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Josh Williams

Callum Wilson's Newcastle United void captured ahead of injury return

Newcastle United are edging ever closer to the relegation zone of late, with Steve Bruce struggling to boost his team's attacking form in particular over the most few weeks.

The Magpies have scored a total of three goals in their last six games, with that barren run unsurprisingly coinciding with Callum Wilson's unfortunate hamstring injury.

The English striker went off against Southampton with a problem that was set to rule him out for six to eight weeks, and given that United have played six times since that date, the numbers can inform how they have changed in his absence.

Before Wilson's setback, Bruce's outfit were averaging roughly 1.1 goals per game in the Premier League compared to the 0.5 per game they have posted since.

Strangely, United's number of shots taken has actually increased by a small margin from 9.5 per match before Wilson's injury to 10.5 across their past six games, and that includes tricky bouts against Chelsea and Manchester United.

However, despite the additional shot being posted per match, the clear-cut nature of those efforts has largely worsened and that can be indicated using Expected Goals.

Expected Goals offers an insight into the probability of an effort being scored by considering aspects such as shot location and the body part used to take the shot, and it tends to provide a fairly accurate summary of how many goals a team would have bagged if average finishing had been showcased.

According to the metric, the Magpies averaged shots worth around 0.8 non-penalty goals per match before Wilson's injury, compared to 0.7 per match since he's been on the treatment table.

That essentially means Bruce's side are shooting slightly more often, but the shots are worth less and that is probably because they are originating from worse locations.

United's number of completed through balls and passes into the penalty box per match have also declined slightly without Wilson on the pitch, although the average number of touches in the box per match has largely remained unchanged.

The overwhelming positive is that the 29 year-old looks set to return once the international break ends; he will have nine games to ensure that United remain in the Premier League next season, with Fulham to face on the last day.

He will certainly have an impact once he's reintegrated, but the quiet concern will be that even with him in Bruce's team, United's general performance numbers leave a lot to be desired.

United simply have to improve ahead of the final stretch of the campaign, and that is much more likely to happen with Wilson leading the line.

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