David Cameron’s legislative programme may struggle to get through parliament following the vote to leave the EU, an analysis by a Whitehall thinktank has found.
The prime minister’s programme, which was restricted by campaigning in the run-up to the referendum, has now virtually ground to a halt amid the Conservative leadership race to replace him. Ministers who are supposed to be implementing new laws are instead focused on their future careers.
As a result, the government’s ambitious programme which was meant to reduce the deficit and radically reform public services is in a state of flux.
Emma Norris, a programme director at the Institute for Government, pointed out that the government had so far been able to introduce just six out of 20 of the legislative bills outlined in the 2016 Queen’s speech.
She said: “I think Brexit is going to create uncertainty and delay for a range of existing government plans. Some of the decisions you are going to see being delayed are those whose political champions are being otherwise distracted by leadership contests.
“Other tough political decisions are being delayed until there is a new prime minister, such as the third runway [at Heathrow], and then there is the resulting economic uncertainty of a Brexit which is causing jitters for some planned infrastructure projects.”
Aspokeswoman for the Cabinet Office insisted that the legislative programme would be delivered. “We are elected with a decisive mandate to implement a manifesto and we are getting on with the important job of delivering just that,” she said.
Here is a rundown of legislation that is thought to be on hold or is facing an uncertain future:
• Extra runway capacity in south-east England. A decision was due in July on whether the government would stick with plans to build a third runway at Heathrow. This has been delayed until the autumn at the earliest, according to Patrick McLoughlin, the transport secretary.
• HS2. Construction of the rail ink between London, Manchester and Leeds was meant to begin in 2017. Whitehall sources have said the £50bn project could be delayed or even shelved following the vote for Brexit.
• Health and work programme. The process of contracting for a new programme to replace the work programme and work choice (the Department for Work and Pensions’ specialist disability employment programme) was to begin in July. Providers have been told that it will not begin before August.
• Sugar tax. Was supposed to be introduced via the finance bill in 2017. It is not clear whether this will happen now.
• Education white paper on higher education reform. This might be put on hold, according to government sources.
• The cost recovery bill . Intended to recover the cost of NHS care from non-EEA nationals, it might not go ahead, according to health sources.
• “Life chances strategy”. Led by the DWP, this was supposed to improve opportunities for the most disadvantaged through the early years, with policies around childcare, school, universities and the workplace. Reports suggest that this might now be altered.
• Hinkley Point C. The proposed new nuclear power station, with estimated costs ballooning to £37bn, could be put on hold, according to reports. Well-placed sources in energy firm EDF have told the Guardian that the already divided board which must make that decision is in danger of fracturing further as former supporters of the project worry about Brexit.
• Measures to modernised the UK economy. The Queen’s speech in May also set out a range of measures, including legislation to enable the development of commercial spaceports; allow Britain to pioneer driverless cars; and spread the use of drones by businesses and individuals, as well as a legal right to fast broadband connections for every household. These measures are also on hold.
• Local government finance. The spending review in November announced plans for changes, with central government funding cut and local authorities able to retain 100% of business rates. The timetable for the consultation on these changes, which must happen before legislation is passed, is now unclear.
