SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Maria Elena Sepulveda doesn’t know how she’ll vote in California’s upcoming gubernatorial recall election.
The Sacramento homemaker is certain of one thing: No gubernatorial candidate in the crowded race has done enough to earn the vote on people like her.
“I honestly haven’t decided if I’m going to vote one way or the other,” said Sepulveda, 39.
California is home to 15 million Latinos, who account for about 40% of the state population.
The state’s Democratic Party has long been their preferred party. One analysis by the Public Policy Institute of California shows the majority, or 58%, of Latinos in the state are Democrats, compared with 16% who are Republican.
They have also been hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic. Latino Californians represent 54.3% of the state’s reported COVID-19 cases and 46.2% of virus-related deaths, according to state public health data.
Now, as the pandemic still rages, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom needs them to turn out for him if he is to survive the Sept. 14 election, making them a closely watched group as ballots are returned.
“The Latino population in the state of California has grown,” said Assemblyman Robert Rivas, D-Hollister, vice chair of the California Latino Legislative Caucus. “So, when it comes to this upcoming recall election, the Latino vote is going to be significant and, in my opinion, it will determine whether our governor is recalled or not.”
Latino voters have never voted strictly along party lines.
“We’re not a monolithic group,” said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy. “Latino communities have a long history in California of being split politically.”
Exit polling in 2018 showed Latino voters broke for Newsom, 64% to 35%.
Recent statewide polls, however, indicate less support for the Democratic governor this time.
A poll from UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released in late June showed that 56% of likely Latino voters would vote to keep Newsom in office, while 40% said they would vote to remove him.
Another poll conducted by Univision in August found that Latinos have a lower awareness of the recall election than non-Hispanics, 77% vs. 83%, respectively.
That survey showed 47% of likely Latino voters would vote to retain Newsom in office, compared to 36% who want him removed. High taxation and the state’s homeless problems topped the list of reasons for those supporting the recall. About 18% remained undecided, according to the poll.
“Latinos are notoriously late deciders,” said Mike Madrid, co-founder of The Lincoln Project and expert on Latino voting trends. “You’re going to see a very strong late flurry of ballots coming from Latino precincts in the last seven to 10 days.”
The health crisis, the pandemic-induced economic downturn and state’s burgeoning wildfires, have also devastated Latino communities, Romero said.
“They have felt the impact of COVID and, for some, it means that they want to see the governor removed,” she said. “But I think the larger electorate ... aren’t following this election and are still wondering if their vote matters. I think for the Latino community, (Newsom) has some work to do to get that word out.”
Monica Madrid, of Elk Grove, who works at a nonprofit community organization, plans to vote no on the recall. She cited Newom’s eviction moratorium and recent expansion of Medi-Cal coverage for undocumented adults and seniors over 50, as reasons she will vote to keep him in office.
“That’s huge during the pandemic. If they don’t have access to health care during a pandemic, they’re going to die,” she said. “I don’t think that anybody else is really going to help the Latino community as much as Newsom. I don’t think he’s perfect, but he’s the best option we have right now.”
Sepulveda was hard-pressed to say what Newsom has done for her.
“What has he done for the Latino community? she asked. “What benefits have been made available to the Latino community?”
Her sense of neglect was echoed by Ruben Navarrette, a syndicated columnist with The Washington Post Writers Group, who identifies as a Mexican-American centrist
He voted for Newsom in 2018. He’s now encouraging others to vote yes on the recall, critiquing Newsom’s response to the pandemic, the shutdown of public schools and what he called the state’s “lax” vaccine distribution.
“He never bonded with Latinos, taking for granted the support of the largest and most important ethnic group in the state,” he wrote in a column published last week.
In Newsom’s corner is actor and comedian George Lopez, who posted his support for the governor on Instagram in English and Spanish. “Yo me quedo con Gov. Newsom y voy a votar no. I’m sticking with Gavin Newsom, and I’m voting no,” he said.
Newsom in early August launched a Spanish-language ad against the recall featuring California Sen. Alex Padilla, whom Newsom appointed as California’s first Latino U.S. senator.
Republican candidates have countered with Spanish-language advertising of their own.
Larry Elder, the Republican frontrunner in the recall race, released an ad featuring an endorsement from former California Senate Majority Leader Gloria Romero. The two share strong support for letting parents choose between public schools and charter schools.
In the 30-second ad, Romero criticized Newsom’s decision to close down schools and churches during the health emergency.
“Yes, I’m a Democrat,” Romero says in the ad. “But the recall of Gavin Newsom isn’t about political partisanship. It’s about Newsom. I support Larry Elder for governor.”
Christian Arana, vice president of policy at the Latino Community Foundation, said it’s not enough for Democrats and Republicans to attract voters through Spanish-language ads.
“Half of the Latino electorate in California is young ... and not all of us speak Spanish,” he said.
During last year’s presidential election, the number of Latino voters casting their ballots reached historic levels nationwide. In California, Latino voters accounted for 24% of the vote, up one percent from 2016, according to a study by the Center for Inclusive Democracy. In California, Latinos make up 30.5% of eligible voters.
For years, political strategists have called rage an effective motivator for Latino voters to become civically engaged, particularly during the Trump era and in the 1990s when former California Gov. Pete Wilson sought bar undocumented immigrants from using public services through Proposition 187.
Luis Alvarado, a Republican political strategist, said that is changing.
“They either show up or don’t. And when they show up, it’s no longer because it’s a message of revenge or retribution, it’s because we’ve graduated and we pay attention to the issues,” he said.
Voto Latino, a grassroots civic engagement organization, is putting $1 million toward attracting 600,000 young Latinos to vote no on the recall.
After polls showed potential slippage in support, the California Latino Legislative Caucus over the summer coalesced around Newsom, urging them to reject what they deem a Republican recall “power grab.”
The level of turnout among Latino voters in this recall election, however, remains to be seen.
Mike Madrid, the voting trends expert, said the Latino electorate often doesn’t match their share of the population size, particularly during special elections.
“A high Latino turnout will help Gavin Newsom,” Madrid said. “The problem is he’s not likely to have high Latino turnout.”
