The digital asset sector is poised for transformation with the Senate’s decisive passage of the GENIUS Act in June 2025, promising to deliver essential regulatory clarity for stablecoins. This pivotal legislation aims to enforce stringent standards for reserve backing and transparency, effectively tackling the most critical challenges confronting the $260 billion stablecoin market.
Coinbase Global (COIN) has been front and center in this shift, with its shares jumping 16% in a single day on June 18. This surge comes on the heels of a strong first quarter, in which Coinbase reported $2.03 billion in revenue, up 24.2% for the year, and saw USD Coin (USDC) holdings in its products reach $12.3 billion as stablecoin adoption accelerated.
Now, with some analysts setting a Street-high price target of $400, 16% above current levels, the big question is clear: Will the GENIUS Act’s regulatory clarity be the catalyst that pushes Coinbase to new all-time highs in 2025, or is the market getting ahead of itself? Let’s find out.
A Closer Look at Coinbase’s Financials
Coinbase (COIN) is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., providing a comprehensive platform for trading, staking, and custody of digital assets. Shares are up 35.6% in the year to date and 58.6% over the past 52 weeks.
Following this strong price action, Coinbase’s market capitalization stands at $78.1 billion, with a forward price-earnings ratio of 60.23x and a price-sales ratio of 11.93x, metrics that underscore the market’s lofty expectations for future growth.
The company’s latest earnings report, released on May 8, 2025, paints a nuanced picture of resilience and transition. Total revenue for Q1 reached $2.03 billion, marking a 24% increase year-over-year but a 10% drop from the previous quarter, coming in just shy of analyst forecasts.
Transaction revenue fell 19% quarter-over-quarter to $1.26 billion, while subscription and services revenue grew 9% sequentially to $698 million. This uptick was largely fueled by the booming stablecoin market, with USDC’s market cap hitting an all-time high above $60 billion and average USDC held in Coinbase products soaring to $12.3 billion.
Despite these gains, net income took a hit, falling to $66 million from $1.2 billion a year earlier. However, adjusted net income and EBITDA remained robust at $527 million and $930 million, respectively, highlighting Coinbase’s ability to sustain profitability amid shifting market dynamics. Operating expenses rose 7% quarter-over-quarter to $1.3 billion, driven by ongoing investments in technology, development, administration, and marketing.
Coinbase’s Growth Catalysts
The passage of the GENIUS Act in the Senate is a watershed moment for both Coinbase and the broader stablecoin market. An acronym for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins, the GENIUS Act is the first U.S. bill aimed at regulating cryptocurrencies, specifically stablecoins, by establishing clear rules for issuers. This bill gives non-banks like Coinbase the green light to keep issuing and profiting from digital dollars, sidestepping the regulatory landmines that could have threatened their most lucrative revenue stream. Investors will be closely watching to see how this legislation fares in the House of Representatives.
Another standout development is Coinbase’s approval for a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF). This regulatory green light makes Coinbase the first U.S. crypto exchange to secure MiCA approval and allows it to offer crypto services across all 27 EU member states, gaining access to a unified market of over 450 million people.
Adding to this momentum, Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit marks a bold step into the crypto derivatives market, giving the company a stronghold and the ability to unify spot, futures, and options trading for its growing base of institutional clients. Coinbase is also teaming up with American Express (AXP) to launch its first credit card, the Coinbase One Card. This card, offering up to 4% back in Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on everyday purchases, is set to launch in the U.S. later this year for Coinbase One subscribers.
What Experts Predict for Coinbase
Analysts are keeping a close eye on Coinbase as the company heads into its next earnings season. They are forecasting Q2 earnings of $0.86 per share for Coinbase, with expectations climbing to $1.06 in Q3.
Management’s guidance sets the tone for the upcoming quarter. Coinbase is expecting subscription and services revenue to land between $600 million and $680 million this quarter, with management betting that strong stablecoin growth will help cushion the blow from weaker blockchain rewards as crypto prices cool off.
Sentiment among analysts is broadly positive. Of the 29 analysts covering Coinbase, there is a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, with the mean price target sitting at $270.78. However, the average target is actually below its current trading price, highlighting how quickly the market has repriced Coinbase on the back of the GENIUS Act’s passage in the Senate and renewed optimism around stablecoin regulation.
Still, the Street-high target of $400 remains in play, especially if Coinbase can deliver on its vision of expanding real-world crypto utility and scaling its infrastructure.
Conclusion
All told, the GENIUS Act and Coinbase’s recent moves have set the stage for real upside. While volatility is likely to stick around, the momentum from regulatory clarity and new growth levers suggests shares could keep trending higher.
