Aidan O’Brien has trained eight winners at the Breeders’ Cup, a total which compares well with the record of many of the top names in American racing, including Todd Pletcher, who has seven, and the veteran Bill Mott, with nine. When you consider, too, that most of O’Brien’s horses are bred for turf rather than the dirt on which the majority of the meeting’s 13 events are staged, his overall return stands comparison with any of his American counterparts.
Yet O’Brien has saddled nearly 100 runners at the meeting, too, which also needs to be borne in mind before the first day of the 32nd Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland on Friday. O’Brien will send out the likely favourite for both of the two races on grass, the Juvenile Turf and the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, but these races are fiercely competitive and it will be a remarkable achievement, even by O’Brien’s standards, if he can record a double.
Monday’s draw for post positions did not improve his chances either, as Hit It A Bomb, the mount of Ryan Moore and apparently his main hope for the Juvenile Turf, ended up in stall 14 of 14. Hit It A Bomb is an obvious contender on his unbeaten form in two starts to date but, even with Moore doing the steering, he will still need plenty of luck in running.
A price of around 4-1 looks short enough in the circumstances and, since John Gosden’s Cymric, the runner-up in a Group One on Arc day last time, has also drawn a wide stall, the European challenge for the race may not be as strong as it first appears.
Mark Casse’s Airoforce is one possibility, as he was a comfortable winner over course and distance last time, but he also enjoyed an ideal trip at the front of the field. Camelot Kitten (7.30), though, had anything but, yet still finished very strongly from a long way off the pace to take second place. He, too, has a double-figure stall, but it should at least suit his running style and he could be the value bet in the race at around 16-1.
Alice Springs, O’Brien’s runner in the Juvenile Fillies’ Turf, has a more promising pitch in stall three and, while she has had plenty of racing for a juvenile, her form behind her stablemates Minding and Ballydoyle in a Group One at The Curragh last month is as strong as anything her opponents can muster. Harmonize, who made a big move around the turn on the way to victory in the Jessamine Stakes last time, is probably the best of the locals, but Alice Springs (8.50) could well be O’Brien’s ninth Breeders’ Cup winner.
Ireland’s champion trainer also has a runner in the Dirt Mile in War Envoy, who does at least have a pedigree that suggests he will be at home on the surface. He put up a big performance to win the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 104 but the balance of his form implies that he has several pounds to find to be competitive.
Even if War Envoy does handle the dirt well, it will be a real surprise if he is good enough to beat Liam’s Map (8.10), who needs only to reproduce his front-running success in the Woodward Stakes last time out to win with something to spare.
Wedding Toast, who also likes to race up with the pace, is the likely favourite for the Distaff, the feature race on the card. Kiaran McLaughlin’s filly, who runs for the US arm of Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin operation, finished nearly three lengths clear at the end of the Grade One Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park last time and rightly heads the market at around 5-2 with British bookies, but she enjoyed a soft lead there and is unlikely to find it anything like as easy to dominate here.
Yahilwa and Calamity Kate are among those likely to take her on, which could set the race up for the closer Got Lucky (9.35). Todd Pletcher’s filly finished fast and late to take the Grade One Spinster Stakes over today’s course and distance just under four weeks ago and should get the strong pace she needs again today.
