Summary of the day …
The prime minister’s press secretary has responded to the Caerphilly Senedd constituency byelection, which saw a victory for Plaid Cymru with Reform UK in second place and a huge swing away from Labour, by saying “By-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments. [We] understand people are disappointed with the pace of change”
Lindsay Whittle has been sworn in as the Plaid Cymru Senedd member for Caerphilly in Cardiff after taking 47% of the vote with 15,961. Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell polled 12,113 with Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe a distant third on 3,713
Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth said the result was “real evidence” people are turning to the party, and it was “clear” that “momentum is with Plaid Cymru now” heading into the 2026 Senedd election
Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster said “Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate” and that the result was another blow to Labour, showing the party’s “limp managerialism won’t cut it”
The leader of Reform UK, the Clacton MP Nigel Farage, said next year’s Senedd election – the first to be held under a proportional representation system – will be a “two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru”
Nick Thomas-Symonds, a Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, told Times Radio that Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly was “disappointing” and that the party had “a very tough fight” on its hands ahead of next year’s Senedd elections
In other news, the Liberal Democrats have decided gone on the offensive against Kemi Badenoch and the previous Conservative government over the collapse of the China spy trial, demanding “radical transparency” after it emerged that Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of the controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men
Your Party, the new left-wing movement led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, has secured its first elected representatives in Scotland after three Glasgow councillors defected from the Scottish Greens
Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in Downing Street for a bilateral meeting with Keir Starmer. Sarah Haque has been following that story on our Europe live blog
That is it from me, Martin Belam, today. Thank you for reading and all your comments. I will see you on the website somewhere soon.
Labour MP for Bradford East, Imran Hussain, who has spent a period during this parliament with the whip suspended, has said what he called the “devastating” loss in the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election was a “wake-up call” for his party.
In a post to social media, Hussain wrote:
The devastating loss in Caerphilly is a wake-up call for Labour. To rebuild support, we must return to real Labour values. Those with the broadest shoulders should bear the greatest burden. We should tax the very wealthiest and act urgently on the cost-of-living crisis.
Richard Burgon, Labour MP for nearby Leeds East, who also had the whip restored in February of this year, took a similar tack, posting “The historic loss of Caerphilly is the direct result of the disastrous direction taken by the Labour leadership.”
The Liberal Democrats have decided to go on the offensive against Kemi Badenoch and the previous Conservative government over the collapse of the China spy trial.
Earlier Peter Walker reported that Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of the controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men.
Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesperson Max Wilkinson has called for “radical transparency” from the Conservatives. In a statement he said:
Kemi Badenoch has well and truly been hoist by her own petard. We’ve long suspected that both the Conservatives and Labour had serious questions to answer over this case. Today’s revelations make a mockery of the Conservative leadership’s faux outrage over the past fortnight – they owe the public an apology for misleading them.
Now it’s time for Kemi Badenoch to answer some of the very questions she’s been so keen to ask. Did Matthew Collins meet with ministers between the initial draft and the final submission of the witness statement? And who were the mysterious “backchannels” referenced in Collins statements who were tasked with suppressing the questions of backbenchers while the Tories were in government? It’s time for some radical transparency from the Conservatives.
Last week Badenoch described Keir Starmer not moving to interfere in the case as “a shameful dereliction of duty”. Starmer said she was making “completely scurrilous allegations”.
PA Media reports that Lindsay Whittle has now been sworn in as the Plaid Cymru Senedd member for the Caerphilly constituency.
Tim Shipman in the Spectator’s Lunchtime Espresso newsletter has done his best to find some crumbs of comfort for Keir Starmer and the Labour party in the wake of Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election. He writes:
Hidden within this humiliation, I wonder whether there is good news for the prime minister. This was also a very disappointing result for Reform. Over breakfast I ran into both a major player from No 10 and a senior figure in Reform. The former was sanguine: “It’s not as if we expected to win.” The latter was chastened, saying he was “recovering” from the result.
The reason is that there seems to have been a colossal amount of tactical voting. “It shows that, the more it looks like Reform might win, the more people will try to stop them,” a Labour source said. If that is replicated in 2029, Starmer’s huge majority would evaporate but his chances of remaining in government with an alliance of progressive parties would increase. If the next election is a referendum on Starmer, that could be bad news for Labour. If it is a referendum on Nigel Farage, that could play into Starmer’s hands.
Updated
Lindsay Whittle and Rhun ap Iorwerth have made their way from Caerphilly to Cardiff, where they were greeted by Plaid Cymru Senedd members, supporters and activists ahead of Whittle being sworn in to represent Caerphilly in the Senedd after his by-election victory.
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Peter Walker is a senior political correspondent for the Guardian:
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
The case against the men, Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry, was dropped in September after prosecutors concluded that a conviction under the Official Secrets Act was not realistic without government evidence China posed a threat to the UK’s national security. Both Cash and Clark have consistently denied any wrongdoing.
Read more of Peter Walker’s report here: Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived in Downing Street for a bilateral meeting with Keir Starmer. My colleague Sarah Haque has been following that story on our Europe live blog.
Columnist Will Hayward offers his views on the Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election result, saying:
UK Labour have long taken Wales, the most stable brick in its red wall, for granted. Yet the party’s support has been crumbling for years, without it even realising. In the aftermath of the result I have heard Labour people talk about the need for a change of messaging, for the party to become more critical of Plaid’s stance on Welsh independence, for instance, or to differentiate Welsh Labour from UK Labour.
While this is undoubtedly needed it misses the fundamental issue here – that for a very long time Welsh Labour has ceased to be visibly improving the lives of people in Wales. Forget changing messaging. Labour controls the Welsh and UK parliaments. It will never be better equipped than it is right now to make change. It should be making meaningful change in the present.
You can read more of Will Hayward’s opinion piece here: Reform swaggered into Caerphilly, ready for a coronation. An unpleasant surprise lay in store
Downing Street: government understands 'people are disappointed with the pace of change'
The prime minister’s press secretary has responded to the Caerphilly Senedd constituency byelection, which saw a huge swing away from Labour, by saying that “Byelections are always difficult for incumbent governments,” PA Media reports.
It quotes them saying:
This one is no different, but we are determined to show the people of Caerphilly and working people across Wales the change the UK Government is delivering hand in hand with the Labour government in Wales.
(We are) determined to go further and faster, understand people are disappointed with the pace of change, and that is what the Government is relentlessly focused on delivering for working people in Wales and across the UK.
Updated
Here are some more words, via PA Media, from Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru. He is quoted as saying:
This [Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election] is a momentous result. The fact that it’s in the context of a Welsh general election in just six months’ time, with people here in this constituency embracing that vision of Plaid Cymru for the first time, shows me that we can take that vision to every part of Wales, and that there’s no part of Wales where we can’t win.
It’s clear that Reform were expecting to win here, and that we were expecting to see the leader of Reform at the count last night. It turns out that they were way behind Plaid Cymru, because the people of Caerphilly said we are not interested in that divisive politics.
I want to show them that Plaid Cymru shares that frustration, shares that anger at the way the merry-go-round of Conversative, Labour politics has let them down, but there’s a positive way of doing it.
That’s what Labour should have concentrated on, that’s what Plaid Cymru did, and what we will continue to do.
Reform UK’s Llŷr Powell, who came second in yesterday’s Caerphilly Senedd constituency by-election, has thanked voters on social media. In a post, he said:
A huge thank you to everyone who voted Reform yesterday. We didn’t get the change we wanted this time, but growing from 500 votes to over 12,000 shows how strong our movement has become. We’re just getting started.
Libby Brooks, the Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, has more on those Scottish Green defections to Your Party:
Your Party, the new left-wing movement led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana, has secured its first elected representatives in Scotland after three Glasgow councillors defected from the Scottish Greens.
The announcement comes ahead of Your Party’s first rally in Scotland, with Sultana speaking to what is trailed as a “sold-out crowd of 400 supporters” in Glasgow.
The former Scottish Green councillors Seonad Hoy, Dan Hutchison, and Leòdhas Massie announced they will form a group on the city council having joined Your Party.
Describing Your Party as “the largest step toward unity that I’ve seen on the left in my lifetime”, Hutchison said: “I’ve spent the last ten years fighting to get the Greens to be the left-wing force they think they are. But their MSPs have their heads deep in the sand, voting to cut budgets year after year and enabling the largest sell off of public land to the private sector.”
The Scottish Greens thanked the trio for their work, and pointed to the membership surge that their party has enjoyed since the election of two new co-chairs, Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay, who represent a younger generation of activists who came to political consciousness during the independence referendum.
A spokesperson added: “Our councillors will continue to lead the fight for their communities and against the billionaire profiteers who exploit Scottish workers and pollute our planet.”
Is there space in Scotland’s already crowded political landscape for Yur Party, with Reform gathering support on the right and the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Greens, Scottish Lib Dems and Alba battling for votes on the left? It is worth recalling that Momentum and Corbyn struggled to make the impact they did elsewhere in the UK in Scotland, precisely because of the presence of progressive left alternatives.
Then again, some SNP members at their recent conference were airing concerns that the party has moved too far to the centre, abandoning its progressives commitment on climate and gender for example. The Scottish Greens certainly hope to fill that gap – but now in Your Party they have a challenger.
Farage: next year's Senedd elections 'two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru'
The leader of Reform UK, the Clacton MP Nigel Farage, has delivered his social media verdict on the Caerphilly Senedd constituency result. In a post, Farage wrote:
At the start of polling day, I thought that we would get 12,000 votes and we did. I thought that number would be enough, but it wasn’t. The total collapse of the Labour vote to Plaid was to a party that people know well and to a popular local politician. The Senedd elections next year are a two-horse race between Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.
As a reminder these are the full results of the vote, which saw Lindsay Whittle elected:
Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru) 15,961 (47.38%, +18.98%)
Llyr Powell (Reform UK) 12,113 (35.96%, +34.25%)
Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour) 3,713 (11.02%, -34.94%)
Gareth Potter (Conservatives) 690 (2.05%, -15.29%)
Gareth Hughes (Green Party of England & Wales) 516 (1.53%)
Steve Aicheler (Liberal Democrats) 497 (1.48%, -1.25%)
Anthony Cook (Gwlad) 117 (0.35%)
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.23%)
Plaid Cymru won a majority of 3,848 (11.42%), representing a 26.96% swing from Labour to Whittle’s party. The electorate in the constituency is 66,895 and the turnout was 33,686 (50.36%, +6.52%).
Polly Toynbee’s latest column is up. She is asking: What kind of country puts its pensioners ahead of children in poverty?
Rhun ap Iorwerth: 'clear' that 'momentum is with Plaid Cymru now'
The Plaid Cymru leader has said the result in Caerphilly was “real evidence” that people are turning to the party, and that it it was “clear” that “momentum is with Plaid Cymru now” heading into the 2026 Senedd election.
PA Media reports that Rhun ap Iorwerth said:
It’s clear from the results here in Caerphilly that the momentum is with Plaid Cymru now, it hasn’t come from thin air.
We had our best-ever general election results last year, we’ve seen Plaid Cymru topping the polls for some time now.
What we have now is that real evidence through the ballot box of people putting their faith in Plaid Cymru in ways that they’ve never done before, and that all points to people embracing the chance of having a Plaid Cymru-led government for the first time.”
Jamie Grierson was at Caerphilly Castle for the Guardian
The triumphant candidate, Lindsay Whittle, accompanied by Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorweth, has addressed party supporters and press outside Caerphilly Castle.
To cheers and applause, Whittle said the voters in Caerphilly had created history, adding “I believe the world is watching Wales and watching an emerging nation start to control our lives again.”
Introducing his winning candidate, ap Iorweth said: “It’s a historic result for Plaid Cymru, one of the big victories in the history of our party. But it’s massively historic in terms of the journey that Wales is on as a nation, and says so much about the opportunity that faces us as a nation as we head into the Welsh general election in just six months time.”
Paula Surridge wrote for the Guardian earlier on the Caerphilly result, saying:
The result points to a new kind of electorate, who are far more willing to vote for “smaller” parties; in 2024, the two-party share (the proportion won by Labour and the Conservatives combined) dropped below 60% for the first time. In Caerphilly, this was certainly a two-party race – but neither of the supposed main parties were in it (Labour and the Conservatives had a combined vote share of just 13%).
We can never be sure why voters switched between parties without evidence that looks at individuals. Nonetheless, the result suggests voters may have been motivated to vote for Plaid Cymru to prevent Reform UK from winning the seat. This is, perhaps, the only crumb of comfort for Labour among the disappointment of a significant loss, as it is a dynamic the party will hope can be repeated elsewhere to its benefit.
You can read Paula Surridge’s analysis piece in full here: Plaid Cymru’s victory in Caerphilly points to a new kind of electorate
Three Scottish Green Party councillors in Glasgow and one of the party’s top candidates in the city have defected to Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s Your Party, PA Media reports.
Ellie Gomersall was second on the party’s regional list for Glasgow ahead of next year’s Holyrood elections. She is joined by councillors Dan Hutchison, Seonad Hoy and Leòdhas Massie, who become the first elected representatives the party has in Scotland.
Updated
Liz Saville Roberts: 'Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate'
Liz Saville Roberts, who is the Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster, has criticised the Labour leadership of Eluned Morgan in Wales and Keir Starmer in Westminster, and said that the Caerphilly result demonstrates that “Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate.”
In a post to social media, the MP for Dwyfor Meirionnydd said:
Reform threw everything at Caerphilly – Farage was seen there more than in Clacton. But Plaid Cymru’s hope beat Reform’s hate.
It’s another blow to Eluned Morgan and Keir Starmer - Labour’s limp managerialism won’t cut it.
Plaid’s bold message now drives momentum into 2026.
Whittle: 'world is watching an emerging nation start to control our lives again'
Newley elected Senedd member for Caerphilly, Lindsay Whittle, has said after his victory that “the world is watching Wales, and watching an emerging nation start to control our lives again.”
Speaking at a press event held at Caerphilly Castle, Whittle said:
Yesterday, the people of Caerphilly created their own history, and we put Caerphilly firmly on the map. I have received messages of goodwill, not only from all corners of Wales, but from Scotland. Can you believe, France? Can you believe, Australia, Spain and Canada?
And that is a mark of how important yesterday was to Wales, and the world. Because now I believe the world is watching Wales, and watching an emerging nation start to control our lives again.
Whittle drew laughter from Plaid Cymru supporters and activists by saying “our comms people, they’ve all gone pale” as he said he was about to use “the famous phrase that no one likes me using”, before urging the people of Wales to “grab your brains by the throat and take control of your lives again.”
He continued by saying he would “work like a Trojan for every single man, woman and child in this constituency”.
He said what an honour it was to him to be elected, adding “I am genuinely humbled. I’m a council house boy from the council estate there, and I’m proud to call this home.”
Rhun ap Iorwerth hails Caerphilly victory as 'historic' for Wales as a nation
The Caerphilly Senedd by-election result is “historic in terms of the journey that Wales is on as a nation”, Plaid Cymru’s leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has said.
Appearing at a press event at Caerphilly Castle alongside victorious candidate Lindsay Whittle, the Plaid Cymru leader said:
Is it a historic result for Plaid Cymru, one of the biggest victories in the history of our party. But it is also historic in terms of the journey that Wales is on as a nation, and says so much about the opportunity that faces us as a nation as we head into the Welsh general election in just six months time.
Turning to Whittle, a veteran of politics in the area, ap Iorwerth said:
We know how hard we worked for this victory, and we recognise how much faith and how much trust the people of Caerphilly put in you, Lindsay, and in Plaid Cymru to be their champions. And to be a champion for their community.
Reform UK’s MP for Ashfield – and chief whip of their five-strong Westminster group – Lee Anderson, has delivered his verdict on the Caerphilly result via social media, saying he was “disappointed”, but that Reform “will be back” in Wales. He posted:
Disappointed but....
We came second last night in Caerphilly but Reform UK soared from 500 votes a few years ago to over 12,000 yesterday. The Labour vote collapsed to 11% after being in control for over 100 years.
Yes, we know a lot of Labour voters voted tactically for Plaid to stop us winning. That’s politics and no complaints here, we have to win in the system we operate in. Yesterday was first past the post so tactical voting works.
Next year’s Senedd elections are proportional representation, so if Labour voters vote Plaid again it could see the Labour party wiped out altogether.
We polled 35% so we are in a good place in Wales. We will not give up on our Welsh cousins and a huge well done to Llyr Powell and our great team in Caerphilly. We will be back.
Updated
We are expecting Plaid Cymru to host a press event to celebrate Lindsay Whittle’s by-election outside Caerphilly Castle shortly. I will bring you any key lines that emerge.
Conservative party deputy chairman Matt Vickers has seized on the Caerphilly Senedd constituency as a chance to brand the government is “disastrous”.
Speaking on Sky News, PA Media reports he said:
People often vote to send a message in a by-election. And people have told Labour that they’re not happy with them. They’ve sent that message using the by-election.
It is Martin Belam with you now. Do feel free to contact me on martin.belam@theguardian.com if you spot typos, errors or think there is an omission.
What commentators are saying about significance of Caerphilly byelection result
Peter Walker’s take on the Caerphilly result is here.
And here is a round-up of what some other commentators are saying about it.
From Andrew Marr, the LBC broadcaster and New Statesman political editor
Caerphilly shows the wildness and unpredictable politics of 5-party competition coming to all of us soon
From the BBC’s political editor Chris Mason in his analysis
Labour, so long the victor of so many a south Wales political contest, humbled, pummelled, crushed - attracting just 11% of voters.
The Conservatives, so often the victor of many a UK-wide election - 2%.
Yes, you read that right - the two big beasts of Westminster politics managed just 13% of the vote between them.
From the New Statesman’s analysis by Harry Clarke-Ezzidio and Ben Walker
If Reform came as far as it did in Caerphilly so quickly, could it possibly, in time, win everywhere? Perhaps this isn’t the by-election to extrapolate from. As one of the whitest boroughs in all Britain, how telling can Caerphilly be about the rest of the country? A broader take is that Reform’s staunch progress here does blow open many seats in Britain – but not all. What is clear is that the old arithmetic, and assumptions, are done. Supposed safe seats are no longer safe seats. What were once nailed on types of voters are now up for grabs. The fever-pitch political scramble over Britain’s white voters in former industrial areas is reflective of this. Key to Labour winning again – everywhere – is getting many of these people back on side …
Caerphilly presents a massive headache for both Eluned Morgan, the Welsh Labour leader, and Keir Starmer. This isn’t some freak by-election; it is national opinion polling laid bare. Labour would do well to heed to lessons from this result. It didn’t have to be like this. Labour insiders hold their heads in their hands at how Plaid stole a march on them. “We lost the narrative on this one,” one said. If Caerphilly proves one thing, it is that narrative is everything. On every leaflet put out by Plaid the two-horse was not between the incumbent and challenger, but between challenger and challenger. This by-election result perhaps proves that such a notion isn’t partisan propaganda, but a new reality. That in Wales, now, it’s either Plaid or Reform. Not Labour.
From the politics professor Rob Ford on Bluesky
Obviously the focus is on Plaid, Reform and Labour but the Conservatives also fell drastically - to 2% and a lost deposit. Hardly a ringing endorsement from the Welsh valleys for their recent turn to the far right
Though 2% probably is an accurate reflection of support for their “Idi Amin plus plus” immigration policy.
From a thread on the results by Luke Tryl, the More in Common pollster
One thing I have heard in a few Welsh focus groups is people don’t like the fact there isn’t a Welsh reform leader. Worth not overplaying this (Reform got 36% without one) but at the margins it could be enough to alienate some voters still worried the party is overly “English”
From Will Hayward in a post on his Welsh politics Substack newsletter
This is a disaster for Reform. They poured everything into this. They banked on getting disengaged voters out to vote. But the problem with disengaged voters is they are, well, disengaged. They haven’t managed to mobilise their vote in the way they hoped.
This bodes very badly for them come the Senedd election next May. In Caerphilly they were able to spend a lot of time and resources making sure that as many of their voters as possible not only voted for them, but also were registered in the first place. Yet this wasn’t enough. When they are competing across all of Wales this will be even harder.
From Keiran Pedley from the pollsters Ipsos UK
Couple of hot takes from me:
1) Collapse in Labour vote extremely ominous ahead of Welsh elections next year
2) Could anti Reform tactical voting be a key factor at next GE?
That is all from me for today. Martin Belam is taking over now.
Alun Davies, the Labour MS (member of the Senedd) for Blaenau Gwent, told the Today programme that the Caerphilly result suggested the UK government was neglecting Wales. He said:
As I was talking to people in Caerphilly over the last two months - it became very clear to me that Welsh Labour is most successful when it is both Welsh and Labour.
Rooted in our Labour values, the NHS was born in my hometown and that represents the social justice values which are part of who we are. People felt we had moved away from that. People didn’t like the way we spoke, and sometimes dehumanised, refugees …
People know that the funding formula doesn’t work for Wales, they also know it works for Scotland and it has been amended for Northern Ireland and the UK government wouldn’t treat either Scotland or Northern Ireland in the way they treat Wales.
Here is Peter Walker’s analysis of the significance of the Caerphillly byelection result.
And here is his conclusion.
The key lesson from Caerphilly for every political leader, if not necessarily a new one: UK politics is moving at speed, with voter loyalties shifting and atomising in unprecedented ways. Those who cannot adapt will be crushed.
Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds dismisses claim Caerphilly result is specific 'defeat for Starmerism'
In an interview on the Today programme, Nick Thomas-Symonds, the Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, was asked about the claim that the byelection result was a “defeat for Starmerism”, but not for the Labour government in Cardiff. (See 7.10am.)
At first Thomas-Symonds said that he did not like responding to anonymous quotes, but that he accepted voters felt “frustration about the pace of change”.
When Justin Webb, the presenter, said that was exactly the point being made by the source who delivered the quote (associating “Starmerism” with change being too slow), Thomas-Symonds replied:
I don’t accept the point that’s being put in that quote at all.
I think politics is about what people face, the challenges they face in their everyday lives.
We always knew coming into government in July 2024, I think it’s an inheritance that’s probably the worst since 1945, in terms of the economic backdrop and the state of our public services together. We knew it was going to take time.
What the message that we’ve listened to on the doorsteps in Caerphilly is very much telling us is to really redouble our efforts on that delivery and making a difference in people’s everyday lives. And that’s exactly what we’re determined to do.
Compass is a pro-Labour group that supports progressive, pluralist cooperation and PR, and its director, Neal Lawson, has issued this statement about the Caerphilly result.
The voters of Caerphilly have shown two things: they will vote tactically for a progressive alternative to Reform, but they no longer view Labour as progressive.
Labour needs a massive reset at every level before the elections next May, to become both progressive and pluralist, or they will be wiped out everywhere.
How share of vote has changed in Caerphilly since 2021
Here is a Guardian graphic showing how the share of the vote in Caerphilly has changed between 2021, when the last Senedd elections were held, and now.
Updated
In an interview on the Today programme, David Bull, the Reform UK chair, said that the Caerphilly result was remarkable for his party because it was only four years old. He said:
Of course, it’s disappointing for us [not to win], but you also have to look at what an extraordinary result it was for us, because we’re only four years old.
At the last election, we polled 1.7% and to go to a meteoric 36% I think, by any sort of metric, is absolutely amazing.
This is misleading. Technically Reform UK has only been operating since 2021. But it was not launched then as a new party; all that happened was that the Brexit party, which has been formed by Nigel Farage in 2018, changed its name in response to the fact that Brexit had been achieved.
Farage set up the Brexit party after Ukip, which he had led, on and off for more than a decade, turned very far-right under a new leader. But Ukip is now just an empty shell and many of the people who worked for it, and supported it, when Farage was leader are now lined up behind Farage.
In organisational terms, Reform UK is a new party. But Farage has been a prominent figure in UK politics for more than two decades, which means he is arguably Britain’s longest-serving political leader, not its newest.
Labour supporters of tactical voting are finding some consolation in their party’s defeat in Caerphilly. These are from the former cabinet minister Andrew Adonis (who started his career in the SDP).
Plaid win in Caerphilly is huge - a large protean anti-Refotm coalition which swing behind the strongest non-Labour candidate able to beat Farage. Even bigger given that 11% surviving Labour vote.
Talk of Reform winning the next election is wildly premature
Reform’s Russian treason scandal doubtless played a part in swinging undecideds against them. Farage’s 17 appearances on Russia Today, and blaming the Ukrainians for their own invasion, won’t go away
The 50.4% turnout in the Caerphilly by election was far higher than for the last Senedd election and nearly as high as at last year’s general election. It is a seismic electoral moment
Adonis has been emboldened by the figures highlighted at 6.52am.
The campaign group Stand Up to Racism has described the Caerphilly byelection result as “a major victory for everyone committed to opposing racism and intolerance”, Nation.Cymru is reporting.
Perhaps the most memorably moment in the byelection campaign came in a TV debate where the Reform UK candidate was challenged by a woman who said that only 2.9% of people in Caerphilly were born outside the UK, and that her family was suffering because of Reform’s anti-immigrant campaigning. She said:
I have never felt so unwelcome in my own home town as I do since your party came into Caerphilly with all the rhetoric you bring in. I have to say to my sons please don’t go there. Please don’t do this. I blame you for that.
In his Nation.Cymru report, Martin Shipton says:
There are no small boats landing asylum seekers on the Welsh coast, so there was the need to manufacture a row over the Welsh government’s Nation of Sanctuary policy.
Reform picked up on the fact that around £55m had been spent on the programme over several years and made this the main theme of its campaign, alleging that public money was being squandered on asylum seekers who, it was strongly implied, were illegal immigrants who had arrived by small boat. A lie.
In fact, the great bulk of the money was spent on resettling Ukrainian refugees. Even after this was pointed out, Reform continued to spread lies about the matter.
They hadn’t counted on the fightback from members of the Caerphilly Ukrainian community, led by an articulate woman called Yuliia Bond, who spoke and wrote passionately about how generously they had been welcomed by the people of the constituency and how they were making positive contributions to the local community.
Updated
The leftwing Labour group Momentum is also saying the Caerphilly result shows the party needs to change. Sasha Das Gupta, its co-chair, says:
The drop in Labour support in traditional heartlands can only be described as an existential threat to the Party’s future.
Labour will lose more strongholds across the country unless it starts implementing policies that will transform the lives of working class communities.
Caerphilly result shows Labour must listen to voters about 'speeding up pace of change', UK minister says
Nick Thomas-Symonds, a Cabinet Office minister and MP for Torfaen in south Wales, told Times Radio that Labour’s defeat in Caerphilly was “disappointing” and that the party had “a very tough fight” on its hands ahead of next year’s Senedd elections.
He said voters were sending a message about “speeding up” change.
We will listen to the thousands of conversations that we had in Caerphilly about speeding up the pace of change.
In an interview on the Today programme, Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, admitted that some of the party’s support in Caerphilly came from people who were voting for his party to keep Reform UK out. He said:
Of course, there was an element of tactical voting. Certainly keeping Reform out was a part of that. I spoke with Labour members yesterday who were voting Plaid.
But that was not the main reason for Plaid’s victory, he said.
There was deep, deep disillusionment with Labour … Plaid’s postive message was being embraced …
It was people who supported Labour in the past, and other parties, who were seeing that positive offer from Plaid Cymru and coming to us, not begrudgingly, but embracing what we are saying as offering an alternative for government from May 2026.
Reform UK chair David Bull claims coming 2nd in Caerphilly on 36% 'amazing' result for his party
David Bull, the Reform UK chair, has described the Caerphilly byelection result as “amazing” for his party.
Even though Reform were beaten by Plaid, Bull said the rise in his party’s vote had been astonishing. He told BBC Breakfast.
In some ways disappointing for us, but actually it’s an amazing result on another hand, because actually we’re only four years old as a party.
At the last election, we got 1.7% and this morning we got 36%. That’s a meteoric rise for us, and I think actually pretty unprecedented in modern political history.
Bull referred to the “decimation” of Labour’s vote, and said the Conservatives were “wiped off that electoral map pretty much completely”.
Was Labour's loss in Caerphilly 'defeat for Starmerism', or verdict on Welsh government?
There is some evidence that Caerphilly result will trigger a blame game Labour. In a post for the BBC’s blog, Gareth Lewis quoted a Labour source, speaking before the result was announced, as describing a loss in the byelection as “defeat for Starmerism not for first minister Eluned Morgan”.
There is probably an element of truth in this. Keir Starmer and the UK Labour party are more unpopular in Wales than Eluned Morgan and the Welsh Labour party.
But only up to a point; Welsh Labour is unpopular too. This is what Archie Bland says on this in his First Edition newsletter.
Part of the problem is specific to Wales: Labour has seen its support crater since the donations scandal that ended the premiership of first minister Vaughan Gething last year. But there is also a clear sense that the unpopularity of Keir Starmer’s Westminster government has rebounded on the Welsh party despite repeated attempts by leader Eluned Morgan to draw a line between the two.
The ominous precedent is what happened to Scottish Labour at Holyrood elections in 2007, when the Scottish National party emerged victorious, ending an era of Labour dominance. Nor will Labour be helped by a new voting system which it brought in itself, with every seat now being allocated on a proportional basis. And the scale of its defeat suggests that it is leaking votes to Reform as well as Plaid.
In his Substack byelection analysis Will Hayward also argues that Labour’s campaign in Caerphilly was terrible. He says:
If Labour sees this as anything other than the dire warning it is, they could end up with single digit seats in May. Their campaign was dire.
The woefully contradictory messaging on saving libraries (when it was a Labour council closing them) managed to both highlight their own failings and exhibit their total inability to take responsibility for any of the challenges Wales faces.
As I drove into Caerphilly for the count there was a giant electronic billboard that read “only Labour can stop Reform”.The last minute attempts to suggest that a vote for anyone other than them was a vote for Reform was divorced from reality.
Archie Bland has a very good assessment of the significance of the Caerphilly result in his First Edition briefing.
Here is an extract.
The Caerphilly result is by no means an aberration, either in Wales or the UK as a whole. It confirms a persistent pattern: a surge for Reform at the expense of the Conservative party, and progressive voters – often disenchanted with Labour – coalescing around whoever is best placed to defeat them.
The pollster Luke Tryl noted that this is likely to operate in complicated and locally varied ways: “Whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically,” he wrote on X. He also noted that this effect will matter more in the next general election than the Senedd one, because a proportional system allows smaller parties representation from a lower vote share.
The big picture, [Guardian reporter Steven Morris] said, is that success for either Reform or Plaid would have been unthinkable not long ago. “It’s an incredible shift when you stand back. Labour will hope that they can start to build back a bit before a general election. But in many seats, it’s going to be a bunfight.”
And here is the full article.
Will Hayward, the Welsh political commentator, says the Caerphilly byelection result confirms that the left-voting block in south Wales easily outnumbers the right-voting blog. In a post on his Substack blog analysing the Caerphilly result, he has posted this graphic.
Hayward says:
This sums up Wales’ left of centre identity. Running on extreme right platforms doesn’t just alienate most of the voters, it actively makes them work against you.
Caerphilly byelection result suggests Labour really is on course to come third in Senedd elections next year, John Curtice says
On the Today programme John Curtice, the leading psephologist, has given his take on the Caerphilly byelection result. Here are his main points.
Curtice said the byelection result confirmed that Labour is facing the prospect of coming third in next year’s Senedd elections. He said:
The big question we were asking of this by election was, was it really the case that a Labour party that UK-wide is now at a record low of 20% in the opinion polls, and which in Wales saw its vote fall back last year, not least because of discontent with its record in Cardiff, particularly in respect to the NHS – did that mean that it was really the case, as some opinion polls have suggested, that Labour are potentially on course to come third in the Senedd elections next May, in a part of the country where once upon a time you did not really bother to count the vote, you just weighed it, Labour was so dominant? The firm, clear answer, from Caerphilly, to that question, is yes, it could happen.
He said the fall in Labour’s vote share in the Caerphilly byelection, at 35 points, was its biggest ever in a Welsh election.
Labour’s share of the vote was just 11%. It fell by 35 points. That’s the biggest drop that Labour have ever suffered in a by election in Wales. Labour are in severe trouble in Wales.
He said the byelection showed the Conservatives, the other traditional leading UK party, were also in big trouble in Wales. Their vote share was just 2%.
He said the result suggests Plaid Cymru is “now well placed to provide Wales with its next first minister”.
He said it would be a mistake to interprete the byelection result as evidence the Reform UK has peaked. He said:
Reform will be disappointed at coming second, with 36%, but I don’t think we should run away with the idea that this, in any way, suggests that Nigel Farage’s bubble is burst.
The truth is, 36% is pretty consistent with the 30 to 33% support that Reform have been getting regularly in the opinion polls.
It’s just that that isn’t going to be enough to win an election if you’re facing a strong alternative, which in this case was Plaid.
Caerphilly byelection results in full
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Adam Fulton.
The last time I was writing about Lindsay Whittle was more than 30 years ago. My first job in journalism was on the South Wales Echo, where I spent more than a year in the early 1990s in the Caerphilly office covering the Rhymney Valley. Whittle was leader of the Plaid group on the council at the time. Even then he was a veteran (he was first elected as a councillor in the 1970s) and he was a useful contact (friendly, approachable, decent, public-spirited), but not that useful, because Labour ran south Wales, and the idea that Plaid might ever replace them seemed fanciful.
Now Plaid seems to be on course to lead the government in the Senedd after the elections next year. Polling for the Senedd elections suggests Plaid and Reform UK will be the biggest parties, but neither are likely to get an outright majority, and Plaid has a much easier path to power, in some sort of alliance with Labour.
And Plaid’s prospects look even stronger if it can mobilise an anti-Reform vote, which is what seems to have happened in Caerphilly. A Survation poll earlier this month suggested Reform was narrowly ahead in the byelection. In the event, Plaid won comfortably. This is what the New Statesman’s Ben Walker posted on social media as the votes were being counted last night.
This is insane. Turnout 50%. Up on 41% in 21. Young Plaid organiser telling me of all the texts and DMs from apolitical friends that they’re turning out to stop Reform.
Here are the full results from PA Media.
Lindsay Whittle (PC) 15,961 (47.38%, +18.98%)
Llyr Powell (Reform) 12,113 (35.96%, +34.25%)
Richard Tunnicliffe (Lab) 3,713 (11.02%, -34.94%)
Gareth Potter (C) 690 (2.05%, -15.29%)
Gareth Hughes (Green) 516 (1.53%)
Steve Aicheler (LD) 497 (1.48%, -1.25%)
Anthony Cook (Gwlad) 117 (0.35%)
Roger Quilliam (UKIP) 79 (0.23%)
PC maj 3,848 (11.42%)
26.96% swing Lab to PC
Electorate 66,895; Turnout 33,686 (50.36%, +6.52%)
2021: Lab maj 5,078 (17.56%) - Turnout 28,914 (43.84%)
David (Lab) 13,289 (45.96%); Jewell (PC) 8,211 (28.40%); Mayfield (C)
5,013 (17.34%); Jones (Abolish) 1,119 (3.87%); Aicheler (LD) 787
(2.72%); Price (Reform) 495 (1.71%)
The Caerphilly result has shown how progressive tactical voting can be harnessed to fend off Reform UK, according to a pollster.
Luke Tryl, the UK director of polling group More in Common, posted on X:
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
So will this be the case in more seats and more importantly whereas Labour were the party that was squeezed here, in contests where they are the main contender against Reform can they, even as incumbents, get disillusioned progressives to come back and back them tactically.
For Reform this places a greater premium on growing their support pool and reaching more “soft Reform voters, turning out a highly motivated base clearly works in fragmented local council elections but isn’t alone enough in the face of tactical voting.
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Labour now 'a dying beast' in Wales, says Plaid's byelection winner Lindsay Whittle
Plaid Cymru’s winning candidate has been quoted as telling Labour after his victory that it is “definitely a dying beast”.
“You’d better get back to the drawing board, I would suggest, and think again because you are on your way out.”
Lindsay Whittle made the remarks after being asked what message the Caerphilly result had sent the party, PA Media reports.
The constituency’s new member of the Welsh parliament also said:
You are on your way out after 100-plus years. The Labour party, I’m afraid, now is definitely a dying beast.
It is a dying beast. They can go and lick their wounds but most dying beasts peacefully leave us.
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Plaid Cymru garnered a little over 47% of the vote in Caerphilly against Reform UK’s 36%, with Labour a distant third, says BritainElects.
In a post on social media the poll aggregator put the percentages at:
Plaid 47.4%
Reform 36.0%
Labour 11.0%
Conservatives 2.0%
Greens 1.5%
Liberal Democrats 1.5%
Gwlad 0.3%
Ukip 0.2%
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Plaid’s byelection win comes as a vote on the Welsh government’s budget is ahead and causing concern for the Labour administration.
Now Labour it will have only 29 of the 60 seats in the Senedd and deals will have to be made to get the 2026-27 budget through.
When passing its last budget in March, the Welsh government needed the vote of an opposition member to get it passed by a slim margin.
As Steven Morris has reported, Labour’s standing in Wales has dropped off a cliff since Vaughan Gething stepped down as first minister last year amid a donations scandal.
His successor, Eluned Morgan, has tried – but so far failed – to draw a line between Welsh Labour and the increasingly unpopular UK party.
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Returning to Lindsay Whittle’s acceptance speech after his big win, the Plaid Cymru candidate also said he had been “absolutely heartened” by the number of young people involved in the campaign.
Across the entire constituency, people not interested in politics have been – I’ve had selfies taken before, I’ve never had this.
At that point he addressed Cardiff and Westminster directly, saying “we’re telling you we want a better deal for every corner of Wales”.
Whittle, who will represent Caerphilly in the Senedd, said:
The big parties need to sit up and take notice. We’re at the dawn of new leadership, we’re at the dawn of a new beginning, and I look forward to playing my part for a new Wales.
And in particular, for the people of the Caerphilly constituency, I thank you with all of my heart. This is better than scoring the winning try for Wales against New Zealand in the Rugby World Cup.
Returning now to comments from Labor’s Huw Irranca-Davies, its most senior figure at the Caerphilly count also said the party needed to do “some really rapid reflection on the reasons” for its defeat.
I think we need to get back to focusing on those bread and butter issues, things such as cost of living, the money in people’s pockets, jobs and opportunities for young people here but also the quality of the towns, the environment.
Irranca-Davies, the deputy first minister of Wales, criticised Reform for focusing on immigration, saying the byelection campaign had been “characterised by messages of division and discord from one particular party”, and insisted Labour would fight back.
We’ve always been good at running an energetic election campaign. We have loyal volunteers who will come out and they will work the streets in a way that no other party will do. We’ll have the in-depth conversations.
Irranca-Davies also said Labour needed to remind people that Welsh Labour defended them when the Tories were in power in the UK government. Now Labor had “a compelling and serious forward offer here in Wales, helped by the UK government”, he said.
We’re starting to turn the corner. Our challenge is in the next six months saying to people, things will get better, hope, aspiration, and we can do it when we have two governments working together. And that’s our challenge, and it’s a big challenge.
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Welsh Labour’s leader, Eluned Morgan, says it has “heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly” and that it takes its share of the responsibility for the byelection loss.
A statement from Morgan, the first minister of Wales, said:
This was a byelection in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally. I want to thank our candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe - a good man who stood because of his desire to serve his community.
I congratulate Lindsey Whittle on his victory tonight. He returns to the Senedd, continuing his many decades of elected service to people in Caerphilly.
Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people’s lives has not been quick enough. We take our share of the responsibility for this result. We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger.
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Plaid Cymru’s byelection win in south Wales is a dramatic result signalling a sharp realignment in Welsh politics with repercussions for the whole of Britain, writes Steven Morris in his full report on the win.
Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party, which wants Wales to become independent, seized the Senedd (Welsh parliament) constituency from Labour and resisted a fierce challenge from Reform UK.
“Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster,” Plaid’s Lindsay Whittle said after his win. “This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning.”
See the full report here:
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Labour claims, despite defeat in Caerphilly, it's still 'all to play for' in next year's Senedd elections
The most senior Labour figure at the count, Huw Irranca-Davies – the deputy first minister of Wales – accepted the party would have to think deeply about the result but struck a defiant tone.
He said:
Some people are now writing us off. I have to paraphrase Mark Twain: rumours about death are greatly exaggerated. We are a formidable force and there are deep roots of Labour in these communities.
Going forward, what we need to do is actually be very bold, very brave and on the front foot and actually deal with the doom-mongers that only want to sow the politics of discord and discontent and get on the front foot again. Politics is always won by hope and aspiration and being on the side of people and saying you can have a better future.
Irranca-Davies also said:
There have been occasions before where Wales has lost seats that are deep red and on those occasions we’ve come back and we’ve bounced back. And the reason we’ve bounced back is we’ve come back having listened and come back with a compelling vision for people that is better than the doom and discord of people like Reform.
Reform is utter doom, utter misery, utter everybody else’s fault. And what we need to say to people is actually there is a different type of politics here. You’ve seen this not just within the UK over decades but internationally, the best leaders are the ones that can lift people’s heads up and say we can be better so much better than this. So it’s all to play for.
I have no difficulty being written off as my party as the underdog in this. Underdogs could bite back.
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Plaid now on course to lead Welsh government after next year's election, its leader Rhun ap Iorwerth says
The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, said the result meant his party was in the driving seat to take control of the Welsh government at next year’s Senedd elections.
He said:
We had a very clear message that we wanted to get across to people - the strength of our candidate, our commitment to this area where Plaid Cymru has roots going back so so many years and the fact that we as a party are in a place where we are setting sights on leading government from next year.
Plus also of course there was the element of wanting to stop Reform and showing that we could stop Reform here in Wales.
Ap Iorwerth said the party would now set its sights on winning power.
There is deep, deep disillusionment with Labour, both on a UK level and at a Welsh government level, and the people are looking for new leadership. A Plaid Cymru win here tonight is the clearest evidence yet of who is in the driving seat to lead government for next year. I want people to see Plaid Cymru as being that positive alternative.
We’ve known throughout this campaign that the results here would have a real bearing on how people would consider their options ahead of next May. This is about the future of Wales, about us, as a Plaid Cymru team, working with the people of Wales to change Wales forever.
Ap Iorwerth said Plaid had to show voters there was an alternative to Reform.
What we are trying to do is persuade them that there’s a positive alternative. We need parties with ideas, with the energy, with the drive, and a focus on the future of Wales. And I don’t think Reform have shown in anything that they’ve done that they are particularly interested in Wales. It’s all about getting Nigel Farage to Downing Street.
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The losing Reform candidate, Llŷr Powell, made no speech from the stage after the result was announced. Speaking to reporters, he said he was excited at what the party had built in Wales.
We decimated Labour. It’s a massive gain for us here.
Powell rejected the idea the result was a blow for Nigel Farage and said the party would continue to get more voters registered and would do well at next year’s full Senedd elections.
The losing Labour candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, said his party had run a positive campaign and had knocked on 75,000 doors.
He said Labour would campaign hard ahead of next year’s full Senedd elections.
Winner Lindsay Whittle says Wales 'wants a better deal'
In his acceptance speech, the winning Plaid candidate, Lindsay Whittle, joked he was not used to speaking first.
He asked people to remember the late Hefin David, whose sudden death led to the byelection. “He will be a hard act to follow. I will never fill his shoes but I promise I will walk the same path that he did.
“I hope this will be an exciting time for politics in Wales. I’ve been heartened by the number of young people who have been involved in this campaign.”
Whittle also said:
Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning.
Updated
How each candidate polled
The vote numbers for the eight candidates in the byelection have come in at:
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle – 15,961
Reform UK’s Llyr Powell – 12,113
Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe – 3,713
Conservatives’ Gareth Potter – 690
Greens’ Gareth Hughes – 516
Liberal Democrats’ Steve Aicheler – 497
Gwlad’s Anthony Cook – 117
Ukip’s Roger Quilliam – 79
Updated
Whittle to Westminster: 'Don’t take us for granted'
Lindsay Whittle has said the message to Westminster from his byelection win is:
Don’t take us for granted. That’s what’s happened in the past.
More on this shortly.
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Plaid beats challenge from Reform to win byelection
Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle has been announced as the byelection winner.
White received 15,961 votes, it was announced at the counting centre, while Reform’s Llyr Powell received 12,113.
Whittle has spoken – we’ll bring you his comments in a moment.
“It’s 14th time lucky for Lindsay Whittle,” the audience at the counting centre is told of the candidate, who has been a local councillor for half a century.
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The byelection candidates are being summoned to the stage at the Caerphilly leisure centre – a result could be immindent.
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Reform UK candidate Llŷr Powell denied the campaign had been all about immigration.
He said: “My campaign has been about government policies and where best to put money into Caerphilly.”
Powell said Reform had learnt a lot about campaigning, which would be put to good use at next year’s full Senedd elections.
When you look at where we started, we had a blank slate. We had to go out there and find a lot of voters. We found a lot of support. It’s been a great campaign. The collapse of the Labour vote is there for everyone to see. It’s been a betrayal what Labour has done around here.
Going into next year we’re in a really good place. A big part of what we were trying to do here is to master our campaigning. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems. We’re now a grassroots campaigning party.
There’s been some tough elements. The front door of my home was kicked in. Glue was put in the campaign office locks. It’s sad our democratic process has come under attack. My activists spoke to thousands of people despite the smears, fears and attacks.
Here are some of the latest images coming in during the vote count amid suggestions the Caerphilly result will be in within an hour and perhaps even half that.
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The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has arrived at the count, a sign that his party has done well.
We’re told Reform UK leader Nigel Farage won’t be here.
The Plaid candidate, Lindsay Whittle, said it had been an exciting campaign for him and his party.
I’ve had young people having selfies with me. One youngster jumped out of a car and told me I was his hero. That made me feel six-foot tall.
Whittle was also keen to pay tribute to Hefin David, whose sudden death in the summer led to the byelection.
Whittle knew David well and remembers a visit to Caerphilly’s twin town in Germany. It was cold and David needed to buy a new coat.
“I hate shopping but I went with him,” Whittle said.
Eventually they found a coat together. It led Whittle to nickname him “The man from C&A” after the fashion brand.
“He was a good man,” Whittle said.
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Reform UK candidate Llyr Powell says he has been subjected to “attacks” on his property and office during the byelection campaign.
“It’s quite sad that our democratic process has come under attack from a militant group out there,” Powell told the BBC at the Caerphilly counting centre, adding that he was “proud” of the campaign he and his team had run.
He was also asked about an instance at the byelection debate when an audience member said Reform’s “rhetoric” had made her family feel “unwelcome” in the town.
Powell told the broadcaster he was “surprised” by the remark because his campaign “has been about government policies and where best to put money”.
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The UK-wide significance of the election is shown in the number of journalists at the count in a leisure centre in Caerphilly – 83 were accredited.
“Usually we have the local BBC and the Caerphilly Observer,” said one party worker.
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Voter turnout tops 50%
The Caerphilly byelection turnout was 50.43%, according to reports, with a total of 33,736 constituency ballot papers being included in the count.
The turnout figure is being described as a historic high for a Senedd byelection and for a Welsh devolved byelection.
PA Media says the 50.43% turnout contrasts with the figure for the 2018 Alyn and Deeside byelection at just 29.1%.
That was the last Senedd byelection before the death of Labour MS Hefin David triggered the poll in Caerphilly.
Overall turnout, excluding spoilt or disallowed ballot papers, in the 2021 Senedd elections was 46.6%.
There has never been a national turnout higher than 50%.
Speaking at the Caerphilly byelection count, Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she felt “excited and frightened”.
I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.
I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us.
One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this byelection or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time it was one or the other.
PA Media also quoted Jewell as saying:
No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform.
The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this byelection tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused.
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Labour has long held the Caerphilly Senedd and Westminster constituencies but, unless opinion polling is wide of the mark, the party is likely to be beaten into third this week with either Plaid or Reform UK seizing the Welsh parliament seat.
As Steven Morris has reported, Plaid appeared to be picking up Labour votes disenchanted with the party’s performance both in Cardiff and Westminster while Reform hoovered up traditional Conservative voters and those impressed by its promises to end what it calls the “mass immigration agenda” of the other two parties.
The Plaid Cymru candidate, Lindsay Whittle, who has been a local councillor for half a century, wants to win for two reasons – to further the cause of his beloved Plaid and to keep out Reform.
“Labour is facing annihilation,” he said. “The Labour tree has finally died. The roots have gone and it’s dead.”
If Labour loses in Caerphilly it will be a huge blow for the party that has dominated politics in Wales for a century. It faces an even bigger challenge next year when full Senedd elections take place.
If it loses control of the Welsh government – and Reform does well – it will be seen as a signal of political transformation in the UK.
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Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK braced for results of Caerphilly byelection
Hello and welcome to our live coverage as political leaders brace for the results of a byelection in Caerphilly that could mark a historic shift in Welsh politics.
Labour has run the Senedd (Welsh parliament) since the devolved administration was established in 1999, and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency.
In early polling before the vote, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year. The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election in May and is likely to be treated as such by the victorious party.
The byelection also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign. When passing its budget in March, the government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through.
While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the budget vote in January could be even more difficult if the party loses the Caerphilly seat.
Nigel Farage pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign in backing the Reform UK candidate, Llyr Powell. Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a longstanding councillor in the Penyrheol ward and the leader of the group on Caerphilly council. The Labour candidate is Richard Tunnicliffe, a financial analyst and publisher.
The candidates fielded by other parties are Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, and Anthony Cook for Gwlad, a pro-independence party. Steve Aicheler is running for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Quilliam is the candidate for Ukip.
The byelection was called after the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016. There will be an inquest into his death in April.
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