronger Canada and a more prosperous Canada”.

Trudeau thanks is campaign staff who have made huge sacrifices “to move Canada forward”. He thanks them and says “you did it!”

Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer speak at the same time

Andrew Scheer is giving a speech to supporters, thanking them. But just as he has started his speech, Trudeau has taken to the stage, cutting into Scheer’s speech, forcing news networks to cut from Scheer’s speech to Trudeau, with news reporters on CTV saying “a nasty campaign has bled into election night”, suggesting the unusual timing of the speech was deliberate from Trudeau’s campaign.

Jagmeet Singh gives triumphant speech despite blow to NDP's numbers

New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to campaign volunteers and supporters at the NDP election office on election day.
New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh speaks to campaign volunteers and supporters at the NDP election office on election day. Photograph: Lindsey Wasson/Reuters

Jagmeet Singh of the leftwing NDP is addressing supporters.

He says it has been an incredible night and an incredible journey, despite the fact his party’s 44 seats look set to be cut nearly in half (they are currently projected to win 25 seats).

He congratulates Justin Trudeau, whom he said he had called earlier in the evening. He says he told Trudeau that the NDP would be working hard to deliver on the promises they had campaigned on.

Singh says he was honoured to lead a team that was the “most diverse and most caring”, which represented women and LGBTQ people.

He spends a lot of time thanking his team and talking about the people he met throughout the campaign who inspired him to campaign for affordable healthcare and medication and the rights of indigenous Canadians.

The speech started in English, before moving to French as he addressed supporters in Quebec.

He said through the campaign he had met a lot of people in Canada who are doing it tough and his message to them was: “New Democrats are going to Ottawa to fight for you.

“The real winner of this election is not a leader or a party, the real leader of any election should be the people and that is Canadians,” he said.

“Canadians have sent a clear message tonight that they want a government that works for them, not the rich and powerful, not for the well-connected.”

As Leyland Cecco points out, despite the congratulatory message from Trump, the two leaders haven’t had a warm relationship.

The US president called the Canadian prime minister “dishonest” and “weak” last year, after Trudeau and and other world leaders issued a communique at the G7 hosted in Québec.

The two leaders had also feuded over trade policy, with Trump accusing Trudeau of placing “massive tariffs” on consumer goods.

Their chilly relationship stands in stark contrast to the “bromance” Trudeau had with former president Barack Obama, who endorsed the Liberal leader last week ahead of the vote.

Find a man who looks at you the way Justin Trudeau looks at Barack Obama. Obama and Trudeau in March 2016 during Trudeau’s first official visit to the White House.
Find a man who looks at you the way Justin Trudeau looks at Barack Obama. Obama and Trudeau in March 2016 during Trudeau’s first official visit to the White House. Photograph: Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA

Leyland Cecco has this update:

Independent candidate for Vancouver-Granville, Jody Wilson-Raybould has been elected.
Independent candidate for Vancouver-Granville, Jody Wilson-Raybould has been re-elected. Photograph: Darryl Dyck/AP

Jody Wilson-Raybould, the former attorney general and justice minister who was expelled from the Liberal party after publicly criticizing Trudeau for his role in the SNC Lavalin scandal, was successful in her bid to retain her seat as an independent.T

he first Indigenous person to hold the one of the most powerful positions in government, Wilson-Raybould played a central role in one of the most damaging episodes in Trudeau’s first term of office, when she testified the prime minister and his staff improperly pressured her to abandon the criminal persecution of engineering giant SNC Lavalin.

After she resisted, she was shuffled out of the position of attorney general and eventually ejected from the party.

Jane Philpott, the former treasury board president and close friend of Wilson-Raybould was also booted from the party for criticizing Trudeau. But her attempt as an independent candidate to keep her seat in Ontario failed, with a disappointing third place finish for the one-time star of the Liberal party.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May has spoken to Global News.

She says while the party doesn’t want to count its chickens, it has been a good night for her party and they are hopeful they might take a seat in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

She said she hoped the Greens might play a crucial role in the minority government that is formed.

“None of the other parties have put forward a credible climate plan and we really don’t have time for these wonderful lip-service messages about climate, we actually have to do what’s required and I hope we have enough seats to get whatever government is formed to do what is required,” she said.

Updated

Victorious Bloc Québécois leader addresses supporters

The leader of Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet is addressing supporters now.

It has been a good day for his party, which is set to win 32 seats, more than tripling the party’s seat count compared to the 2015 election, making it the largest party after the Liberals and Conservatives.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is one of the big winners in today’s election, with his party nearly tripling its seat number.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is one of the big winners in today’s election, with his party nearly tripling its seat number. Photograph: Graham Hughes/AP

He praises his fellow candidates, saying “Three or four months ago when we were just crazy people, some crazy people said yes, and now some crazy people are going to the House of Commons.”

“Those people set aside their professional life and they won with a solemn commitment to Quebecois.”

Speaking about the fact Canadians had elected a minority government, he said: “No party will control the House of Commons.”

“The Bloc Québécois does not want to form a government or participate in a government. However, if what is proposed will help Quebec, you can count on us. But if it hurts Quebec, the bloc will stand up and block it.”

He said the party will talk with government about policies “except if we’re talking about putting more oil across Quebec,” to huge cheers, or if it means compromising Quebec’s language, values, and commitment to secular institutions.

He added that he does not think that the people of Canada voted for a minority government because they want to go back to the polls in 18 months.

Blanchet said the desire for Quebec sovereignty runs deep within him but he does not go to parliament to undermine federalism.

Blanchet said that his party would not be servile but would aim to represent the interests of Quebecois “while we wait for Quebecois to choose another path”, where Quebecois might be “partners, but equals, and free”.

Updated

Australia’s top election analyst has been tweeting about the results and as he points out, the Conservatives have actually received a higher share of the vote than the Liberals. The former is predicted to receive 34.4% of the overall vote, compared to 33.2% for the Conservatives.

This is largely the result of much of their support being concentrated in areas like Alberta and Saskatchewan, where there are not a huge number of seats, or ridings, as they are called in Canada.

Dramatic upsets as cabinet ministers, deputy Conservative leader, and opposition party leader lose their seats

Leyland Cecco reports on the upsets in tonight’s results:

Despite maintaining power, Trudeau has lost a number of cabinet ministers. The most stunning defeat was veteran lawmaker and public safety minister Ralph Goodale, who has represented Saskatchewan since 1993.

In Alberta, both Amarjeet Sohi, the natural resource minister and Randy Boissonnault lost their seats, a result that means the neither Alberta nor Saskatchewan will have representation in Trudeau’s federal government as frustration in the western region of the country continues to amplify.

Maxime Bernier, the head of the populist People’s Party of Canada has lost his seat leaving the future of his party in doubt.
Maxime Bernier, the head of the populist People’s Party of Canada has lost his seat leaving the future of his party in doubt. Photograph: Mathieu Belanger/Reuters

The Conservative party also took a heavy loss, with deputy party leader Lisa Raitt losing her race to former Olympic kayaker Adam van Koeverden.

Maxime Bernier, leader of the populist People’s Party of Canada, which critics have called xenophobic and racist, has lost his seat. Without Bernier’s much-needed win, the former Conservative minister’s newly-formed party will have no presence in the house of commons – making its future unclear.

Joy and despair: supporters react to election results – in pictures

Liberal Party supporters react as they watch the live federal election results at the Palais des Congres in Montreal.
Liberal Party supporters react as they watch the live federal election results at the Palais des Congres in Montreal. Photograph: Stéphane Mahé/Reuters
Supporters of Liberal party candidate, Justin Trudeau, celebrate after the first results are announced at the Palais des Congres in Montreal.
Supporters of Liberal party candidate, Justin Trudeau, celebrate after the first results are announced at the Palais des Congres in Montreal. Photograph: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP via Getty Images
Conservative Andrew Scheer supporters watch the election results come in at his campaign headquarters in Regina.
Conservative Andrew Scheer supporters watch the election results come in at his campaign headquarters in Regina. Photograph: Todd Korol/Reuters
Supporters watch the results come in at the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s campaign headquarters .
Supporters watch the results come in at the Conservative leader Andrew Scheer’s campaign headquarters . Photograph: Carlos Osorio/Reuters
A Green Party supporter reacts while observing the live federal election results in Victoria, British Columbia.
A Green Party supporter reacts while observing the live federal election results in Victoria, British Columbia. Photograph: Kevin Light/Reuters
The mood at the Conservative party headquarters was very subdued as results suggested the party would not form government.
The mood at the Conservative party headquarters was very subdued as results suggested the party would not form government. Photograph: Carlos Osorio/Reuters
Supporters of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), which is on track to win zero seats, react as they look at federal election results in Beauceville, Quebec.
Supporters of the People’s Party of Canada (PPC), which is on track to win zero seats, react as they look at federal election results in Beauceville, Quebec. Photograph: Mathieu Belanger/Reuters
Green Party leader Elizabeth May and supporters react while observing the live federal election results, which predict the party will win three seats, an increase of one seat on their results from the last election.
Green Party leader Elizabeth May and supporters react while observing the live federal election results, which predict the party will win three seats, an increase of one seat on their results from the last election. Photograph: Kevin Light/Reuters
Trudeau looks set to retain his role as prime minister despite an election campaign beset with scandals.
Trudeau looks set to retain his role as prime minister despite an election campaign beset with scandals. Photograph: Sebastien St-Jean/AFP via Getty Images
A grim mood at the headquarters of Andrew Scheer’s Conservative party.
A grim mood at the headquarters of Andrew Scheer’s Conservative party. Photograph: Carlos Osorio/Reuters

Greens leader Elizabeth May will hold on to her seat, giving the Greens two confirmed and two expected seats.

Leyland Cecco writes:

Without his majority, Trudeau will have to reach out to other parties in order to prop up his Liberal party— and how they will cobble together the 170 votes needed. Rather than create a formal coalition, the prime minister will likely use a process known as confidence and supply, in which the Liberals reach out to different parties in order to secure votes for legislation.

The results open the door to the leftwing New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois to the balance of power a minority government.

The star of the evening was Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the separatist Bloc which managed to more than triple its seat count over the 2015 election.

Jagmeet Singh of the leftwing NDP, who surged in the polls in the final weeks of the campaign with the aid of viral social media videos, wasn’t able to convert the popularity into electoral wins. The party’s 44 seats were nearly cut in half.

The results tracker at the top of this blog shows the number of declared seats for each party, which confusingly seems to suggest that the Conservatives will win more seats that the Liberals, but below you’ll also see the number of predicted seats for each party, which give Trudeau’s Liberal a lead over Scheer’s Conservatives.

Andrew Scheer set to hold on to his seat

He may not become Canada’s next prime minister, but Andew Scheer is set to retain his seat.

Updated

Pretty grim scenes at the Conservative Party headquarters, as results come in predicting Trudeau will hold on to power, albeit probably in a minority government.

Updated

Leyland Cecco has this interpretation of events:

Justin Trudeau will hold on to power – but a number of tight races mean it is unclear how strong his mandate will be.

With results still to come, the Liberal party have a large enough lead over the rival Conservative party to continue governing, but have not yet reached enough seats to preserve their parliamentary majority. With the prospects of a minority government, election results will prove critical in determining which parties hold the balance of power moving forward.

Updated

Stewart Prest, from the department of political science at Simon Fraser University, sounds a note of caution after CBC predicted a Liberal minority government.

Martin Patriquin who is at the Liberal Party headquarters in Montreal writes that cheers erupted as CBC and Radio-Canada just called a Justin Trudeau government.

“Four more years!” chants the crowd—though it is still unknown whether it is going to be a minority or a majority government.

CBC call election for Justin Trudeau

CBC have called the election for Trudeau, though have said “whether it will be a minority or majority government remains to be seen.”

Updated

Live results tracker

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Polls have now closed across the country.

First results – Liberals hold onto bulk of seats in Atlantic Canada

Leyland Cecco has our first results of the night.As of 10pm EST (now) the results are as follows:

Number of seats the party has won or is leading in:

  • Liberal 94
  • Conservatives 63
  • Bloc Québécois 16
  • New Democratic party 9
  • Green 1

While the Liberals have lost a handful of seats in Atlantic Canada, the party has nonetheless emerged largely unscathed – a promising result for Trudeau.

But as results from Ontario and Quebec begin to pour in, the race is expected to tighten considerably.

The separatist Bloc Québécois party is hoping to make substantial gains in Québec, stealing back seats the Liberals won in 2015.

In the suburbs of Ontario, Conservatives are hoping to make gains as well- but early results don’t look promising for the party.

Liberal Party supporters react at initial federal election results at the Palais des Congres in Montreal, Quebec.
Liberal Party supporters react at initial federal election results at the Palais des Congres in Montreal, Quebec. Photograph: Stéphane Mahé/Reuters

Martin Patriquin is in Montreal at the Liberal party headquarters. He writes:

There are maybe three dozen Liberal supporters at the party’s campaign headquarters at Montreal’s Palais des congrès. With the polls in Quebec and Ontario just closed, they shuffle about what looks like a carpeted pit, watching the giant screen, periodically cheering as positive results trickle in and otherwise taking advantage of the cash bar.

Updated

A note for those who don’t speak fluent Canadian: the term “riding” is going to be used a lot tonight. This is the way electoral districts are known in Canada, so we might say “The Green party have unexpectedly taken a seat in the riding of Fredericton”.

Leaders voting – in pictures

Justin Trudeau is surrounded by his family as he casts his vote on election day at a polling station on October 21, 2019 in Montreal, Canada.
Justin Trudeau is surrounded by his family as he casts his vote on election day at a polling station on October 21, 2019 in Montreal, Canada. Photograph: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, sons Xavier and Hadrien, and daughter Ella-Grace watch a television broadcast of the initial results from the federal election, in Montreal.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, sons Xavier and Hadrien, and daughter Ella-Grace watch a television broadcast of the initial results from the federal election, in Montreal. Photograph: Stéphane Mahé/Reuters
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer holds up his ballot after marking his choice at a polling station in Regina, Saskatchewan.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer holds up his ballot after marking his choice at a polling station in Regina, Saskatchewan. Photograph: Adrian Wyld/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Andrew Scheer gets a hug from his son as his wife Jill Scheer votes at a polling station in his riding in Regina, Saskatchewan.
Andrew Scheer gets a hug from his son as his wife Jill Scheer votes at a polling station in his riding in Regina, Saskatchewan. Photograph: Adrian Wyld/POOL/EPA
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh talks with wife Sidhu as he stops by the NDP election office on Election Day in Burnaby.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh talks with wife Sidhu as he stops by the NDP election office on Election Day in Burnaby. Photograph: Lindsey Wasson/Reuters
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May casts her vote at St. Elizabeth’s Parish while in Sidney, B.C.
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May casts her vote at St. Elizabeth’s Parish while in Sidney, B.C. Photograph: POOL/Reuters
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet casts his ballot on federal election day in Shawinigan, Quebec.
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet casts his ballot on federal election day in Shawinigan, Quebec. Photograph: Graham Hughes/AP
People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier casts his ballot in Beauce, Quebec.
People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier casts his ballot in Beauce, Quebec. Photograph: Mathieu Belanger/Reuters

They’ve called the Green seat in Fredricton, New Brunswick. Jenica Atwin has defeated incumbent Matt DeCourcey, from the Liberal Party, who is currently placing third.

Updated

It looks like the Green party could take a seat in Fredericton, New Brunswick, which would be pretty significant. They were not expected to win the seat, but currently have a strong lead there.

What to expect tonight?

Our reporter Leyland Cecco has this gudie for how the night is likely to unfold.

As Canada votes, pollsters expect a tight race as Justin Trudeau looks to protect his parliamentary majority – and job as prime minister.

The provinces in Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland & Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island), which Trudeau swept in 2015, will provide the first glimpse into the Liberal leader’s popularity. But all eyes will be on the vote-rich provinces of Quebec and Ontario, where Trudeau’s fate could decided.

Results from eastern Canada will available at 9:30 PM EST (in about half an hour). In the event that no clear front runner has emerged, party leaders will have to look west for an answer to who will form government.

While Conservatives will likely sweep the Prairies (Alberta and Saskatchewan) – British Columbia is notoriously unpredictable and could play a deciding factor. Results from the province will come in at 10 PM EST (in about an hour).

Updated

Canada goes to the polls after fraught election campaign

Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of the Canadian election. I’ll be bringing you the news as it comes out. Our reporter Leyland Cecco is on the ground in Toronto, you can follow him on Twitter here.

Justin Trudeau is bracing for the possibility of an electoral loss after Canadians went to the polls today in an election that marked a stunning change of fortunes for the charismatic Liberal leader who had pledged to reshape the country’s politics.

In the closing days of the campaign, Trudeau acknowledged that there was a good chance the opposition Conservatives could take more votes than his Liberal party, but the result is set to be close. Despite frantic campaigning that has seen the leaders criss-cross the country, no party appears set to capture the 170 seats needed for a majority in the House of Commons and smaller parties are fighting to emerge as powerbrokers.

The election campaign has been marked by scandal, in particular the emergence of images showing Trudeau in blackface, while the Conservative leader, Andrew Scheer, was accused of concealing the fact that he also holds a US passport.

Polls have closed on the east coast and we should be getting results from there shortly. Polls on the west coast will close in the next hour.

It could be a long and fraught few days before a government is formed, as Leyland Cecco reports: “If early results don’t indicate a clear winner, attention will likely shift to British Columbia, which Frank Graves, head of political polling firm Ekos Research Associates, calls a “pollster’s nightmare” for its difficulty to predict, meaning election night will be long and tiring for all party leaders. The uncertainty also foreshadows what could be a protracted and bitter fight in the coming days for control of parliament, making the last forty days seem like a breeze.

Updated

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