Going back to 1950, the year the National Basketball Association (NBA) took over what the Basketball Association of America (BAA) had started three years prior, teams heading into Game 4 of the Finals down 1-2 won the trophy just 11 times.
That’s right. In the 69-year history of the NBA, teams that were down 1-2 in the Finals after the first three games won the title just 11 times. The 2-1 team, therefore, has an 84 percent chance of winning the championship while the 1-2 team’s chances are at a low 16 percent.
No team in NBA history has fallen into a 1-3 hole and come back to win the championship.
Several players for the defending champion Golden State Warriors are battling lingering injuries. Although Klay Thompson (hamstring) is expected to return in Game 4, the team once again will be without Kevin Durant (calf strain) for a ninth-straight game (spanning three series). Considering Durant is the lone Warrior to solve Kawhi Leonard during the course of his career, winning without him will be an uphill battle.
Complicating matters it that the Warriors struggled to win against the Raptors in the regular season, losing both games in that series.
With NBA history not on the Warriors’ side, we test Golden State’s chances of pulling off the almost insurmountable feat of winning the title from a 1-2 deficit. To start, the Warriors need only return to their 2015 roots, which is where their dynastic run began.
Next: 2015 Golden State Warriors
2015 Golden State Warriors
The Warriors won Game 1, 108-100, but the Lebron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers forced victories in Games 2 and 3 — winning them by two and five points, respectively. From the 1-2 hole, the Warriors surged, winning out the rest of the seven-game series to take the title. Those games included a 104-91 Game 5 blowout.
James contributed game-high scoring in all but one game for the Cavs, including 44 points in the Cavs’ Game 1 loss — somewhat proving that teams win championships, not individual players (at least in theory). But Andre Iguodala was recognized for his outstanding individual performance, winning Finals MVP.
Strength in Numbers, indeed.
Next: 2013 Miami Heat
2013 Miami Heat
LeBron James has battled much of his career to find the right balance between being the hero and fostering a team-first climate that gets others involved. In Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs, James went with the team-first mentality, recording a triple-double (18 points, 18 rebounds, 10 assists) that amounted to a four-point loss for the Heat.
Miami claimed the second game of the series, but found themselves on the wrong side of a 113-77 blowout in Game 3 against the Spurs thanks to players who have been integral to the success of the Toronto Raptors in the 2019 Finals: Danny Green (game-high 27 points) and Kawhi Leonard (double-double, with 14 points and 12 rebounds).
The Heat got the crucial Game 4 victory behind James’ 33 points to even things up. With all starters putting on double-digit scoring performances, the Spurs bounced back with a Game 5 win. But the Heat would seal the deal with wins in Games 6 and 7 courtesy of James’ game-high contributions of 32 points and 37 points, respectively.
In Game 6, Leonard notched another double-double but Green was limited to just three points. In Game 7, it was more double-trouble from Leonard but Green was limited to five points on offense.
For the 2019 Warriors to even the Finals series with the Raptors tonight in Game 4, they may have to pick their poison: Let Leonard record a double-double or score 30 points as he did in Game 3 — but totally shut down Danny Green.
All other factors remaining the same — Leonard (30 points), Pascal Siakam (18 points), Kyle Lowry (23 points) and Marc Gasol (17 points) — the Warriors would have won Game 3 if they had limited Green to five or fewer points. Curbing his 18-point effort to just five would have produced a score of 109-105 in the Warriors’ favor.
Next: 2011 Dallas Mavericks
2011 Dallas Mavericks
The series with the Miami Heat was close from start to finish, with the Mavericks dropping Game 1, bouncing back for a Game 2 win and dropping Game 3. The Mavs got the three-point Game 4 win behind Dirk Nowitzki’s team-high 21 points. The Game 5 victory was powered by Nowitzki going ballistic for a game-high 29. Dallas won it all in Game 6 because Jason Terry, coming off the bench, played the game of his life with 27 points.
Victory can belong to the Golden State Warriors a third-straight time if a bench player has a Terry-esque breakout scoring blitz in Game 4. Who will it be?
Next: 2006 Miami Heat
2006 Miami Heat
Jason Terry (26 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (32 points) did big things in Games 1 and 2 for the Dallas Mavericks, forcing the Heat into an 0-2 hole. But Miami climbed out of it because Dwyane Tyrone Wade scored 42 points in Game 3 to keep the Heat in the series. Miami won Games 4 through 6, for the championship, behind Wade’s monster scoring: 36 points (Game 4), 43 points (Game 5) and 36 points (Game 6).
Wade was rewarded for his heroics with the Finals MVP trophy.
Next: 1984 Boston Celtics
1984 Boston Celtics
The Celtics came up on the right side of their rivalry with the Los Angeles Lakers in a hard-fought seven games. Things were close, at first, with the Lakers clinching a 115-109 victory in Game 1. Boston bounced back with a Game 2 victory, 124-121.
The Lakers claimed a 33-point blowout over Boston in Game 3 to send the Celtics into a 1-2 hole heading into the critical Game 4 — which the Celtics won despite a 32-point performance from Lakers great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
The rivalry between Abdul-Jabbar and Larry Bird provided plenty of entertainment throughout.
A double-double from Bird (34 points, 17 rebounds) gave the Celtics a commanding 121-103 win in Game 5. A game-high 30-point performance from Abdul-Jabbar helped the Lakers to win Game 6.
But the Celtics would have the last word with a 111-102 Game 7 win, for the trophy. Bird was crowned Finals MVP king.
Next: 1978 Washington Bullets through 1957 Boston Celtics
1978 Washington Bullets through 1957 Boston Celtics
Five more teams emerged from the dreaded 1-2 hole to claim the NBA title. As with the teams in more recent NBA history that won championships after trailing through three games, an important trend holds true going back to the 1957 Boston Celtics: that crucial Game 4 win.
In other words, all teams that won championships after starting a Finals series down 1-2 evened things up in Game 4. For the Warriors to have a chance at a third-straight Larry O’Brien trophy, winning Game 4 tonight at Oracle Arena is a must (unless they wish to try their luck at defying NBA basketball history).
These are the remaining teams that clinched Game 4 wins before going on to win it all:
- 1978 Washington Bullets over the Seattle SuperSonics
- 1977 Portland Trail Blazers over the Philadelphia 76ers
- 1969 Boston Celtics over the Los Angeles Lakers
- 1962 Boston Celtics over the Los Angeles Lakers
- 1957 Boston Celtics over the St. Louis Hawks
Can the Golden State Warriors get the all-important Game 4 win tonight? If not, could they become the first team in league history to battle from a 1-3 deficit to win the championship?
Game 4 is tonight, Friday, June 7, from Oracle Arena in Oakland, Calif. Tipoff is just after 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.
Next: Fun facts
Fun facts
In 1947, the Philadelphia Warriors won the BAA Finals over the Chicago Stags, 4-1.
In 1969, the Boston Celtics, down 1-2 in the series, eked out their Game 4 win over the Los Angeles Lakers by just one point.
In the 2015 NBA Finals, Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala scored 22 points apiece, Draymond Green chipped in 17 points and Klay Thompson was limited to just nine. Curry shot a splashy 57.1 percent from three.
Stats provided by Basketball-Reference.com.
