No one achieves victory over New Zealand by fluke. Joe Schmidt, who from the age of four was running around barefoot playing rugby in a small town in Waikato and dreaming of playing for the All Blacks, is only too aware of that. Having twice masterminded victories over the World Cup holders, he has spent the week assiduously plotting what would be the third and most momentous.
There are thousands of Ireland supporters here. That they are armed with expectation rather than hope says everything about the difference Schmidt, the men in green’s head coach, has made in transforming a team who had conquered Europe into one who have won a Test in South Africa, a series in Australia and, after 111 years of trying, beaten New Zealand.
They are, though, at a stage in the World Cup where they have never gone beyond: the quarter-finals. Their pool defeat to Japan, a result that jolted Ireland for a couple of weeks before they recovered their equilibrium against Samoa, earned them a date with New Zealand rather than South Africa, although the way the Springboks have been playing this year, Schmidt seems content with the devil he knows.
Those that think New Zealand, who have picked a back division short on experience, are vulnerable should take a breath. Only three countries have beaten the All Blacks in a World Cup: Australia, South Africa and France, twice each. The last time the holders were knocked out by a team who were not hosting the event was in 1999 when Les Bleus roused themselves into a stirring comeback at Twickenham.
It is 12 years since New Zealand were last beaten in a World Cup and Ireland’s only tournament victory against one of the southern hemisphere’s big three was against Australia in 2011. History is against Ireland, and this century the All Blacks’ win success is about 90%, but one of the reasons Schmidt has been so successful is that he builds his game around what he has, not what he desires. If a gameplan based on possession, territory and a terrier-like defence has not been endearing to neutrals, it took his side to No 1 in the world rankings last month.
There are only two teams here whose names would cause a slight furrow in the brows of New Zealand head coach, Steve Hansen: South Africa and Ireland, sides who since the last World Cup have caused the All Blacks problems through defensive line speed that has narrowed their attack and forced them to play at a slower pace. Unusually, they have struggled to find answers.
New Zealand failed to score a try in a Dublin defeat last November, an evening when the pressure they were put under was so full-on and unyielding that even Kieran Read blew a golden chance: losing control of the ball in the corner as he chased a Beauden Barrett chip before Peter O’Mahony, somehow and from somewhere, denied him. It was a moment that summed up Ireland on a day when they gave everything and more, and O’Mahony returns to the side on Saturday in a symbolic move by Schmidt, but they have since struggled to live up to a performance that made the exceptional ordinary.
New Zealand do not lose many matches. One reason is they carefully absorb the details of defeats before deciding how to react, not looking back in anger. Hansen has spent the year cultivating a back division to thwart opponents with narrow vision. He has moved Barrett to full-back, but in broken play he is virtually an alternate fly-half to Richie Mo’unga, the positioning of the pair forcing defences to keep watching and redeploying.
George Bridge and Sevu Reece have emerged as the two wings. They lack experience but as the New Zealand attack coach, Ian Foster, reflected on Friday, it means they play without fear or inhibition. Ireland know if they kick too long or turn the ball over, they will be playing the game on their opponents’ terms, but their half-backs and heartbeat, Johnny Sexton and Conor Murray, look back to their best and if the forecasted wet weather arrives, rain may not be the only drops as the All Blacks’ back three are aerially bombarded.
Hansen remarked Ireland were effective because they rarely went off script while Schmidt pointed to the All Blacks as being at their most dangerous when turning over possession and switching in an instant from defence to attack. It sums up the two sides, the one meticulous in its preparation and detailed in its planning, the other also geared to play to a pattern but with the eye for a half-chance and the skill to exploit it.
It has the potential to be the most epic of the quarter-finals, with both teams consumed by furious endeavour. Ireland to New Zealand since the last World Cup have become like kryptonite to Superman, Schmidt playing Lex Luther. It will be sayonara from Hansen or Schmidt, and to one of the two captains, Read and the admirable Rory Best – men who have served their teams with distinction – at the stage when this friendly World Cup turns cruel.
