There were a handful of upsets in Week 13 that created plenty of shuffling in the standings.
Football is at its best when outcomes aren’t predictable, but it must be maddening to be a Panthers fan. On Monday, they laid an egg in prime time against the 49ers. Six days later, they delivered arguably the biggest upset of the season, defeating the Rams, 31–28.
The Texans also upset the Colts, helping their playoff hopes and the Jaguars’, who are now in first place in the AFC South. As for the holiday games on Thursday and Friday, all four underdogs won, including the Bears, who now have control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC thanks to the Panthers coming through as a 10-point underdog against the Rams.
After what transpired in Week 13, it’s best to avoid looking ahead and let the games play out. Nothing is a given, including Mike Tomlin delivering another winning season for the Steelers. The home crowd was not happy with Pittsburgh’s embarrassing effort in the 26–7 loss against Buffalo, as fans chanted “Fire Tomlin.” Suddenly, there’s a chance for the Bengals to steal the AFC North after the Ravens and Steelers played hot potato with the division lead.
We’ll take a look at the divisional races across the league, but first let’s start with what we learned from coach Brian Schottenheimer and the Cowboys during their entertaining 31–28 upset of the Chiefs on Thanksgiving.
Brian Schottenheimer was the right coaching hire for Cowboys
There was plenty of criticism for Cowboys owner and GM Jerry Jones on his decision to promote Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach. Dallas ignored Bill Belichick and didn’t have much interest in the Ben Johnson sweepstakes.
Now, we’re starting to see why the Jones family decided to go with Schottenheimer, who clearly has the respect of his players due to his leadership traits, offensive prowess and knack for making the right decisions on and off the field. In a short span, Schottenheimer has had to navigate the Micah Parsons trade, the Marshawn Kneeland tragedy and the brief benching of his star receivers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Despite all the obstacles, the Cowboys (6–5–1) are back in the playoff race with a three-game winning streak, including beating last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and Chiefs, in a span of four days.
Schottenheimer was the right person to rally the team after the death of Kneeland. He expressed support for defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus after a rocky first two months, whose unit has improved and overcome the departure of Parsons. And Lamb and Pickens responded from the benching by stepping up against Las Vegas, Philadelphia and Kansas City.
Clearly, the Cowboys respect every decision their rookie coach has made. Schottenheimer deserves more attention for Coach of the Year, which might go to Johnson, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel or even Panthers coach Dave Canales.
Regardless of whether or not Schottenheimer wins the award, the Cowboys have found their coach, one who provides epic victory speeches.
Mike Tomlin’s winning record streak could end this season
The NFL is filled with surprises, but you could at least count on Tomlin ending a season with a .500 or better record, which he’s done the past 18 years since being hired in Pittsburgh.
But the most predictable streak in the NFL is now in jeopardy after the Steelers lost to the Bills and dropped to 6–6. Pittsburgh gained control of the AFC North with Baltimore’s loss to Cincinnati on Thanksgiving, but quickly relinquished it.
Aaron Rodgers was a nonfactor on Sunday, operating a sluggish offense that had only 166 yards. To make matters worse, the middle-aged QB who turns 42 on Tuesday, left briefly after taking a massive hit from Joey Bosa. Rodgers sustained a hand injury that forced him to miss last week’s loss against the Bears.
Rodgers’s best days are behind him, giving the Steelers and their stagnant offense little hope at stark improvement over the final five games of the regular season. They have to face the Ravens twice, the Dolphins, Lions and Browns. It’s not a given that the Ravens (6–6) win the AFC North because of Lamar Jackson’s struggles, but they can at least rely on Derrick Henry and a much-improved defense. The Bengals (4–8), a team I’ve forked multiple times, are also in the mix because of Joe Burrow’s return and Thursday’s upset of the Ravens.
The Steelers would be lucky to win three more games to extend Tomlin’s streak to 19 seasons. It might be time for the Steelers to listen to their fans, many of which have gotten tired of the dull one-and-done playoff appearances from Tomlin.
C.J. Stroud is the key in the three-team AFC South race
Texans coach DeMeco Ryans had many reasons to stick with Davis Mills as the starting quarterback, but he couldn’t go away from Stroud, who helped Houston reach the divisional round the past two seasons.
Stroud has struggled for long stretches since his sensational rookie year in 2023. Still, the two playoff wins he authored were enough for him to not lose the trust from the organization, while Mills went 3–0 as Stroud was sidelined due to a concussion.
With pressure mounting, Stroud again delivered when it mattered most, spreading the ball around in a critical 20–16 victory over the Colts. Jacksonville benefited from Houston’s win because it leapfrogged Indianapolis for first place in the AFC South. But if Stroud (22-of-35, 276 yards, one interception) builds off what he did Sunday, the Texans (7–5) could very well end the year as three-time AFC South champions.
Houston has upcoming games at Kansas City, vs. Arizona, vs. the Raiders, at the Chargers and vs. the Colts. The Jaguars (8–4) play the Colts (8–4) twice in the final five weeks, with home matchups against the Jets and Titans and a road meeting against the Broncos. Outside of their AFC South schedule, the Colts face the 49ers at home and the Seahawks on the road.
All three teams have challenging schedules, so there’s no point in trying to predict their wins and losses. But it’s hard to bet against Houston to win the division because of its elite defense and Stroud’s track record of stepping up when it matters most.
Stroud, the No. 2 pick in 2023, had a similar up-and-down season last year, but helped the Texans defeat the Chargers in the wild-card round. Houston could win at least another playoff game this season, with how Stroud got contributions from Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz and rookie Jayden Higgins during the statement win over the Colts.
Stroud could see a massive contract extension in the offseason if he continues winning when it matters most.
Rams’ upset loss to Panthers will cost them down the stretch
I’ll refrain myself from excessively criticizing the Rams for losing to the Panthers, given what else transpired in Week 13. Any team can be beaten on any given week, but No. 1 seeds are supposed to win games like the one Los Angeles had in Carolina.
The Rams (9–3) will be kicking themselves if they don’t capture the No. 1 seed and the NFC West title as a result from Sunday’s upset loss against a 10-point underdog. The 49ers (9–4) are now back in the NFC West race, and the Seahawks (9–3) now have the same record as the Rams and are in the mix for the No. 1 seed. Also, Chicago has the best record in the NFC because it holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles due to a better conference record, 6–2 to 4–3.
On Sunday, the 49ers and Seahawks cruised against the Browns and Vikings, respectively. On Friday, the Bears proved they’re for real after leaning on their rushing attack to defeat the Eagles (8–4), another team in contention for the top seed, one that holds a win over the Rams.
Again, Los Angeles’s loss in Carolina could have multiple consequences, especially because it fell to a team within the conference. The Rams are capable of winning out, but they have a tough four-day stretch in December, with a home game vs. the Lions before a Thursday night showdown in Seattle.
Another letdown game from the Rams could be the difference in them starting the postseason at home as a top seed or on the road as a wild-card team. They lost a bulk of their leeway with the setback in Carolina.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as C.J. Stroud, Texans Shake Up the Playoff Picture in Upset-Filled Week 13.
