SACRAMENTO, Calif. _ Bernie Sanders has surged to the top of the polls in California, overtaking Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren with the March 3 primary rapidly approaching.
No matter how well he does statewide, however, the majority of the state's 494 delegates will be awarded at the local level.
That's why his campaign is thinking creatively, holding unconventional events in unusual places to drive turnout. His team has talked over tamales with Latino voters, held organizing sessions with Filipino Americans and conducted a press conference in Cantonese.
California is home to one-tenth of the nation's delegates, giving the Golden State an outsized role in selecting the Democratic nominee.
Yet what happens in the state's 53 individual congressional districts will determine how most delegates are awarded, leading candidates to adopt strategies aimed at specific regions or demographic groups.
After all, said U.S. Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif., "California could be six states."
Presidential candidates can pick up delegates by getting at least 15% support across the entire state. They can also woo party leaders behind the scenes to secure their support in a potential contested convention. But the biggest slice of delegates will be calculated one congressional district at a time.
Even if Sanders wins statewide, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden or other candidates could still rack up delegates by gaining at least 15% in the districts.
"If the ultimate outcome of the district voting is that the candidates share the spoils relatively evenly, I don't know how you could come into California and say you conquered the vote," said Darry Sragow, who has served as campaign manager for five statewide races in California.
In Sanders' case, the campaign is cultivating support from voters who typically don't typically cast ballots, an approach that could help him avoid a potential three-way delegate tie. His effort is more wide-ranging than other candidates on the ballot.
Rafael Navar, Sanders' California state director, said the campaign regularly hosts "barnstorming" sessions to help develop a "cultural relevancy" in diverse communities.
At these events, campaign staff members encourage organizers, volunteers and potential supporters to generate their own ideas about how to best engage potential voters who have not been reached out to in previous elections. Traditional house parties, door knocking and phone banking efforts are another priority.
The campaign has also opened offices in places like Bakersfield, Visalia and Oxnard _ a 210,000-person coastal city near Los Angeles whose population is 74% Latino.
"We've built operations in areas that are normally neglected by a statewide campaign," Navar said. "You traditionally don't have this level of focus with Latinos. ... Maybe you translate some material in Spanish and it's not really relevant. What we're gonna see and show in California is because we integrated at the beginning, Latinos are gonna come out for the senator."
Other candidates are banking on voters in their strongest demographic groups that can be counted on to participate.
Biden polls particularly well with older black voters. Sragow says that means he would be best served visiting or placing a lot of campaign resources in Rep. Barbara Lee's district in Oakland and the districts of Rep. Nanette Barragan and Rep. Maxine Waters in the southern part of Los Angeles.
California's 40th Congressional District, currently represented by Los Angeles Democrat Lucille Roybal-Allard, has the largest share of Latinos in the nation, according to data from the American Community Survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Latinos also account for 80% of the district's voting age population and 75% of its 2016 primary voters. It also has a sizable youth population, which could play well for Sanders.
Mindy Romero, director of the California Civic Engagement Project at USC, said the district will be a key area for candidates vying for the Latino vote.
She added that campaigns must also focus on winning over Asian voters in California.
"Both Latinos and Asian Americans are going to have an impact on this primary," Romero said. "Any presidential campaign that doesn't pay attention to both electorates is going to be at a disadvantage."
Warren polls best in California with liberal, more educated, more affluent white women. Parts of the San Francisco Peninsula and the west side of the Los Angeles Basin could prove key for her, Sragow said.
Buttigieg is on the outside looking in, trailing the top three candidates statewide. Still, he's the next most likely to cross the 15% threshold needed to pick up district-level delegates.
A statewide Berkeley IGS poll of likely Democratic primary voters in California showed him at 7%, while a poll from the Public Policy Institute of California had Buttigieg at 6%. Both surveys were conducted in January.
Yet victory could mean many different things in a state as expansive as California.
It will likely take a few weeks for California to count the couple million ballots expected to be outstanding after Election Night. A little more than half of the ballots are expected to come in on March 3, with the complete results certified a month later.
As a result, it's entirely possible that the candidate who does best in early voting is considered "the winner" in the national news, even if the math adds up differently when the final votes are tallied, said Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data.
"Whoever is on top (the night of or day after the election) will get the benefit of momentum going into the rest of the March early primary states," Mitchell said.
