The Fever is coming down on Caitlin Clark, and so are her WNBA MVP chances on prediction markets. Markets show a negative trend in Clark’s MVP chances over the last month despite her strong play.
Clark is putting up MVP-caliber numbers to start the season at 20.4 points, 8.3 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. Her scoring and assist totals rank top-5 in the WNBA. The real slide stems from A’ja Wilson’s scorching start.
WNBA MVP Winner - Kalshi
- A’ja Wilson 70%
- Paige Bueckers 12%
- Caitlin Clark 6%
At 6% on Kalshi’s WNBA market, Clark is a massive MVP underdog, and a $10 trade would profit $138.79 if she won. Compare that to Wilson, at 70%, who would give a profit of $3.43 on a $10 trade.
Wilson holding Clark back
While many view Clark’s numbers as MVP-worthy, Wilson is simply outplaying her and averaging 26.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 blocks, and 1.4 steals per game. That's all while leading the Las Vegas Aces to the second-best record in the league.
MVP voters weigh team records heavily. This hurts Clark, especially against Wilson as Indiana is in seventh place at a 9-6 record.
Bueckers a threat
Dallas Wings second-year guard and reigning Rookie of the Year Paige Bueckers holds the advantage despite sitting behind Clark in scoring (18.7 ppg), assists (6.0), and rebounds (3.6).
Bueckers is the main reason Dallas turned it around after a 10-34 finish last season, and voters will likely take that into account. They’re off to a 9-6 start in 2026, which is good for sixth in the league.
Tracking the slide
Nearly a month into the WNBA regular season, Clark’s MVP price peaked at 37% on May 23. It’s slowly fallen off since, dropping below 30% on May 30, below 20% on June 7, and officially under 10% on June 18.
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