“Why is everyone that I talk to in the ad industry trying to get out of it?”
A friend of mine – and a rather young chief executive of a successful tech company – asked me recently. Lately, everyone seems to be wondering not what’s next, but where to go next.
“Software is eating the world” as Andreessen Horowitz, arguably the most influential venture capital firm in Silicon Valley, claims on their website. By 2020, not only will 80% of the global population be able to access the internet using smartphones, 85% of customers will manage their relationships without ever talking to a human (pdf).
We now live in a world where not only will drones deliver products before you know you want them, they will follow you and take selfies for you. Mobile devices and connected objects are getting so smart that they will soon do anything you ask. Eventually, we will be connected through our minds, shifting the world from an internet to a brain-net, as predicted by Dr Michio Kaku.
What’s next is already here. So where do we go from here? The three principles that will drive success for brands in the next five years are: insight, interface and intelligence.
Insight: where we are going
In the last two decades, the number of internet users have grown over 25 times from 120.7m in 1997 to 3.1bn users in 2014. Conversely, in the same time span, the average number of users per website decreased from 108 to three. The more we become connected, the more we become fragmented.
This isn’t just about media. We are seeing a rapid fragmentation of culture as well. By 2020, there will be no mass culture, no common denominators. Diversity will be universal.
What to do: target the 5%
In the past, casting a wide net in the hope of converting some consumers to take action worked. The infamous purchase funnel model of awareness, interest, desire and action was the bible for many marketers. But this model was created in 1898.
The way we move and interact in today’s connected world is much like flocks of birds. In a flock, there is no leader or front. It’s completely autonomous, all individuals capable and willing to make their own decisions, just like flocks of users connected via the internet.
The fascinating insight about a flock of birds is that it only takes 5% to change the flock’s direction. In today’s connected world, if you can target the right 5% – those that have enough connection, influence and reach – and get them to take action, it will create desire and interest, which will lead to a wider level of awareness.
For instance, with the successful ice bucket challenge from last year, there was no mass media. It started from a single family and their message reached a few celebrities with reach and influence. The mechanism of the idea relied on their connections and beyond. The rest is history.
Instead of trying to reach 100%, target the 5%. Flip the funnel metaphor on its head.
Interface: where we are going
For companies spawned in the last decade or two, the primary touchpoint now lives on some type of screen. Google’s most recognisable touchpoint is the search bar. With Uber, it’s the pin on a map with a time. The most coveted place for any brand is being an icon on the home screen of everyone’s mobile device. The interface, not the message, is now the brand.
Increasingly, the interface is becoming invisible. Whether it’s Siri from Apple, Google Voice – or Samantha, the voice-enabled operating service in the movie Her –the input is shifting from physical to audio and eventually to cognitive.
Regardless of the form, if your interface isn’t simple, intuitive and addictive, your relevancy will quickly diminish.
What to do: simplify
Whether your interface is visible or not, there is one universal law of simplicity: the simple will displace the complex.
Every new service and product in history displaced the previous one by taking the pain out of a certain process and removing the friction.
For instance, for centuries the basic means of currency transaction was carried out through coins and notes. Credit cards removed the pain of having to carry cash – until mobile payment came along. A service such as Uber removed the burden of having to call a car service and having to take out not only cash but your credit card to pay. It simplified the process by taking two pain points out of the process.
Intelligence: where we are going
Earlier this year, the New York Times published a simple quiz asking Did a Human or Computer Write This? revealing that “a shocking amount of what we’re reading is created not by humans, but by computer algorithms.”
Last year, a venture capital firm appointed a computer algorithm to its board of directors.
Algorithms used to be behind the scenes. Now, they are becoming consumer-facing and in many cases, better than humans – even at composing music.
In 2020, it’s not inconceivable that one of the decision makers in your organisation could be artificially intelligent. We are now entering the age of AI.
What to do: machines will beat humans, but machines and humans will beat both
In 2009, Netflix, famously issued a challenge to the engineering world to solve the recommendation engine dilemma: can machines learn our taste in movies?
The answer was yes and our queues are now filled with films and shows that we didn’t even know we’d like.
Netflix is now leveraging what machines learn about us in order to create content that is a guaranteed success. By the time Netflix approached Kevin Spacey to create House of Cards, Netflix was so confident it would succeed that it skipped creating a pilot at all.
By 2020, a good experience for humans will be prescribed by machines. The great experience will be delivered – and even created – by machines working with humans.
The reason why everyone in the ad industry is trying to get out of it is simple: it’s become more difficult than it used to be. We now have to do more with less. Less money, less people, less time.
But running away from it isn’t going to help. “You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today,” said Abraham Lincoln.
In the next five years, by focusing on the right 5%, simplifying the interface between your brand and customers, and working with and learning from machines, it’ll help us not just imagine but create the future of whatever industry one might be in.
Rei Inamoto is the chief creative officer at AKQA. You can follow him @reiinamoto
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