The Tennessee Titans finished the 2019 regular season as one of the hottest offenses in the NFL. They managed to pile up the yards and the points despite an old-school offensive mentality. First-year offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has done a tremendous job featuring Derrick Henry while also getting production out of rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Keeping the Titans quiet will not be an easy task for Baltimore Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale and his players this weekend. Let’s break down the Titans’ passing and rushing attacks against the Ravens’ defense to see who has the edge in this game.
Titans’ rushing offense vs. Ravens’ rushing defense:
Like the Ravens, the foundation of the Titans’ offense is the running game. They have the league’s leading rusher in Derrick Henry, who finished the regular season with 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns on his 303 rushing attempts. To put an exclamation point on the regular season Henry gained 182 rushing yards on the New England Patriots in the wild-card round to propel Tennessee to victory. Thanks to Henry’s deeds, the Titans averaged 138.9 yards on the ground per game which trailed only the Ravens and San Francisco 49ers in 2019.
At first glance, one would assume that this is a matchup that the Ravens have well in hand despite Henry’s dominance. The Ravens allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game this season. However when we look closer we discover that the Ravens saw the second-fewest running back rush attempts in the regular season (296), thanks no doubt to their opponents being forced to abandon the run and play catchup. Opposing rushers averaged a not too shabby 4.4 yards per attempt against Baltimore, the 12th highest average in the regular season.
Rushing edge: Titans
If the Titans are able to keep Lamar Jackson and company in check and slow the Ravens’ offense down, Henry could be a huge thorn in the side of the Ravens defense. But it’s a very big if.
Titans’ passing offense vs. Ravens’ passing defense:
The Titans’ passing game has been efficient but far from spectacular, especially since Ryan Tannehill became the starting quarterback over Marcus Mariota. They averaged 223.9 passing yards per game, eclipsing 300-yards in a game just three times all season. That doesn’t mean Tennessee doesn’t have weapons in the passing game, though.
Rookie wide receiver A.J. Brown really came on with Tannehill under center. Brown had four games of 100-plus receiving yards in his last six games in the regular season. He finished the year with 1,051 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns at an eye-popping 20.2 yards-per-reception average. More impressive was that 465 receiving yards came after the catch, pointing to Brown being able to break tackles and outrun defenders once he gets the ball in his hands.
The Titans also like to target tight ends Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser, doing so 26% of the time in the regular season. Tennessee’s tight ends combined for 76 receptions for 948 yards and seven touchdowns in the passing game.
Weapons like Brown and Smith may not be able to help the Titans too much this week, however. The Ravens allowed the fewest receptions to tight ends in the regular season, ceding a mere 52 across their 16 games. They were also an elite force when it came to keeping wide receivers quiet. The Ravens cornerbacks, led by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphreys, gave up 7.1 yards per attempt to wide receivers — the fourth-lowest mark in the league.
I also wouldn’t expect Henry and the other Tennessee running backs to get a ton of targets in this game. The Titans utilize their running backs through the air far less than the league average, seeing just 47 completions go to the group this season.
Where the Ravens need to be careful is when sending blitzes — something Martindale loves to do. Tannehill has been able to overcome pressure well this season, having a 120.3 passer rating when blitzed in the regular season.
The passing game has been a complimentary piece of the Titans offense this season, enjoying its success on the back of a dominant ground game. But if forced to lean on Tannehill and his receivers, the Titans will find themselves overmatched here.
Passing edge: Ravens
Overall — Titans’ offense vs. Ravens’ defense:
The Titans have playmakers, this cannot be denied. But to get the best out of them, Tennessee’s defense has to meet them halfway and shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense. If they’re not able to do this — and let’s face it no one has so far — then the Titans will be forced to lean on the arm of Tannehill. They’ve didn’t have to do this in the regular season, so we have no real evidence that this is a successful strategy.
Baltimore’s passing defense is one of the most smothering units in the entire NFL. While they could conceivably be had on the ground, the Titans’ defense may do a better job of keeping Henry out of the game than the Ravens could simply by letting the score get out of hand early.
The Titans have enjoyed a fairytale end to the season, but they just don’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the most prolific rushing attack in NFL history.
