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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
National
Graeme Massie

Can Trump run again in 2024 election? - OLD

Photograph: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Donald Trump made history in becoming the first president in US history to be impeached twice by the House of Representatives.

But that doesn't mean that he is done with politics and he could be free to run again for the White House in 2024.

And the former president has even been urged to run again as a "martyr" by his ex-campaign manager, Brad Parscale, who believes the impeachment trial will only make him more popular with his MAGA base.

This could all become a real possibility if the Senate fails to convict Mr Trump at his trial, which kicked off in the high chamber on Tuesday.

Mr Trump was impeached for an unprecedented second time in January in the House by a vote of 232-197, with ten Republicans joining Democrats against him.

He was found guilty on one charge of incitement for urging his supporters to "fight like hell" before they attacked the Capitol on 6 January and tried to prevent the certification of Joe Biden's election victory.

But the formal impeachment by the House is just one step in the process and unless the Senate also convicts Mr Trump there is likely no barrier to prevent him seeking elected office again.

The Constitution allows the Senate to permanently disqualify Mr Trump from holding “any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States.”

That would only happen if the Senate convicted Mr Trump by a two-thirds majority, or 67 votes, it cannot be done with a simple majority.

If convicted the Senate then decides on the sanction that the former president would face, including disqualification from running again.

Under the Constitution, “judgment in cases of impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust or profit under the United States.” 

Only three elected officials, former federal judges West Humphreys, Robert Archibald, and Thomas Porteous, have ever been permanently barred from holding future office in American history.

The Constitution does not specify if the vote to disqualify needs a super majority, but the Senate has in the past used a simple majority for disqualification.

Before the impeachment trial even began 45 out of 50 Republican Senators voted that it was not constitutional and should not go ahead, which makes it a long shot to reach the two-thirds required to convict.

If he is not disqualified and he decided to run again, Mr Trump would be a strong position to secure the Republican nomination, with 42 per cent of Republicans saying they would vote for him in 2024, according to a Politico/Morning Consult poll.

This was down from 54 per cent in the wake of the Capitol riot but still put him ahead of other potential candidates, such as Mike Pence with 16 per cent, Donald trump Jr with 6 per cent, Ted cruz with six per cent, six per cent for Mitt Romney and five per cent for Nikki Haley.

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