Happy new year! Or is it? Having done something approaching its best to cover the Australia-India race row yesterday, the Spin thought it better to spare everyone's blood pressure this morning and, like a purse-lipped maiden aunt, discreetly change the subject. So, while lovers of great sporting dynasties will be raising a glass of impossibly cold lager to Ricky Ponting's impossibly unbeatable Australians - 16 Test wins in a row and, assuming India don't go home, with the chance to break the record at Perth - everyone else will be wondering exactly who, if anyone, is going to challenge them in 2008 and beyond. In alphabetical order, here are the runners, riders, also-rans and England...
Bangladesh: It ain't going to happen any time soon, but before you all split your sides, remember this. Only two teams came close to interrupting the 16-match streak: South Africa, who lost by two wickets at Johannesburg when Australia were chasing 292; and Bangladesh, who reduced a plainly exhausted Australian team to 231 for 6 in pursuit of 307 at Fatullah a few days later. But the Bangladeshis' hammering at Dunedin last week suggests the status quo has been restored, and they will remain at the bottom of the pile for a while yet. Let's talk again in five years' time. Chances out of 10 of ousting the Aussies: 1.
England: Hmm. England have slipped so far since 2005 that there is even nervousness about the prospect of a tour to New Zealand, a team that barely plays Test cricket these days. Since the next Ashes series is only 18 months or so away, this inspires marginally less confidence than the sight of Monty Panesar fielding in the covers. Then again, it might just focus the mind and give Michael Vaughan, assuming he's still in the job, something to aim for. If Panesar can rediscover his touch ... if Stuart Broad is given a decent run ... if Andrew Flintoff ever plays another Test ... if Ian Bell graduates to match-winner. On second thoughts, too many ifs: 2013 it is, then. Chances: 5.
India: They were outclassed at Melbourne and unlucky at Sydney, although Australia's ability to win Tests after conceding first-innings scores of 500+ remains a wonder of the age. And yet, injuries permitting, the ingredients are there: a batting line-up to commit hideous crimes for, nippy left-arm seamers, youthful promise in Ishant Sharma, an all-time-great spin bowler and the only man in world cricket who can legitimately claim to have Ricky Ponting's number. They alone have consistently given Australia a game in the new millennium, but that in turn has piqued the Aussies' competitiveness. Perth will tell us more. Chances: 7.
New Zealand: Alas, the gloriously canny, rain-affected 0-0 draw of 2001-02 - Mark Richardson, Craig McMillan, Nathan Astle, Chris Cairns, Adam Parore: names to conjure with! - feels so old it is a surprise to find the highlights in anything other than black and white. Part of the problem is that New Zealand simply don't play enough five-day cricket to get better: their Dunedin triumph against Bangladesh was their fifth Test since May 2006. But Shane Bond's appalling fitness record - and now his dalliance with the Indian Cricket League - means they will always struggle to bowl the best sides out twice. Little-brother tenaciousness can only take them so far. Chances: 3.
Pakistan: While they were not involved in the 16-match run, the fact remains that Pakistan have lost their last nine Tests to Australia, including one of the worst performances by any team ever: all out for 59 and 53 at Sharjah in 2002-03. And yet their essential unpredictability makes them as decent a bet as any. Mohammad Asif is the world's most languid seamer, and Misbah-ul-Haq is threatening to walk straight into Inzamam's shoes as a crucial member of a middle-order triumvirate that also includes Younis Khan and Mohammad Yousuf. Ifs play a big part, naturally (what, for example, will happen to Shoaib Akhtar in the next two years?), but at least they have a coach, Geoff Lawson, who understands the Australian mentality. If Australia decide to go ahead with their tour of Pakistan, scheduled for March and April, it could be their biggest test since the 2005 Ashes. Chances: 7.
South Africa: If only, Graeme Smith might be thinking, Dale Steyn had been around while Australia were winning five Tests out of six against his side in 2005-06 to kickstart the record-equalling run. Hell, they might even have won a game. The Daryll Cullinan-Shane Warne stand-up routine might be a thing of the past, but South Africa's problems against Australia might still be in the mind as much as anything. And the Aussies still regard South Africa - along with India and England - as one of the three series they most want to win. Dale, over to you. Chances: 6.
Sri Lanka: One of the greatest disappointments of the last 15 years is the failure of Muttiah Muralitharan to do to Australia what he has done to everyone else. His recent series haul of 4 for 400 down under summed things up. Without his input, they have stood little chance, for all the genius of Kumar Sangakkara's 192 at Hobart in November. The batting has enough flair, and the seam bowling is getting much better very quickly, but Murali has to break Australia's psychological half-nelson if things are to change. Chances: 6.
West Indies: If only. Until India briefly threatened Ponting's hegemony at the start of the millennium, the last bout of heavyweight clashes involved West Indies and Australia in the early-to-mid 1990s. These days, the umpires are more likely to stop the fight. Was West Indies' victory at Port Elizabeth a glorious aberration? If so, they can forget about doing anything other than overtaking New Zealand in the Test rankings. Chances: 2.
And not even a mention of Harbhajan Singh or Andrew Symonds ...
Extract taken from The Spin, Guardian Unlimited's weekly look at the world of cricket. Subscribe now - it's free
