April 29--Ryan Pace's opportunity has arrived. Time to step forward and let 'em fly. Sometime around 8:30 p.m. Thursday, the stick man at the NFL draft craps table will push the dice Pace's way. And at long last he'll make his first big roll as a general manager.
Just like that, with a blow into his fist and a side-armed toss, Pace will attempt to hit the jackpot, fully aware of the importance of capitalizing on the No. 7 pick.
Over the last three months, the Bears have pushed to reduce the gamble, filtering their exhaustive pre-draft research in a way that separates this year's sure things from the major risks.
So which player seems most worth wagering on? A gazillion mock drafts have yet to offer a consensus. Receivers Amari Cooper or Kevin White? Defensive tackle Danny Shelton? Edge rushers Vic Beasley, Shane Ray or Randy Gregory?
This is not only a top-10 pick, it's a tone-setter. It's Pace's first selection with the franchise. It's a pick former Bears general manager Jerry Angelo says has to generate substantial energy throughout the draft room.
"You want everybody to feel good when this guy walks in the building," Angelo said. "Not that he's the savior. But here's a guy we can win with. He's a guy who is going to reflect what you want as an organization, what you're trying to build."
So much momentum can be created by getting the pick right. So much can go wrong by crapping out.
"It's credibility," Angelo said. "If the player busts, you lose credibility. It's that simple."
Yet with history as a guide, it's difficult to conclude which scenario is most likely.
Over the last 25 years, the cast of players drafted at No. 7 registers as both encouraging and alarming.
Headlining the list are the perennial Pro Bowl playmakers who may one day be procuring bronze busts in Canton, Ohio -- cornerback Champ Bailey, picked by the Redskins in 1999; Adrian Peterson, to the Vikings in 2007.
Well behind them? The disappointing washouts who have already been cemented as busts: Andre Ware (Lions, 1990); Mike Mamula (Eagles, 1995); Darrius Heyward-Bey (Raiders, 2009) to name a few.
Still, ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. surveys the litany of players drafted seventh since 1989 -- the Bryant Youngs and Thomas Joneses and Aldon Smiths -- and sees a golden opportunity.
"For a lot of teams," Kiper said, "that pick has been a great one to have -- a true lucky 7."
Out of reach
As a first-time GM, Pace should refresh himself on the trapdoors that have opened beneath the No. 7 selection over the past quarter-century. In many cases, the blunders were avoidable.
Charley Casserly, a former GM for both the Redskins and Texans, understands the common gaffes that occur in the top 10. Teams can get caught reaching. They place too much value on measurables rather than film. They succumb to the temptation of prioritizing needs over selecting the best player.
"We're all human," Casserly said. "And we're all trying to help the team win. So sometimes we talk ourselves into believing a player is better than he is just because he fills that hole on your depth chart."
In 2005, for example, the Vikings took a chance on receiver Troy Williamson at No. 7 only eight weeks after trading Randy Moss to the Raiders.
Williamson's hands were iffy. His career at South Carolina was good but not great. Yet his speed proved tantalizing at a position the Vikings hoped to address.
Ultimately, though, Williamson flopped.
Four years later, the Raiders became similarly enamored with Heyward-Bey's size and speed, most notably his 4.27-second time in the 40-yard dash at the scouting combine. So they sold themselves on that explosiveness -- even though Heyward-Bey had only 42 catches for 609 yards in his final season at Maryland.
Not coincidentally, Heyward-Bey has averaged only 29 catches and 402 receiving yards over his first six seasons.
"It sounds basic. But if you're drafting a receiver, they have to be able to catch," said Vinny Cerrato, a former front-office executive for the 49ers and Redskins. "Some teams think they've got the answer. Like, 'We can teach him.' But what's the kid been doing for the previous 18 years?"
The Redskins' selection of Bailey in 1999 presented little peril.
Most notably, that pick occurred only after Casserly agreed to two mega deals. First, Washington fleeced Mike Ditka and the Saints of eight total picks to move from No. 5 down to No. 12 in the renowned Ricky Williams deal. Then Casserly climbed back to No. 7 by sending five total picks to the Bears.
In the end, the Redskins wound up with Bailey, the player they'd rated as the best in the draft.
"I don't think our evaluation of Champ Bailey was that much different than anybody else's," Casserly said. "I just think that all six teams ahead of us took need first."
'That draft made us'
One of the most well-documented strikeouts at No. 7 came in 1995 when the Eagles and first-year head coach Ray Rhodes fell in love with Boston College's Mike Mamula and maneuvered to make the defensive end their top priority.
The popular narrative on Mamula is that he was strictly a workout wonder whose stock skyrocketed only after he stormed through the combine, delivering an incredible exhibition of speed and explosiveness. In truth, that account is incomplete. Mamula's combine efforts were indeed wondrous, sending NFL decision-makers back for a deeper review of his college tape. But that film study showed Mamula as a driven, high-effort and consistently productive player.
The Eagles hadn't necessarily erred with their praise. But they hadn't focused enough on Mamula's iffy size (250 pounds) and overall stiffness. And when they made a decision to trade up from No. 12 to 7, they badly miscalculated how much stock to put into Mamula's combine exploits.
Mamula, Kiper said, was undoubtedly a late first-round talent. But he was never a top-10 stud.
"That was the mistake," Kiper said. "Overreacting to the workout when the workout (athleticism) didn't match the tape. ... He wasn't that explosive athlete. When he got into the NFL, he was overmatched."
Interestingly, Angelo is part of a footnote on that Mamula pick. He was Tampa Bay's director of player personnel at that time. And when the '95 draft began, the Buccaneers owned pick No. 7.
They ultimately parted with it, however, moving back while securing an extra second-round pick from the Eagles.
The Bucs used the 12th pick on defensive tackle Warren Sapp -- who, had it not been for character concerns and rumors of cocaine use, would've been a top-3 pick. Then the Bucs packaged two second-round picks to move back into Round 1 for linebacker Derrick Brooks, drafted 28th.
In a flash, the Bucs had parlayed the seventh pick into two future Hall of Famers who catalyzed a defensive revival and helped propel them to a Super Bowl championship in 2002.
"That draft made us," Angelo said. "It speaks volumes of what special players can do for you."
Special order
Putting the drama of the last eight months aside, the Vikings' 2007 selection of Peterson registers as one of the biggest home runs hit with the seventh pick.
Over his first seven seasons, Peterson rushed for more than 10,000 yards, scored 91 touchdowns, made six Pro Bowls and won the 2012 MVP award.
The Vikings' biggest victory in drafting Peterson? Staying out of their own way and making a calculated decision to procure an elite talent.
From across the division, Angelo appreciated the selection.
"I learned this over time: You never pass on special," Angelo said. "Adrian was a special player. There are only a few special players that come into each draft. It's six or seven guys in a normal draft. That's it. And if you have an opportunity to take one, you do it."
The Vikings would've been justified in passing on Peterson. Running back Chester Taylor was coming off a 1,200-yard rushing season. The team had holes on defense and a major need at quarterback with only Tarvaris Jackson and Brooks Bollinger on the roster. Notre Dame's Brady Quinn, widely touted as a potential franchise quarterback, was available. And Peterson had gone through the pre-draft wringer with questions about his durability after significant ankle and collarbone injuries at Oklahoma.
Yet when the Vikings' decision-makers boiled away the worry, they ultimately agreed Peterson was a true game-changer.
That accord across the organization, Kiper believes, proves crucial to a successful first round.
"First and foremost, you want it be where we're all behind this guy," he said. "I never like it when there's internal debate or a disagreement on a pick or a GM overrides the coaches. I like the pick when everybody knows going in that this is a guy we want."
Pace has gone on record with his philosophy of taking the best player available, regardless of the Bears' depth-chart holes. It's a strategy he'll now have to put into use.
"It can be human nature to want to push up a (player at a) position that you need," Pace said. "And that doesn't happen on draft day. That happens in the process leading into the draft."
The Bears hope they've solidified their preparations to leave little to chance when their moment arrives Thursday night.
A payoff is needed. It's Pace's job to provide it. The dice are now his.
dwiederer@tribpub.com
