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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
National
Editorial

Can Australia dodge world COVID trend of rising cases

COVID vaccines lose their effectiveness over time, evidence shows.

THE good news is that after a slow start - the so-called vaccination "strollout" - Australia has overtaken a number of countries to the point where more than 90 per cent of people over 16 have had one COVID shot, and our overall vaccination rate stands at 70 per cent.

This puts us well ahead of the United States, at 59 per cent, and a percentage point or so in front of the United Kingdom.

Without being overly self-congratulatory, it is something of an achievement, but as the continued rampage of COVID around the world is showing us, the aim of suppressing the virus through vaccination is still a long way off.

That said, the vaccines are doing the job demanded of them, in that the vaccinated are many times less likely to catch the virus than the unvaccinated, who are also making up the bulk of the hospitalisations and deaths from COVID.

At the same time, however, a growing number of studies are providing statistical evidence to show that the ability of the vaccines to provide protection - their efficacy - tends to drop off quite noticeably, and quickly; hence the decision by Australia and other nations to opt for booster shots, starting with the most vulnerable sections of the population.

NETHERLANDS CRISIS: The highest levels of infection in the Netherland are right now, well after the bulk of the country's vaccination effort, as shown in green. Deaths are clearly well down on pre-vaccination rates, but they are rising again also. Picture: Johns Hopkins University

It's a truism that no two countries have had the same COVID experience, but broad trends can be identified nonetheless. International comparisons show the US remains the worst-hit nation, topping both the overall and 28-day totals for both raw case numbers, and deaths.

The UK has the world's second-highest 28-day case total - along with growing acceptance that its July "Freedom Day" reopening was a mistake - although its death rate is well down on the US experience.

Globally, case numbers, and deaths, have risen steadily for the past four weeks, with some countries well up the vaccination table - Singapore and the Netherlands are two examples - facing some of their most challenging circumstances so far.

COVID LATEST:

The unmistakable message for Australia is that tough times lie ahead.

We have been remarkably fortunate so far, but we should prepare ourselves for 2022 to be a continuation of 2021, with masks, vaccine passports and booster shots the order of the day.

And a political debate about rich nations having top-up jabs when poorer countries are struggling to get their first and second.

ISSUE: 39,725

WORSENING WORLD OUTLOOK: The Delta variant of COVID is driving onward, with cases in red rising, and deaths, in white, also increasing, although not as quickly. Vaccination rates have also picked up again recently, but there are no real signs of the virus going away. Picture: Johns Hopkins University
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