LOS ANGELES — More Californians than ever are now being infected by and hospitalized with the coronavirus as the pandemic continues its relentless march across the state.
Over the last week, the state has averaged 17,007 new cases per day, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times. That's a 61.6% increase from two weeks ago, and dwarfs even the darkest days of the summertime surge, when the rolling average never topped 10,000.
To put that number into perspective, 119,050 Californians have tested positive for the coronavirus in just the past seven days — almost the equivalent of everyone living in the city of Berkeley being infected.
The state reported 21,185 new cases on Thursday alone, the second-highest figure ever for a single day. The record, 21,848, was set Monday — though that number was inflated somewhat by reporting delays over the Thanksgiving weekend.
The unprecedented case counts aren't merely a byproduct of ramped-up testing, either. The average rate at which coronavirus tests are coming back positive has also soared recently, from 5.2% two weeks ago to 7.7%.
With case numbers that are historically high and show no signs of relenting, California officials are turning their eyes toward the state's hospital system, which they've long warned is at risk of being flooded by a wave of coronavirus patients.
Statewide, 8,831 Californians were hospitalized with a confirmed case as of Wednesday — an all-time high and nearly double the number seen two weeks ago. There are also more coronavirus-positive patients in intensive care, 2,066, than ever before.
"The bottom line is if we don't act now, our hospital system will be overwhelmed," Gov. Gavin Newsom said Thursday. "If we don't act now, we'll continue to see a death rate climb, more lives lost."
After a months-long slide, the number of Californians dying from COVID-19 has started to climb in recent weeks.
California reported 148 additional deaths Thursday — the highest-single day total since Sept. 29, Times' data show.
The state has also seen more than 100 confirmed COVID-19 fatalities on each of the last three days. That hasn't happened since early September.
Over the last week, the state has averaged 81 deaths per day.
More than 19,600 Californians have died from COVID-19 throughout the pandemic, and should the current rate continue, the total death toll would surpass 20,000 by early next week.
"This is the most challenging moment since the beginning of this pandemic," Newsom said. "This is the time ... to put aside your doubt, to put aside your skepticism, to put aside your cynicism, to put aside your ideology, to put aside any consideration except this: Lives are in the balance. Lives will be lost unless we do more than we've ever done."
Faced with COVID-19's relentless acceleration, the state on Thursday pulled an emergency brake — announcing new and far-reaching restrictions tied to regional strains on critical care services.
For purposes of the new statewide order, officials carved California into five regions: Southern California, the San Joaquin Valley, the Bay Area, the Greater Sacramento area and rural Northern California.
Additional restrictions — such as closing hair and nail salons, playgrounds, zoos, museums, aquariums and wineries; and requiring restaurants to return to takeout service only — would be implemented when a region's intensive care unit capacity falls below 15%.
The new stay-at-home order takes effect Saturday, and the earliest it would be imposed is Sunday.
So far, none of the regions have dipped below the state-set threshold — though officials have said they expect all of them will do so soon.
"Based on what I have understood to be the case to this point in time, the anticipation is that threshold might be reached at some point early next week," Dr. Christina Ghaly, L.A. County's director of health services, said during a briefing Thursday.
Clouding the metric somewhat is that ICU capacity is not a static number, as hospitals can increase their available beds to a point should the need arise.
"I think we still need to understand the detail about how exactly they're defining that," Ghaly said.
Like the state, L.A. County is contending with unprecedented numbers of new infections and hospitalizations.
The county set records for both Thursday — reporting an all-time-daily high of 7,713 new cases and 2,668 patients with a confirmed case in its hospitals.
The latest state mandate has been met with consternation in some corners and controversy in others.
Some have questioned the regional approach — saying it doesn't make sense to potentially drop the hammer on one county because of its neighbors' circumstances. Others have dismissed the restrictions themselves as arbitrary and unscientific.
"The governor has been clamping down on our residents' ability to provide for themselves and their families for weeks, with no evidence it has slowed the spread," Michelle Steel, chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors, said in a statement Friday. "The evidence we have seen is more depression, more closed businesses and less work for those who need it most."
Steel, who was recently elected to Congress, added that "the governor and state health officials should focus on protecting the most vulnerable in our communities and stop these sweeping orders that harm all of us."
L.A. County Supervisor Hilda Solis, on the other hand, commended Newsom "for taking this difficult but necessary measure so we can bend the curve of COVID-19 once again, and perhaps for the last time."
"The transmission of COVID-19 is not limited to the borders of our county, and is killing people across the state and country at a terrible pace," she said in a statement. "Although we are more physically distanced now than in years past, we can come together as Californians to guard the health of our neighbors."
Newsom also expressed hope that this new shutdown would be the final time such measures prove necessary, particularly with the state expecting to receive its initial shipment of COVID-19 vaccines in a matter of weeks.
In the meantime, experts and officials urge residents to take steps to keep themselves and their loves ones from being infected — including wearing masks in public, regularly washing their hands and staying home as much as possible; as well as keeping physical distance from, and avoiding gatherings with, those they do not live with.
"We will get through this. This is the final surge," Newsom said. "We have a light at the end of the tunnel with these vaccines, but we need to take seriously this moment."
