While it’s true in watching North Carolina win six of its last seven games, the Tar Heels finally seem to be trending in the right direction. Winning on the road this week at Clemson on Tuesday and at Duke on Saturday would be the kind of tangible proof that secures automatic NCAA tournament bids.
That’s not conjecture, that’s according to the NCAA’s NET rankings. Now in its third season of use, the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) replaced the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) as a reference guide for the NCAA tournament selection committee. It’s not the only tool they use to consider bids and seedings for teams, but it could be leaned on a bit more in this pandemic season where resume comparisons will be tougher due to canceled games and a scaled-back non-conference slate.
The Tar Heels (11-5, 6-3 ACC) have yet to record a Quadrant I victory in four tries. Both Clemson (No. 59) and Duke (No. 60) would qualify as such. A Quad I win is considered beating a top-30 team at home, a top-50 team at a neutral site, or a top-75 team on the road.
That’s quite the role reversal for the Heels and Tigers. Usually, a borderline Clemson team is needing a marquee win over UNC to get it off the tournament bubble. Now it’s Carolina that could use a win on Tuesday to firm its tournament footing. Its best wins currently are over No. 57 Stanford at a neutral site and at home against No. 51 Syracuse, which are both considered Quad II.
UNC coach Roy Williams isn’t mentioning NCAA tournament positioning when he talks to his team about playing the Tigers. He tries to keep their focus strictly on what’s next.
“I’ve never really looked down the line very much at all,” Williams said on the ACC coaches call Monday, adding that he had to remind a reporter looking ahead to the Duke game that he’d only talk about Clemson. “It’s old school and it’s a cliche, but I really do just look at the next game.”
The Tigers (10-5, 4-5) have played erratically since having to pause their program due to positive COVID-19 tests. Yet they still have more Quad I wins than any team in the ACC despite losing four of their last five games. Clemson beat Alabama, Florida State and Purdue and is 3-5 in that category. No team in the ACC has a winning record against Quad I teams.
Carolina had its chance early in the season to get quality NET wins in nonconference games against Texas (No. 14) and at Iowa (No. 6), but fell short both times. Most seasons, its win over Kentucky would be highly valued, but the Heels’ neutral site win over the Wildcats (No. 74) this season fell into Quad II.
The Heels seem better suited now for notching marquee wins than they did after stumbling to an 0-2 start in ACC play. Over their last five games, they’ve averaged 79.4 points per game, which is an increase of their average of 72.2 through their first 11 games. And UNC has shot better than 50% from the field in four of its last five halves of play.
“We put ourselves in a pretty tough hole going 0-2 at the start, but I kept saying at that time, ‘Hey, guys, it’s just a small portion of a long season, let’s just relax a little bit and play,’ ” Williams said. “...We’re trying to get better every single day. Today is practice. Tomorrow’s a game. Let’s get better during the game. That’s what we talked about more than just trying to foresee what may happen down the stretch.”
As of Monday, the Heels are projected as a No. 10 seed by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com has the Heels as a No. 12 seed playing in the First Four. Bracketmatrix.com, which compiles a wide range of tournament projections, had UNC in 78 of 80 total brackets with an average seed of 9.7.
One thing Williams did want known about the postseason was his stance on the possibility of team’s opting out of the ACC tournament either to try and make up postponed games or avoid risking COVID exposure to wait for the NCAA tournament to begin.
Carolina will not be one of those teams that considers it if it’s left up to Williams.
“You know what opting out means? It means you freaking quit,” Williams said. “Whether it’s a team or an individual, whatever, opting out means you quit and that bothers me. It bothers me.”
