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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Nick Fletcher

Cadbury misses out on market rally

An opening jump on Wall Street has breathed a little life into the London market.

With no news yet on the $700bn (£380bn) bank bail-out, US investors are nonetheless betting that the plan will receive the necessary approval from Congress. So the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up more than 130 points, which has helped lift the previously moribund FTSE 100 by 39.7 points to 5135.3.

Where we go from here if the plan is agreed is another matter, but it is probably a better place than if it collapses.

Insurers - now a protected species of course, at least from-short sellers - are leading the way in the UK, with RSA Insurance up 12% to 160.7p. RSA has also been lifted by continuing bid talk, although the middle of a credit crunch may not be the best time to buy a near-£5bn insurance company.

Missing out on the fun is confectionery group Cadbury, down 4.5p to 596.5p after Citigroup moved its recommendation from hold to sell and cut its price target from 670p to 570p.

The bank believes Cadbury faces a major increase in input costs in 2009, particularly given a 45% rise in cocoa prices so far this year.

Nor does it feel a bid from the likes of Kraft is imminent. Such a deal would make sense, said Citi, but Kraft already has high borrowings, it has domestic issues such as losses in market share to deal with, and the current financial and economy uncertainty is not a good background for a bid.

Citi analyst Jeff Stent said: "We believe that investors should not be willing to pay a premium for the possibility of Cadbury falling prey to a bid."

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