The California Senate race, initially anticipated as a three-way Democratic contest, is now witnessing a potential upset due to a record-low voter turnout. Former baseball star and Republican candidate Steve Garvey's chances have been bolstered by the sluggish return of mail-in ballots, primarily from older, white, conservative-leaning voters. This trend has raised concerns for prominent progressives Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee, and Katie Porter.
Despite Schiff's fundraising and polling advantages, Garvey's rise has posed a threat to the political futures of Lee and Porter. The top two candidates from the March 5 primary will advance to the general election in November, setting the stage for a critical showdown in the liberal-leaning state.
The lackluster voter engagement in this election cycle, typically driven by presidential contests, has created an electorate that skews older, more conservative, and predominantly white. This demographic shift could potentially benefit Garvey as Democratic candidates split votes on the left.
The race, once expected to showcase Democratic rivalries, has pivoted towards a more competitive landscape with Garvey's entry. Despite being a Republican stronghold, California has not elected a Republican senator since 1988, with Democrats holding a significant voter registration advantage.
The campaign dynamics have been marked by strategic advertising tactics, with Schiff leveraging his fundraising prowess to maintain a substantial advertising advantage over his rivals. Porter has criticized Schiff for allegedly spotlighting Garvey in ads to sway Republican voters, while Lee has faced fundraising challenges, impacting her polling numbers.
As the primary voting phase unfolds, the race remains fluid, with the outcome hinging on voter turnout and candidate strategies. While Schiff, Lee, and Porter each bring unique perspectives and policy platforms to the race, the financial and advertising advantages enjoyed by Schiff could prove decisive in determining the ultimate victor.
With the California Senate race attracting national attention, the final results are eagerly awaited to see which candidate emerges victorious in this closely contested battle for a six-year term in the Senate.
