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Motorsport

Can Abu Dhabi deliver the 2025 title finale that F1 deserves?

Max Verstappen Lando Norris Oscar Piastri Yuki Tsunoda Abu Dhabi McLaren Andrea Stella Lewis Hamilton F1 Yas Marina

The Yas Marina circuit may not be the most exciting race track of Formula 1's 24-race calendar, but as the stage for F1's first three-way thriller in 15 years there are enough scenarios for Abu Dhabi to live up to its dramatic reputation.

On paper, the signs aren't too promising. The last 10 editions of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix have been won from pole, with the second-placed qualifier finishing in the same position six times.

McLaren may be expected to have a slight edge on race pace, based on FP2 at least, but one would be brave to bet against polesitter Max Verstappen doing anything other than cruising to the win, his eighth of the 2025 season that would lift him above title rivals Lando Norris (second) and Oscar Piastri (third).

But it will take a lot more than a straightforward cruise for the four-time world champion to add a fifth title to his tally, and all eyes will now be on McLaren to deliver under pressure after scoring two huge own-goals – a double disqualification in Las Vegas and a botched strategy call in Qatar.

So far, Norris has done his part. The championship leader delivered on the final lap of Q3 to climb from fourth to second on the grid. All that separates him from a maiden world title is a clean race to a podium.

The Turn 1 factor

It means Norris' approach at Turn 1 will likely be to try and hold station and ensure he has a good exit, rather than make an ill-judged lunge to snatch the lead away from Verstappen.

"I think from Lando's point of view, considering the inside in corner one, I think he will just be relatively prudent," McLaren team boss Andrea Stella explained. "It's one of those where from the inside not necessarily you get the better exit, the car on the outside can close, so I think there will be some prudence, which is I think what I would recommend.”

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing Team (Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images)

Turn 1 is rather awkward, because diving up the inside leaves cars in poor shape for the run towards the Esses. In addition, the racing line runs diagonally across the start-finish straight, so there is no clear 50/50 split in grip levels between both sides of the grid.

Last year's start clash between Verstappen and Piastri is a warning that Turn 1 may well be the biggest hazard for Norris to overcome, while Piastri will be in two minds about trying to swoop into the lead and not be overly aggressive towards his team-mate – the oft-misunderstood papaya rules and all.

Strategy games

Let's assume for a second that Turn 1 goes without a hitch – a big assumption – and the top three cross the finish line on Lap 2 in the order they started. What are Yas Marina's options of providing a spectacle befitting of a title finale?

The circuit doesn't exactly have a rich history of overtaking. The ghosts of 2010 are still haunting Stella, when he was in Fernando Alonso's corner while the Ferrari man was stuck in traffic – Vitaly Petrov sends his regards – and Sebastian Vettel took his maiden world title without ever having led the championship.

Facing a similar situation as Verstappen today, Lewis Hamilton attempted to back Nico Rosberg into the chasing pack in 2016, needing rivals to put some distance between the two for Hamilton to prevail. It didn't happen.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal (Photo by: Mark Thompson / Getty Images)

Verstappen is expected to at least consider doing the same, as clearing off and giving Norris an easy path to second is no good for the Dutchman, who could succeed Vettel as the next driver to triumph without leading the championship before the finale.

But as the Red Bull man points out, Yas Marina has since undergone layout changes that make overtaking slightly easier.

"Let's see what we can do. Of course, I'll try to win the race, but also in the back of my mind, we want to try and score a lot of points to still try and win that championship. So, we need a bit of luck from what is happening behind us," Verstappen said.

"[But 2016] was also a different layout. I feel like now you get towed around a lot more around the lap, so it’s probably not as easy to do something like that. Cars also are completely different to back then. I hope it’s not straightforward, the race – but hopefully that’s not because of me!"

The annoying reality is that, as is often the case, the grand prix will likely devolve into to a tyre management race on Yas Marina's low-grip circuit, with the need to keep track position making a one-stopper by far the best choice.

Andrea Stella, McLaren (Photo by: Altaf Qadri / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

And even if graining fears on Pirelli's harder race tyre compounds are likely overblown, Stella expects Verstappen may well have to modulate his pace to keep his tyre alive rather than anything more tactical. McLaren has kept two sets of hard tyres for both of its drivers should it have to switch to a two-stop, while Verstappen has two mediums instead.

"In terms of how the race will unfold, there may be reasons to control the pace even from a tyre point of view, not necessarily because of some strategic reason for the lead car. So definitely, we will see some pace control and it will be interesting to see whether the tyre degradation means that the race will be more on a one- or a two-stop. I think this is a bit of an open question."

If Verstappen does keep the field compact, that may well impact McLaren's ability to undercut him by pitting earlier, as a bunched up field would make it more likely for Norris to pit into traffic, the same mistake Alonso made in 2010 to cover Mark Webber.

A helping hand

In 2021's dramatic decider, Verstappen received a helping hand from team-mate Sergio Perez to keep Hamilton at bay. Can Verstappen's current wingman Yuki Tsunoda, on his last hurrah before moving to the reserve bench, finally do his bit after being too far adrift for most of the season? Tsunoda was happy to sacrifice his first Q3 run to give the Dutchman a tow, and said he would be happy to help where possible, for example by extending his first stint.

"I'll do as much as I can to help him," Tsunoda said. "Most likely, it would probably compromise my strategy, but with his position, how he ended up, there's still a chance to get a championship. So, I'll do as much as I can. Let's see."

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing (Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images)

Verstappen will also need some help from an unlikely ally, George Russell, who would need to position himself between the leading Red Bull and Norris.

"Honestly, I think I'm just going to treat it like any other race," Russell told Sky. "If there's an opportunity and if there's a gap, if this was race one of the season... I wouldn't be aiming to do anything reckless, but I'm not going to leave opportunities on the table.

"I also want to finish the season on the high and I've got to be honest, I won't sleep better or worse no matter who wins the championship tomorrow. So, I'll be doing my own thing and go from there."

With the three title protagonists all qualifying in the top three, the stage couldn't be set any better for another dramatic conclusion to 2025's gruelling season. And while perhaps Yas Marina just isn't the right kind of circuit for an action-packed finale, the circuit's last title battles show it has a knack for delivering drama, even when you least expect it.

A worthy winner?

Who would deserve it more? There is little doubt that Verstappen is the driver of the season, with how he managed to stay in the title fight in the intrinsically slower car, and helped Red Bull get out of a set-up rut in the middle part of the season.

Meanwhile, Norris has shown great personal growth to bounce back from a difficult spell and become a worthy title contender, and Piastri has demonstrated he can go toe-to-toe with his peers despite only being in his third F1 season. It's a moot question, whoever wins the title on Sunday night won't have stolen it.

Can Norris and McLaren stay cool one last time, can Piastri spring a surprise, or will the inevitable Verstappen find a way to crown a majestic 2025 season with his finest achievement yet?